US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI3250

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 003250 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR GREEN/DORMANDY 
LONDON FOR POL-BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, MASS, KDEM, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER SHOOTS DOWN ARMS FOR NEPAL 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 3164 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 3086 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (U) Reaffirming India's position that the GOI wants to 
see meaningful steps toward restoration of democracy before 
resuming military assistance to Nepal (Ref B), Foreign 
Minister Natwar Singh told the upper house of Parliament on 
April 28 that following the arrest the day before of former 
PM Deuba, military aid "will remain under review." 
Describing King Gyanendra's April 23 "assurances" to him and 
PM Manmohan Singh publicly for the first time, the Foreign 
Minister reported that the monarch had promised that he would 
"unwind" the state of emergency and press restrictions 
(including the ban on Indian TV channels) and release the 
remaining political prisoners, and alluded to but did not 
spell out that the King expected Indian arms supplies to 
resume as a result.  Additionally, Natwar stated, the Prime 
Minister and Foreign Minister had stressed for the King the 
need to "restart the political process, meet all the 
political party leaders, and from there ensure that elections 
are held and Parliament is recalled and the Government is 
formed." 
 
2.  (C) Calling Deuba's arrest "a matter of very deep 
regret," Natwar told the Parliament that "for the last three 
months the situation deteriorated rapidly."  However, India's 
"unique relationship" poses a "difficulty" in formulating 
policy.  While reiterating the GOI's desire to assist in an 
"amicable and friendly manner," the Foreign Minister bluntly 
warned that "India had all the leverages; we have not used 
any of them."  While New Delhi press continue to report 
pressure from the Indian armed forces to resume the arms 
supply to Nepal, MEA Undersecretary (Nepal) Manu Mahawar told 
Poloff on April 29 that the King's actions had "set his cause 
back" within the GOI. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
3.  (C) The arrest this week of the Nepalese oppositionist 
has significantly soured GOI attitudes toward the King, 
dampening optimistic scenarios arising out of the April 22-23 
meetings in Jakarta which suggested a democracy-for-military 
assistance swap as a way out of the current impasse.  The 
King's latest actions will make it more difficult for the GOI 
to accept future positive steps by the palace as sufficient 
progress to justify a resumption of arms supplies (something 
its leftist governing partners already strongly oppose). 
Press accounts of pressure from the military for a quick 
resumption of assistance support our earlier reporting (Ref 
A) of disagreement between the MoD and the MEA on arms supply. 
BLAKE