US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1216

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001216 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, PTER, NP, India Relations 
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S KING HEADS TO INDIA AFTER COMPLETING FIRST 
YEAR ON THRONE 
 
REF: 01 KATHMANDU 1673 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski, Reasons 1.5 (b), (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  The first trip abroad as monarch by Nepal's 
King Gyanendra will be a visit to India June 23-30. 
Gyanendra laid the groundwork for the trip in his first-ever 
interview with the foreign press, granted to a leading Indian 
daily, when he played to India's conservative government by 
emphasizing the common cultural heritage shared by Nepal and 
India.  The King's visit comes on the heels of an Indian 
military delegation's assessment tour of Nepal and 
controversy surrounding Indian government allegations that 
Pakistani militants are operating from Nepali soil.  He will 
likely seek New Delhi's help combating the Maoist insurgency 
and support for Nepal's embattled democracy, while India will 
push for Kathmandu to crack down on rumored anti-Indian 
elements.  Gyanendra has become less unpopular over the past 
year, burnishing his image by appearing in a ceremonial role 
at religious events and making measured statements to the 
press in support of the constitution.  Given the 
extraordinary and traumatic circumstances accompanying the 
beginning of Gyanendra's reign -- the massacre of the late 
King and all other heirs to the throne -- he will have to 
continue to work hard to assert the legitmacy of his 
authority with the Nepali public.  End Summary. 
 
New King's First Trip Abroad 
---------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Nepal's King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah travels to New 
Delhi June 23 on his first trip abroad as monarch.  Laden 
with bilateral symbolism, Gyanendra's week-long visit 
reportedly will also include stops at the Kamakhya temple 
near Guwahati in the northeastern state of Assam and in 
Calcutta, where he will worship at the Kali Temple and meet 
with West Bengal's Chief Minister.  The head of Nepal's 
chambers of commerce federation will accompany the royals and 
hold separate meetings, including with the Commerce Minister. 
 According to a leading businessmen with extremely close ties 
to the palace, India's PM Vajpayee hosts a private dinner for 
the King upon his arrival in India, the evening before the 
official program begins.  Such hospitality is extraordinary, 
the businessman asserted, and signifies the importance the PM 
ascribed to the visit.  (Note:  The last visit of a Nepalese 
monarch to India was in January 1999, when King Birendra 
visited New Delhi and made a pilgrimage to see spiritual 
leader "Sai Baba" in South India.  Birendra was a frequent 
visitor to India, and both he and Gyanendra attended school 
there as boys.  End Note.) 
 
Special Relationship and Common Heritage 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) The businessman also portrayed the visit as a chance 
for the King to capitalize on his impressive speaking 
ability.  During a recent interview with the editor of The 
Times of India -- his first to a foreign journalist since 
becoming King -- Gyanendra already employed his rhetorical 
skills to set the tone for the upcoming visit in remarks 
gauged to appeal to India's conservative government.  For 
example, Gyanendra told The Times that "relations between 
Nepal and India are nurtured and enriched by noble ideals, 
values and principles inherent in a shared cultural 
heritage."  The two countries enjoy "traditional bonds as 
good neighbors," and Indo-Nepalese ties "remain special 
because they are practical, pragmatic and beneficial." 
 
India's Military on Assessment Tour 
----------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) These "pragmatic" relations will likely take the 
concrete form of additional Indian military assistance. 
Gyanendra's visit to India will come on the heels of an 
inspection by a four-officer Indian military assessment team 
now in Nepal.  Led by a Major General, the team is visiting 
Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) facilities at Dharan, Nepalgunj and 
Gorkha.  A military source confided to DATT that the team's 
visit is redundant, as India is well aware of Nepal's needs 
due to the well-developed and on-going relations between the 
two militaries.  The speculation is that India launched the 
team to re-assert India's primary role in providing security 
assistance to Nepal after a U.S. PACOM team spent 22 days in 
the Kingdom in April. 
 
Pakistani Militants Reported in Nepal 
------------------------------------- 
5. (U) The King's visit also comes in the wake of 
headline-grabbing statements by Indian Home Minister Advani 
charging that bases have been established in Nepal by two 
Pakistan-based militant groups:  Lashkar-e-Toiba and 
Jaish-e-Mohammed.  Nepal's Foreign Ministry denied reports 
that New Delhi provided Kathmandu with information about such 
bases, but added that Nepal would take appropriate action if 
such evidence came to light. 
 
All Uphill Year for the Monarchy 
-------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Gyanendra was crowned King on June 4, 2001 in the 
midst of rioting that followed the shooting deaths of King 
Birendra and eight other family members on June 1.  (Note: 
The King will come out of mourning for his late brother 
Birendra only on June 20, and for his late nephew and 
regicide Dipendra on June 22, auspicious dates marking the 
end of the lunar year of mourning.  Observers expect him to 
become an even more visible presence after those dates.  End 
Note.)  Widely unpopular at the time of his enthronement -- 
many suspected him of having a hand in the June 1 massacre -- 
the new King has gained the reluctant acceptance of the 
Nepalese public over the past year.  Carefully calculated 
appearances at religious ceremonies and measured public 
statements helped burnish his image.  Some observers add that 
the King's status has appreciated in part because he compares 
favorably with Nepal's fractious and ineffectual elected 
leaders. 
 
Playing the Religion Card 
-------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) According to Nepalese tradition, the King of Nepal 
is an incarnation of Vishnu, a major deity in the Hindu 
pantheon.  Gyanendra has played up that role in a string of 
public appearances at religious sites and ceremonies.  He has 
even appeared at religious occasions that his father, 
Mahendra, presided over, but that were neglected by his late 
brother Birendra over the past quarter century.  Establishing 
his role as a religious figure has helped him gain acceptance 
among Nepal's mostly Hindu population -- less than one-third 
of whom are literate. 
 
Voicing Support for Constitution 
-------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) In public statements and press interviews Gyanendra 
has tried to allay anxieties in some political circles that 
he nurtured aspirations of sweeping aside the democratic 
system, as his father did.  The King has voiced strong 
support for Nepal's constitutional system and called for 
higher standards of governance and an end to violence 
(Reftel).   An interview he gave to Nepal's official press 
service to mark the anniversary of his enthronement was "very 
well received," according to a local journalist.  In it the 
King said that "public disenchantment and distrust grows if 
the basic needs of the people are not fulfilled and state 
leaders show indifference to the people's aspirations." 
Asked what role he would play if a failure to hold 
Parliamentary elections provoked a crisis, he declined to 
answer, labeling the question "hypothetical." 
 
The Long, Prudent View 
---------------------- 
 
9. (C) Most observers agree that Nepal's royal palace may be 
the only political institution in Nepal focussed on the long 
view.  To date, the King has gone by the book, supporting the 
constitutional limits on the monarchy in both word and 
practice.  As a leading Nepali journalist put it, the King 
knows that if he is personally adventurous, it will be 
"doomsday" for his dynasty.  At present, Nepal's political 
parties are weak and fractious, but eventually they will be 
strong again -- and will remember everything the King did, 
the journalist concluded. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10. (C) Gyanendra's early visit to New Delhi is clearly 
calculated to signify acknowledgement of the importance of 
India in shaping Nepal's future.  Indian assistance will be 
key to defeating the Maoist insurgency and to stabilizing the 
democratic system in what will be a tenuous run-up to 
November elections.  We assume the King will seek to solidify 
GOI support for the campaign against the Maoist insurgents 
and will want to request Vajpayee's assistance in supporting 
Nepal's democracy during the current constitutional crisis. 
One way would be for India to continue to reign in recently 
unseated Nepali Congress Party (NCP) President and former 
Prime Minister G.P. Koirala, who maintains close links with 
Indian political leaders.  In return, New Delhi will likely 
press for more proactive Nepali action against anti-Indian 
militants reportedly operating out of Nepal. 
 
11. (C) Ironically, the King has been nurturing his image 
domestically at the same time that the public image of the 
NCP -- the party historically with the closest ties to India 
-- is at an all-time low.  In his interview with The Times 
the King struck a fine balance between emphasizing equality 
and sovereignty for the benefit of his domestic audience and 
giving a nod to the "special relationship" with India.  The 
emphasis on his religious role should also play well with 
India's Hindu nationalists.  As Nepal's political leaders 
fight amongst themselves in the lead-up to the elections 
called for November, Gyanendra will likely continue to act 
with an eye to posterity, playing on his roles as both 
constitutional monarch and living deity in an attempt to 
establish the legitimacy of his authority.  Given the unusual 
and distressing circumstances under which King Gyanendra 
acceded to the throne, the year-long mourning period may 
actually have worked in his favor as it gave the shocked and 
suspicious Nepali public time to accept the idea of him as 
monarch. 
MALINOWSKI