US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM832

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000832 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: 4/25/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TZ 
SUBJECT: Tanzania Elections Update 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 801 B) Dar es Salaam 772, C) 
Dar es Salaam 732, D) Dar es Salaam 711 and previous 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The next week or so will see 
several decisive developments in voter registration, 
nomination of candidates and preparation for the 
October elections in Tanzania and on Zanzibar.  The 
following is a round up of the most recent 
developments.  End Summary. 
 
Voter Registration Draws to a Close on Zanzibar . . 
. 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2. (U) To compensate for the irregularities and 
political interference that marred voter 
registration in Zanzibar?s Urban West Region, the 
Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) extended voter 
registration beyond the original April 22 end date. 
Voter registration continued through the April 26 
National Day holiday.  The ZEC has not exercised its 
option to extend registration even further, so it 
would seem that it is satisfied that every Zanzibari 
who wanted to register has now had a chance to do 
so.  Some CCM partisans complained anonymously to 
the press about the extension; they seemed 
particularly incensed that the ZEC invited the 
people who had been denied registration to file a 
?form 2-D? and appeal the denial. 
 
. . . and on the mainland 
------------------------- 
 
3. (U) Meanwhile, the National Electoral Commission 
(NEC) was also finishing up with its much larger, 
but less politically sensitive project to register 
voters on the Tanzanian mainland.  Reports from 
Embassy FSNs registering to vote in Dar es Salaam 
varied widely. Several FSNs said that registration 
was quick and easy, and that they were required to 
show little, if any, documentation to demonstrate 
their eligibility.  One FSN reported waiting times 
lasting up to nine hours at a chaotic registration 
center in Dar es Salaam.  Most registration problems 
on the mainland apparently stemmed from problems 
with organization, in contrast to highly polarized 
Zanzibar, where everything is political.  The final 
phase of both registration exercises began April 27, 
when the NEC went to Zanzibar to register those 
Tanzanian voters ?- perhaps a few thousand in all -- 
who are eligible to vote in national elections, but 
who have not lived in the isles long enough to be 
eligible to register with the ZEC. 
 
The Diplomatic Group Plans no Meetings, for Now 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
4. (C) Heads of mission from the Diplomatic Group 
did not meet formally with political leaders on the 
margin of National Day events to discuss their 
support for the ZEC?s efforts to conduct voter 
registration. (See reftel A.)  The diplomats had 
originally planned to deliver their eleven point 
message to Home Affairs Minister Mapuri and to CCM 
Secretary General Phillip Mangula.  However, given 
 
SIPDIS 
the crowds of political leaders and diplomats 
converging on Dodoma April 26, and the press of 
internal CCM business, it was impractical to arrange 
additional meetings on the side. (The Swedish 
Ambassador managed to buttonhole Mangula for just 
long enough to urge him to revive the Secretaries 
General Committee.)  Nobody in the Diplomatic Group 
doubts that there will be other opportunities to 
discuss respect for legal electoral procedures with 
Tanzania?s political leaders. 
 
Violence Continues on Zanzibar 
------------------------------ 
 
5. (U) Sporadic violence persisted as the extended 
registration period came to a close.  The most 
recent incidents targeted the ruling CCM party.  The 
body of Chande Rashid Saleh, a local CCM agent who 
had monitored voter registration, was found on April 
24, apparently several days after his murder. 
Police suspected a political motive, but have made 
no arrests.  On April 25, an improvised explosive 
devise damaged the CCM?s Mpendae branch office, 
located in Urban West Region.  There were no 
injuries in the blast.  Police made three arrests, 
including a former member of the Tanzanian People?s 
Defense Forces. 
 
6. (C) These attacks have received relatively little 
press coverage.  While it is likely that they were 
politically motivated, nobody has blamed the 
opposition CUF, or anybody else, in print.  A CCM MP 
from Zanzibar, speaking privately to the Charge at 
Union Day events, also downplayed the Mpendae 
bombing.  This reaction contrasted with the outcry 
that followed the last outbreak of violence on 
Zanzibar, a year ago.  In March 2004, when a spate 
of small explosions targeted Zanzibar government 
officials, several CCM officials loudly accused the 
CUF party and a fundamentalist Muslim NGO, ?Uamsho.? 
In this most recent outbreak of political violence, 
the CCM newspaper ?Uhuru? cautiously hinted at a CUF 
motive; otherwise, the silence has been deafening. 
 
The CUF Party Announces its Nominees 
------------------------------------ 
 
7. (U) An extraordinary Congress of the opposition 
CUF party convened on April 25 and nominated the 
party?s Secretary General Seif Sharif Hamad as its 
candidate for President of Zanzibar, and Party 
Chairman Ibrahim Lipumba as its candidate for the 
President of the Union.  These nominations came as 
no surprise to anybody:  both party leaders ran for 
these offices in 1995, and again in 2000.  Some 
anonymous grumblers told the press that if Hamad and 
Lipumba failed to win office for a third time, they 
should stand aside and let younger leaders take over 
the CUF. 
 
The CCM Deliberates over its Nominee for Zanzibar . 
. 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
8. (C) The race for nominations in the ruling CCM 
party is much less predictable.  Incumbent Zanzibar 
President Amani Abeid Karume is facing a 
surprisingly strong challenge in the party from Dr. 
Mohamed Gharib Bilal.  Dr. Bilal, a US trained 
physicist and a political ally of former Zanzibar 
president Salmin Amour, is reportedly showing 
unexpected strength among some CCM stalwarts on 
Zanzibar.  A CCM Special Committee composed of some 
of the party?s most prominent Zanzibari leaders, 
including Salmin Amour, Vice President Shein, former 
President Mwinyi, and Presidential candidate Salim 
Salim convened April 27 to try to reach consensus on 
the Zanzibar Presidential nomination.  This eminent 
group was unable to make a decision; neither, 
according to several press reports, was it able to 
persuade Dr. Bilal to stand aside for the sake of 
CCM party unity.   The CCM?s National Executive 
Committee (the ?other NEC?) will take up the 
question when it convenes on May 3. 
 
. . .and over its Nominee for the Union Presidency 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
9. (C) These deliberations are just the warm-up for 
the marathon of negotiation and balloting among the 
top echelons of the CCM party, which will culminate 
on the afternoon of May 4.  At that time, the CCM 
Party Congress is scheduled to announce which of the 
eleven declared candidates will be the ruling 
party?s nominee for the Union Presidency.  CCM party 
luminaries have already gathered in Dodoma for the 
series of high level committee meetings to nominate 
the president.  First, the 36 member Central 
Committee will convene on May 2 to select five 
nominees; the 207 member National Executive 
Committee will then narrow the choice of nominees 
down to three.  Finally, the 1,800 members of the 
Party Congress, the party?s highest organ, will 
convene May 4 to make the final choice.  Given the 
overwhelming dominance of the CCM party on the 
mainland, there is little doubt that the candidate 
who receives at least 50 percent of the vote in the 
CCM Party Congress will become the next president of 
Tanzania. 
 
STILLMAN