US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1968

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001968 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: LIEN IN BEIJING: CHEN TO OFFER LOW-KEY RESPONSE 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Chen administration plans a low-key 
reaction to KMT Chairman Lien Chan's Friday meeting with PRC 
President Hu Jintao in order to keep open options for a 
inter-party summit after Lien's return.  Officials are 
generally relieved that Lien received no substantive 
"deliverables" during his April 29 summit with Hu.  However, 
officials expressed disappointment over Lien's remarks at 
Beijing University, especially his criticism of Taiwan's 
democracy and reference to a KMT-Chinese Communist Party 
(CCP) united front against Taiwan independence.  Mainland 
Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu told reporters he 
was "surprised" and "disappointed" at Lien's decision to 
deliver a speech in Communist China critical of Taiwan's 
democratic achievements.  Similar sentiments were expressed 
by Pan-Blue officials and media outlets.  Several editorials 
warned that Lien's domestic political commentary could 
undermine the otherwise positive messages coming out of his 
visit.  While Taiwan's National Security Council (NSC) has 
advised President Chen to avoid direct commentary, other 
senior officials plan to seek opportunities to portray Lien's 
April 29 speech and "five point" consensus in negative terms 
in order to influence the public and media environment in the 
immediate aftermath of the Lien visit.  End Summary. 
 
Chen to Offer Moderate Response 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian did not offer an immediate 
public reaction to KMT Chairman Lien Chan's April 29 "five 
point" consensus with PRC President Hu Jintao.  NSC Deputy 
Secretary General Henry Ko told AIT shortly before the 
 
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Lien-Hu meeting that Chen agreed with the NSC's assessment 
that Beijing would like nothing more than for Lien's Beijing 
meeting to provoke another round of internal tensions.  Ko 
said that the President also indicated that, no matter what 
Lien agrees to in Beijing, it is in the government's interest 
to keep the door open to a Chen-Lien summit after Lien's 
return from the Mainland. 
 
3. (C) NSC Senior Advisor for cross-Strait relations Chen 
Chung-hsin provided AIT a readout of the April 29 evening NSC 
meeting convened to establish a formal response to the 
Lien-Hu "five points."  Chen said that the general consensus 
was that the PRC succeeded in giving Lien "face" without 
giving him anything of substance.  He noted that four of the 
five points agreed upon began with the term "promote," with 
the only "deliverable" an agreement to establish a 
party-to-party communications mechanism.  According to Chen, 
MAC Chair Wu argued that the "five points" amounted to a 
clear violation of Taiwan's Cross-Strait Relations Statute. 
However, Chen was joined by Presidential Office Deputy 
Secretary General Ma Yung-chen in overturning Wu's suggestion 
 
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of referring Lien to legal authorities.  Instead, Wu was 
instructed to simply offer a public criticism of Lien for 
failing to convey the Taiwan people's support for the "ROC," 
opposition to the Anti-Secession Law, and wish for Mainland 
China to develop its own democratic institutions. 
 
CCP-KMT United Front Against Taiwan Independence 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
4. (C) The NSC's Chen said the government also decided to 
have the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) take the "bad 
cop" role in responding to Lien's Beijing University speech. 
Earlier in the day, MAC Chair Wu expressed "shock" and 
"disappointment" over Lien's criticism of Taiwan's democratic 
institutions during his address.  DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang 
told reporters that Lien's endorsement of a KMT-CCP "united 
front" against Taiwan independence amounted to a rejection of 
the island's pluralistic democracy.  The party's spokesman 
criticized Lien for "confusing the enemy country with his 
mother country."  Premier Frank Hsieh told reporters that he 
is not overly concerned about Lien's meeting.  However, Hsieh 
said it would have been better if Lien had not criticized 
Taiwan during his public remarks on the Mainland. 
 
5. (SBU) Taiwan media and political commentary also focused 
on Lien's remark about a "united front with the CCP to block 
Taiwan independence."  The normally pro-Blue United Evening 
News criticized Lien's anti-independence statements in an 
April 29 editorial, warning that his language would not only 
increase internal tensions in Taiwan but also embarrass KMT 
moderates like Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou and Legislative 
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng.  The centrist China Times also 
editorialized that Lien's public criticism of Taiwan's 
democracy and President Chen threatened to obscure the more 
positive messages that emerged out of Lien's visit. 
 
Pan-Blue Offers Low-Key Response 
-------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) There was little public commentary from senior KMT 
officials in Taipei, although Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou did 
praise Lien's visit as a chance to advance cross-Strait 
understanding.  Chou Chih-wei, an official at the KMT's 
National Policy Foundation, told AIT that Lien's trip in 
itself is good for cross-Strait stability, and has the 
potential to usher in a new period of "China Fever" with 
opportunities for further exchanges.  However, Chou expressed 
disappointment that Lien chose to use his Beijing University 
speech to criticize the DPP.  Chou said that for Lien's trip 
to have any significance beyond mere symbolic reconciliation 
between the KMT and CCP, something concrete must come from 
it.  This, he acknowledged, means cooperating with the DPP 
government on follow-on actions.  Chou added that if the 
current KMT leadership mishandles the follow-up to the 
Beijing meetings, the visit could backfire for the party 
politically. 
 
7. (C) The Beijing University speech and outcome of the 
Lien-Hu talks have boosted expectations among DPP and People 
First Party (PFP) officials for the early May visit of PFP 
Chairman James Soong.  The NSC's Chen told AIT that the PRC's 
decision to go light on substance with Lien might indicate a 
preference for dealing with Soong, and by indirect extension, 
President Chen.  PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang offered a 
similar assessment.  Chang asserted that Beijing would not 
"waste" substantive offers on Lien, since they know the KMT 
Chairman would not convey any offer to the DPP government. 
In contrast, Chang said that the PFP has already discussed 
with PRC counterparts specific policy initiatives, such as 
ways to finesse the "1992 consensus," that would open the 
door to a real government-to-government dialogue (Septel). 
 
Comment: Symbolism, but Little Substance 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The atmospherics for Lien's visit were decidedly 
positive, but Lien's inability to secure anything more than 
vague commitments for further consultations is likely to 
limit the bounce the KMT will get out of the visit.  Other 
than his public agreement to the "1992 consensus" as a basis 
for future party-to-party talks, there was little in the 
Lien-Hu "five points" that President Chen has not talked 
about himself in public speeches.  However, Lien's decision 
to criticize his domestic opponents is already tarnishing the 
otherwise constructive message in his Beijing University 
speech.  With virtually all of Lien's aides (and both of his 
spokespersons) still at his side in Beijing, the DPP is 
likely to have the edge in shaping the weekend media message. 
 The hard part will be to do so in a way that does not 
undermine the possibility for resuming contacts with the KMT 
after Lien returns on May 3. 
PAAL