US embassy cable - 05PARIS2962

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002962 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: 
EGYPT IRAQ: CALIPARI INVESTIGATION EU-U.S. RELATIONS - EU 
CONSTITUTION 
PARIS - MONDAY, MAY 02, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: EGYPT 
2. IRAQ: CALIPARI INVESTIGATION 
3. EU-U.S. RELATIONS - EU CONSTITUTION 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
THE REFERENDUM ON THE EU CONSTITUTION AND PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S 
TEN YEARS IN OFFICE ARE TWO OF TODAY'S MAJOR FRONT-PAGE 
STORIES. A NEW POLL ON VOTER INTENTION ON THE EU CONSTITUTION 
CONDUCTED ON BEHALF OF LE MONDE, RTL RADIO AND LCI TELEVISION 
REPORTS THAT THE "YES" LEAD BY 52 PERCENT. BUT A SIMILAR POLL 
CONDUCTED FOR LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE INDICATES THE "NO" 
WINNING BY THE SAME 52 PERCENT. ANOTHER POLL IN LE FIGARO ON 
CHIRAC'S POPULARITY INDICATES THAT 38 PERCENT OF THE FRENCH 
SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT, AND 57 DO NOT. BUT PREVIOUS POLLS SHOW 
THE CHANGING NATURE OF PUBLIC OPINION FOR FRENCH PRESIDENTS, A 
POINT RAISED IN THE LE FIGARO EDITORIAL BY YVES THREARD. 
 
THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION IS ALSO DEBATED IN AN OP-ED IN LEFT- 
OF-CENTER LIBERATION WITH REGARD TO THE U.S., AND EUROPE'S 
POSITION AS EITHER A "VASSAL OR AN EQUAL" OF THE U.S. (SEE 
PART C) 
 
ON THE INTERNATIONAL FRONT THE NEW FACE OF TERRORISM IN EGYPT 
IS ANALYZED, WHILE SEVERAL REPORTS ARE DEVOTED TO THE 
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN ROME AND WASHINGTON OVER THE PENTAGON'S 
CONCLUSIONS REGARDING THE CALIPARI ACCIDENTAL SHOOTING IN 
IRAQ. (SEE PART C) 
 
CATHOLIC LA CROIX CARRIES A PORTRAIT OF ANN VENEMAN, FORMER 
U.S. AGRICULTURE SECRETARY AND NEW HEAD OF UNICEF: "HER 
NOMINATION CANNOT BE EXPLAINED BY HER EXPERIENCE THE PLIGHT OF 
CHILDREN IN THE WORLD, BUT RATHER BY HER CLOSENESS TO THE 
WHITE HOUSE, AN ASSET IN THE ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE RELATIONS 
BETWEEN THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE UN, WHICH HAVE SUFFERED SINCE 
THE WAR IN IRAQ." 
 
THE CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK ON THE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION TREATY 
IS REPORTED IN LE FIGARO. A SEPARATE REPORT INDICATES HOW 
IRAN, "IN SPITE OF THE RISKS INVOLVED, CONTINUES TO ATTRACT 
FOREIGN INVESTORS." RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY L'EXPRESS IN ITS 
REPORT ON THE CONFERENCE COMMENTS: "IF THE NEGOTIATIONS 
UNDERWAY WITH IRAN FAIL, THE AMERICANS ARE READY TO HAND OVER 
THE ISSUE TO THE UNSC, AND DO NOT EXCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF 
REVERTING TO FORCE." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: EGYPT 
 
"INNOVATIONS" 
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/02): "IF MUBARAK 
HAS ACCEPTED THE IDEA OF CHANGE FOR EGYPT, IT IS BECAUSE 
CHANGE HAS COME TO EGYPT. MUBARAK'S SUCCESSION REVEALS 
INTERNAL GENERATIONAL AND POLITICAL CONFRONTATIONS. THE NEW 
GENERATIONS MARCHING IN THE STREETS ARE BETTING ON A 
CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY. UNFORTUNATELY ISLAMIC TERRORISTS ARE 
ALSO INNOVATING, USING A SORT OF DECENTRALIZED ORGANIZATION 
FOR DEADLY ATTACKS. IN A COUNTRY KNOWN FOR ITS POLITICAL 
IMMOBILITY, THE TEMPTATION TO PIT ONE GROUP AGAINST THE OTHER 
IS GREAT. EGYPT, FOR THE MOST PART, IS A MILITARY 
DICTATORSHIP. MUBARAK IS FACING TWO CHOICES TYPICAL OF 
AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES: OPENING THE DOOR TO CHANGE, WITH THE 
RISKS INVOLVED, OR USING MORE AUTHORITY, AND RISKING AN 
EXPLOSION." 
 
"A NEW GENERATION OF TERRORISTS" 
PIERRE GARRETT IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/02): 
"SPECIALISTS IN EGYPT'S ARMED ISLAMISM ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE 
EMERGENCE OF A NEW GENERATION OF TERRORISTS, YOUNGER, MORE 
DESPERATE AND LESS EASY TO CONTROL. THIS NEW FORM OF TERRORISM 
IS MORE INFORMAL, FEEDS ON DOMESTIC FRUSTRATIONS AND REGIONAL 
TENSION, SUCH AS THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT AND THE WAR 
IN IRAQ." 
 
"IN CAIRO, TERRORISM, FAMILY-STYLE" 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR (05/02): "THIS IS THE FIRST TIME 
WOMEN TERRORISTS HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN ATTACKS IN EGYPT. THE 
POSSIBILITY SEEMED SO UNLIKELY THAT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FIRST 
BELIEVED THE ATTACKERS WERE MEN DRESSED AS WOMEN. THIS TURN OF 
EVENTS IS A WORRISOME SIGN OF THE CHANGES OPERATING IN EGYPT'S 
TERRORISM. IT HAS EXPERTS CONCERNED ABOUT A NEW WAVE OF 
ATTACKS SIMILAR TO THE ONES IN THE 90S. EGYPT IS FACING A NEW 
GENERATION OF FUNDAMENTALISTS WHO ARE PARTICULARLY OPPOSED TO 
THE WEST. THEY FEED ON THE COUNTRY'S DETERIORATING ECONOMIC 
SITUATION AND ITS ABSENCE OF DEMOCRACY. THEY ARE ALSO ANNOYED 
WITH MUBARAK'S RELATIONSHIP WITH WASHINGTON." 
 
IRAQ: NEW GOVERNMENT AND CALIPARI INVESTIGATION 
 
"A DIPLOMATIC INCIDENT BETWEEN ROME AND WASHINGTON" 
RICHARD HEUZE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (05/02): "THE 
OFFICIAL U.S. REPORT ON THE SHOOTING DEATH OF NICOLA CALIPARI 
APPEARED SO FAR FROM THE TRUTH THAT SYLVIO BERLUSCONI'S 
GOVERNMENT REFUSED TO CO-SIGN IT. ITALY'S OWN INVESTIGATION 
AND CONCLUSIONS DIFFER COMPLETELY FROM WASHINGTON'S. FOR THE 
AMERICANS, THE FAULT LIES WITH THE ITALIANS, WHO FAILED TO 
INFORM THE U.S. THAT ITALIAN INTELLIGENCE WAS IN IRAQ. IF ONE 
IS TO BELIEVE THE OFFICIAL ITALIAN VERSION, THIS IS A BLATANT 
LIE. THIS AFFAIR IS PUTTING BERLUSCONI IN AN IMPOSSIBLE 
SITUATION. HE DOES NOT WANT TO PUT HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE 
U.S. IN JEOPARDY. BUT SOMEHOW HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ELUDE THE 
QUESTION OF ITALY'S MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ." 
 
"IT IS ROME'S FAULT" 
ERIC JOZSEF IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/02): "IT IS 
ITALY'S FAULT. THE U.S. IMPLICITLY SUGGESTED THAT THE 
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FIRING SHOTS THAT KILLED CALIPARI LIES 
WITH THE ITALIANS FOR NOT INFORMING THEIR ALLIES OF THEIR 
OPERATION. THE MOST EMBARRASSING DIVERGENCE BETWEEN WASHINGTON 
AND ROME HAS TO DO WITH COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO ALLIES. 
DID THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES CHOOSE NOT TO INFORM THE 
AMERICANS? IT IS A FACT THAT WASHINGTON HAS NEVER ACCEPTED TO 
NEGOTIATE WITH HOSTAGE TAKERS." 
 
EU-U.S. RELATIONS - EU CONSTITUTION 
 
"A VASSAL EUROPE OR AN EQUAL EUROPE?" 
JUSTIN VAISSE IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (05/02): "WHEN IT 
COMES TO EUROPE AND THE EU CONSTITUTION, WE MUST KEEP IN MIND 
THE POSITION OF EUROPE'S FOREIGN PARTNERS, AND IN PARTICULAR 
THAT OF THE U.S. LET US NOT MAKE ANY MISTAKE HERE: A REJECTION 
OF THE TREATY WOULD BE RECEIVED WITH A FEELING OF VICTORY BY 
WASHINGTON'S NEO-CONSERVATIVES, ESPECIALLY IF IT RESULTED FROM 
FRANCE'S VOTE. FROM WOLFOWITZ TO BOLTON AND RUMSFELD, THE 
REJECTION OF THE TREATY WOULD COMFORT THE UNILATERALIST AND 
WEAKEN THE MULTILATERALISTS IN THE INTERNAL U.S. DEBATE ABOUT 
WHO DECIDES AMERICA'S FOREIGN POLICY. THE DEBATE ON THE EU 
CONSTITUTION IS NOT ONLY TAKING PLACE IN EUROPE. IN 
WASHINGTON, AS IN EUROPE, TWO VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE ARE IN 
OPPOSITION. THE FIRST, WHICH DOMINATES IN WASHINGTON, BUT ALSO 
IN GREAT BRITAIN AND EASTERN EUROPE, CALLS FOR A `NO' VOTE AND 
REPRESENTS A VISION OF THE WORLD DOMINATED BY THE U.S., `THE 
BENEVOLENT EMPIRE' WHICH MUST BE HELPED BY ITS ALLIES WITHOUT 
ASKING QUESTIONS. THE SECOND VISION, WHICH IS THAT OF THE 
DEMOCRATS AND A FEW REALISTS AMONG THE REPUBLICANS, CONSIDER 
THAT UNILATERALISM IS DANGEROUS AND THAT THE U.S. MUST LISTEN 
AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHAT ITS ALLIES HAVE TO SAY. THIS 
VISION, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THAT OF MOST EUROPEANS, REQUIRES A 
EUROPEAN UNION THAT CAN BE HEARD ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE TO 
WEIGH IN ON U.S. DOMESTIC POLICY AND TO DIRECT AMERICA TOWARDS 
COOPERATION RATHER THAN HEGEMONY. IN OTHER WORDS, THE INTERNAL 
BALANCE OF POWER IN WASHINGTON REFLECTS THE STATUS OF THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: A DIVIDED AND WEAKENED EUROPE DEPRIVES 
THE MULTILATERALISTS OF SUPPORT AND PARTNERS. REJECTING THE EU 
CONSTITUTION WOULD STRENGTHEN THE UNILATERALISTS. WITH THE 
U.S. CONTINUING TO PROMOTE EUROPE'S CONSTRUCTION ONLY WHERE IT 
BENEFITS THEM: FREE TRADE, TURKEY'S EU MEMBERSHIP, BUT 
DIVIDING EUROPE TO BETTER IMPOSE ITSELF WHERE ITS INTERESTS 
ARE. A COHERENT EUROPE CAN HELP TO BUILD A BETTER WORLD IN AN 
EQUAL PARTNERSHIP WITH THE U.S. A DIVIDED AND LESSER EUROPE 
CAN ONLY LEAD TO THE PASSIVE VINDICTIVENESS OF THE IMPOTENT: 
ANTI-AMERICANISM." WOLFF