US embassy cable - 02HANOI1571

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT: CPV STILL DECIDING ON GVN LEADERSHIP SLOTS? 
 
REF:  A.  HANOI 1432     B. HANOI 1485 
 
1.  (U) CLASSIFIED BY POL/C SCOTT BELLARD, REASON: 1.5 
(D) 
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2.  (C)  SUMMARY.  AN EXPECTED CPV PLENUM IN JULY 
SHOULD MAKE FINAL DECISIONS ON THE NEW GVN LEADERSHIP 
LINE-UP, AND MAY ALSO BLESS PUNISHMENTS AGAINST SEVERAL 
SENIOR OFFICIALS BELIEVED TO BE GUILTY OF CORRUPTION OR 
OTHER WRONG-DOING.  THESE BEHIND-THE-SCENES 
DELIBERATIONS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO VERIFY, AND WE EXPECT 
VARIOUS RUMORS WILL CONTINUE TO EMERGE UNTIL THE 
DETAILS HAVE BEEN PINNED DOWN IN PRIVATE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3. (C)  ACCORDING TO LE THO BINH, CHIEF OF THE 
EDITORIAL BOARD OF "COUNTRYSIDE TODAY," THE SIXTH 
PLENUM OF THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS OF THE COMMUNIST 
PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) HAS BEEN DELAYED SEVERAL TIMES 
DUE TO ONGOING INTERNAL DEBATES ABOUT THE NEW GVN 
LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE THAT WILL BE VOTED UPON BY THE 
11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) IN JULY (REF A).  THE NA 
MUST BY LAW MEET BY JULY 19 -- WITHIN TWO MONTHS FROM 
THE MAY ELECTIONS -- AND SEVERAL NA SOURCES HAVE 
SEPARATELY PREDICTED THE OPENING DATE WILL BE JULY 14. 
 
4.  (C)  BINH, PREVIOUSLY A HARD-CHARGING INVESTIGATIVE 
REPORTER WITH TUOI TRE NEWSPAPER, TOLD POLOFF ON JUNE 
18 THAT THE PLENUM HAD INITIALLY BEEN PROPOSED FOR JUNE 
15 OR 17, BUT WILL NOW MORE PROBABLY BEGIN O/A JULY 5. 
BINH'S CPV SOURCES HAVE CLAIMED THAT THE NINE OUT OF 
THE FIFTEEN POLIBURO MEMBERS HAVE AGREED THAT PRIME 
MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI SHOULD REMAIN IN OFFICE FOR NOW, 
A RUMOR THAT IS ALSO WIDELY CIRCULATING ELSEWHERE. 
PRESIDENT TRAN DUC LUONG, DANANG PARTY CHIEF PHAN DIEN, 
MASS MOBILIZATION CHIEF TRUONG QUANG DUOC, AND ECONOMIC 
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COMMISSION CHIEF TRUONG TAN SANG REPORTEDLY HAD 
NONETHELESS EXPRESSED THEIR SUPPORT WITHIN THE 
POLITBURO FOR DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG TO 
MOVE INTO THE TOP SPOT THIS SUMMER. 
 
5.  (C)  MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN IS STILL SEEN BY 
BINH'S CONTACTS (AND OTHERS) TO BE THE HANDS-ON 
FAVORITE TO MOVE UP TO A DPM POSITION, MOST PROBABLY 
THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS/TRADE SLOT NOW FILLED BY DPM NGUYEN 
MANH CAM.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION THAT THE 
NUMBER OF DPM SLOTS COULD DECLINE FROM FOUR TO THREE 
WITH THE EXPECTED RETIREMENTS OF DPM CAM AND DPM NGUYEN 
CONG TAN.  FORMER MINISTER OF TRADE AND CURRENT NGHE AN 
PROVINCIAL PARTY BOSS TRUONG DINH TUYEN IS RUMORED TO 
BE A FAVORITE TO REPLACE VU KHOAN AT MOT, DESPITE 
WISHES OF SOME SENIOR MOT OFFICIALS FOR AN IN-HOUSE 
CANDIDATE AND SOME DISSATISFACTION WITH TUYEN'S EARLIER 
PERFORMANCE AT MOT (INCLUDING OVER BILATERAL TRADE 
AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS). 
 
6.  (C)  THE WIDELY-RUMORED RETIREMENT OF MINISTER OF 
PUBLIC SECURITY LT. GENERAL LE MINH HUONG IS REPORTEDLY 
RUNNING INTO DIFFICULTIES IN LIGHT OF ALLEGATIONS 
AGAINST CURRENT VICE MINISTERS (PARA 8).  SOME OF 
BINH'S CONTACTS HAVE SPECULATED THAT EXTENSION OF MPS' 
HUONG MIGHT "FOR BALANCE" NECESSITATE A SIMILAR 
EXTENSION OF MINISTER OF DEFENSE LT. GENERAL PHAM VAN 
TRA, WHO WAS RE-ELECTED TO THE NA IN MAY.  (MOD 
OFFICIALS HAVE SEPARATELY INDICATED THAT GENERAL TRA 
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE THIS FALL TO ACCEPT THE 
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE'S RECIPROCAL INVITATION TO VISIT.) 
 
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OTHER SOURCES HAVE INDICATED THAT MINISTER OF JUSTICE 
LOC IS A SURE BET TO STEP DOWN; MOJ CONTACTS HAVE TOLD 
POLOFFS PRIVATELY THAT VICE MINISTER UONG CHU LUU 
(ALREADY A CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER AND NA DELEGATE) 
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REPLACE LOC, WHICH WILL PROBABLY 
MAKE LUU THE YOUNGEST MINISTER.  AT THE MINISTRY OF 
PLANNING AND INVESTMENT, MINISTER TRAN XUAN GIA IS 
WIDELY EXPECTED TO STEP DOWN IN FAVOR OF VICE MINISTER 
VO HONG PHUC. 
 
7.  (C)  ACCORDING TO BINH'S SOURCES, THE CPV'S 
INVESTIGATION COMMISSION WILL ALSO REPORT TO THE PLENUM 
ON A NUMBER OF HIGH-RANKING CPV MEMBERS AND GVN 
OFFICIALS WHO SHOULD FACE CENSURE AND/OR PUNISHMENT; 
15 OF THEM ARE REPORTEDLY NEW NA MEMBERS.  AMONG THE 
EXPECTED VICTIMS ARE FORMER "VOICE OF VIETNAM" DIRECTOR 
GENERAL TRAN MAI HANH AND MPS VICE MINISTER BUI QUOC 
HUY, BOTH OF WHOM HAVE BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE ONGOING 
INVESTIGATION OF HO CHI MINH CITY "MAFIA" KING "NAM 
CAM" (REF B). 
 
8.  (U)  "TUOI TRE" REPORTED ON JUNE 19 THAT THE 
POLITBURO AND SECRETARIAT HAD DECIDED TO EXAMINE MORE 
CLOSELY THE ACTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING CPV ORGANS AND 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3434 
 
PAGE 01        HANOI  01571  02 OF 02  191009Z 
ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  ECA-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------BF5868  191011Z /38 
R 191008Z JUN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6801 
INFO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH 
AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE 
SECDEF WASHDC 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 001571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
INDIVIDUALS IN CONNECTION WITH THE NAM CAM CASE: 
--  CENTRAL PUBLIC SECURITY PARTY COMMITTEE 
--  SUPREME PEOPLE'S PROCURACY PARTY COMMITTEE 
--  STANDING COMMITTEE OF THE HCMC PARTY COMMITTEE 
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PAGE 02        HANOI  01571  02 OF 02  191009Z 
--  LT. GEN. BUI BUI QUOC HUY, MPS VICE MINISTER, 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER, AND FORMER HCMC POLICE CHIEF 
--  MAJOR GENERAL HOANG NGOC NHAT, MPS VICE MINISTER 
--  MAJOR GENERAL DO NAM, MPS DIRECTOR FOR PRISONS 
--  PHAM SY CHIEN, FORMER CHIEF PROCURATOR, SUPREME 
PEOPLE'S PROCURACY 
--  TRAN MAI HAN, FORMER DIRECTOR GENERAL OF VOICE OF 
VIETNAM 
--  LE THANH DAO, FORMER CHIEF PROCURATOR, SUPREME 
PEOPLE'S PROCURACY 
 
9.  (C)  COMMENT:  MUCH IS AT STAKE IN THE LEADERSHIP 
SWEEPSTAKES, NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF PERSONAL FIEFDOMS BUT 
ALSO IN CONVINCING THE PUBLIC THAT THE CPV AND GVN TAKE 
SERIOUSLY THESE ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION AND 
MISCONDUCT AND ARE PREPARED TO MOVE AGAINST EVEN SENIOR 
RANKING OFFICIALS.  THE EXTENSIVE MEDIA COVERAGE GIVEN 
TO THE NAM CAM CASE CANNOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE 
PROMOTION ASPIRATIONS OF HCMC PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH 
TRIET, ANOTHER FRONT-RUNNER AS EVENTUAL SUCCESSOR TO PM 
KHAI.  THE MEDIA CAMPAIGN MAY INDEED BE AN INDIRECT 
POLITICAL ATTACK ON TRIET HIMSELF.   WE EXPECT THE 
RUMOR MILL TO CONTINUE TO FLOURISH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 
PARTY PLENUM AND NA OPENING SESSION.  AT THE SAME TIME, 
WE PREDICT A PUBLIC SHOW OF UNITY WITHIN THE CPV AND NA 
ONCE THESE PERSONNEL AND PUNISHMENT DECISIONS ALIKE 
HAVE BEEN MADE IN PRIVATE. 
PORTER 
 
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