US embassy cable - 05ROME1442

UNCLAS  ROME 001442 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, IT, ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
SUBJECT:  ITALY:  BERLUSCONI ANNOUNCES MAY 2006 ELECTIONS, 
ELECTION TIMETABLES AND PARAMETERS 
 
REF:  ROME 1409 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  PM Berlusconi told journalists April 26 that Italy's 
next national elections would be held in May 2006. 
Berlusconi said he had already discussed the date with 
President Ciampi.  In fact, if the current Parliament 
completes its full term, Italy in 2006 will face an 
unprecedented situation, with the terms of the President, 
Parliament, and Government all expiring within weeks.  We 
foresee that President Ciampi will be extended in office, 
with his successor chosen by the new Parliament after 
elections.  Parliament will be dissolved, in March to permit 
May elections.  After the elections, the Government will 
resign, regardless of which side wins, to be replaced by 
ministers of the winning coalition.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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ELECTORAL LAW 
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2.  In national elections, about 50 million Italian electors 
are eligible to vote for a new Parliament.  That Parliament 
selects a new President of the Republic, upon expiration of 
the sitting president's seven-year term.  Timetables are 
established for national and presidential elections, but 
there are no precedents for the current situation, when the 
President of the Republic, Parliament, and by extension the 
Government, all reach the end of their terms around the same 
time. 
 
3.  By tradition, strengthened by provisions of the 1994 
electoral reform law, the sitting government's mandate ends 
and a new government is formed when the new Parliament takes 
office.  Under the 1994 electoral law, coalitions indicate 
their candidate for prime minister on the ballot, making the 
vote a clearer indication of voter preference for the post. 
In fact, though, an individual votes for a coalition and for 
the candidate representing his/her parliamentary district. 
Italians do not vote directly for the prime minister. 
Before the 1994 reform, the prime minister was not 
specified, and the President of the Republic could nominate 
a prime minister essentially of his choosing, after 
consulting with the Presidents of the Chamber and Senate and 
other political leaders.  The role of the voters was close 
to nonexistent. 
 
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CIAMPI'S TERM AND PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION 
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4.  President Ciampi's mandate expires May 18, 2006.  Unless 
he resigns well ahead of that date, the new president will 
be elected by Italy's next parliament within 35 days of 
national elections.  President Ciampi has already indicated 
he will not resign before the end of his mandate, so we can 
predict he will be extended in office. 
 
5.  Thirty days before the mandate of the President of the 
Republic expires, the President of the Chamber of Deputies 
must summon all parliamentarians (both Chamber and Senate) 
and 58 regional delegates in joint session to vote for 
Italy's next president.  (Nineteen of Italy's 20 regional 
councils, roughly equivalent to our state legislatures, 
select three members each to represent them.  The small 
region of Valle D'Aosta gets a single representative.)  This 
does not apply, however, if Parliament is already dismissed 
or if there are less than three months before its full term 
ends.  In those cases, the President of the Republic is 
elected by the new Parliament within 15 days of its first 
meeting.  (Parliament must meet within 20 days from the date 
of national elections.)  In the meantime, powers of the 
departing president are extended. 
 
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PARLIAMENT'S TERM 
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6.  The current parliamentary term expires May 30, 2006. 
The President of the Republic formally declares Parliament 
expired (as opposed to being dissolved early) and calls for 
new elections.  Elections must be held not less than forty- 
five days (the legally mandated minimum electoral campaign 
period) and not more than seventy days (as dictated by 
Italy's Constitution) from the date the parliamentary term 
expires. 
 
7.  This means Italy's next national parliamentary elections 
would be held between July 14 and August 8, 2006.  However, 
elections in Italy are usually held not later than June, 
before school summer closure, to maximize voter turnout. 
This suggests an early dismissal of Parliament.  The 
 
 
President of the Republic cannot dismiss Parliament during 
the last six months of his mandate unless it also coincides 
with the last six months of the legislative term, as in this 
case.  To fulfill Berlusconi's indicated mid-May election 
plan, the current Parliament would have to be dissolved in 
mid-to-late March 2006. 
 
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AND THE GOVERNMENT'S TERM 
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8.  Parliament is elected to a five-year term, but the 
Government is technically an entity without a set term.  To 
become effective, a newly appointed government must receive 
a vote of confidence from both chambers of Parliament.  Once 
confirmed, the government remains in office until Parliament 
revokes its confidence or the government resigns.  However, 
governments have traditionally resigned after a new 
President of the Republic is elected and after national 
elections.  Thus, the current Berlusconi III Government can 
be expected to resign after national and presidential 
elections -- even if the center-right were to win with 
Berlusconi as its standard bearer. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  Italy's next Parliament will have to select a new 
President of the Republic and form a new government before 
summer recess in August.  If elections occur in May, June 
and July 2006 look to be busy months for Italian 
politicians. 
SEMBLER 
 
 
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	2005ROME01442 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED