US embassy cable - 05DHAKA1976

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001976 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, EAID, BG 
SUBJECT: THE SHAKY SEISMIC OUTLOOK FOR BANGLADESH 
 
REF: DHAKA 1731 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Experts forecast a devastating earthquake 
in Bangladesh in the next ten years.  Bangladesh is woefully 
ill prepared, but the BDG, backed by some academics, is 
slowly starting to address the associated challenges.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) Bangladeshi and foreign experts estimate that the 
Himalayan Arc tectonic plate line will experience at least 
seven major earthquakes, of a magnitude greater than 8.0 on 
the Richter Scale, at different times and in different 
locations along its length within the next ten years.  The 
intensity of any earthquake near Bangladesh is increased by 
its relatively loose soil, which amplifies vibrations.  When 
vibrations are heavy enough, soil can liquefy and cause 
buildings to sink or collapse.  Soil liquefaction is being 
blamed for the April 11 Savar factory collapse (reftel) which 
officially claimed 61 lives.  Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet 
are at serious risk for soil liquefaction, with Chittagong 
and Sylhet already experiencing regular landslides.  Dhaka 
has at least three smaller fault lines in addition to the 
Himalayan Arc. 
 
3. (SBU) Dhaka is particularly vulnerable due to its high 
concentration of old, poorly maintained buildings and new, 
shoddily constructed buildings, all of which sit 
cheek-by-jowl in a haphazardly growing city of 13 million 
inhabitants.  Proximity to each other makes these buildings 
more susceptible to vibrations originating elsewhere.  The 
Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MDMR) estimates 
that 40% of Dhaka's buildings would collapse in a 6.0 Richter 
Scale earthquake, and a large percentage of the remaining 
buildings would be damaged, as would other key 
infrastructure.  In 2004, an old multi-story apartment 
building in Old Dhaka partially collapsed due to vibrations 
from a nearby construction site.  Emergency crews were unable 
to reach the building or its inhabitants because the street, 
as is common in Old Dhaka, was too narrow to accommodate 
emergency equipment.  Many if not most buildings and urban 
areas lack central shut-offs for gas and power supplies, so 
fire is another major concern.  The hydro-electric Kaptai 
dam, Bangladesh's only dam, was built in the late 1950's and 
is reportedly unable to withstand a major earthquake; if 
ruptured, flooding would likely kill thousands.  Studies by 
the prestigious Bangladesh University of Engineering and 
Technology (BUET) suggest that an 8.0 Intensity Scale 
(different from the Richter Scale) earthquake could cost 
Dhaka upwards of $600 million in damages and lost growth, a 
huge sum for Bangladesh.  Recovery periods would be months, 
probably years, given the country's already woeful 
infrastructure. 
 
4. (SBU) Dhaka did not have a building code until 1993. 
Enforcement in the planning and especially the construction 
phases is lax and often manipulated by corruption. BUET 
seismologist Dr. Mehedi Ansary, who is part of a BDG 
committee updating the code, told us that the code now falls 
short of minimal earthquake standards.  The city agency 
responsible for enforcing Dhaka's building code is Rajuk (a 
Bangla acronym for "Capital Development Authority").  It is 
notoriously corrupt, under-trained, and under-staffed, 
according to businesspersons and other sources.  Sixty 
inspectors and supervisors are responsible for inspecting 
300,000 buildings.  One consequence of this ratio is that 
inspectors normally inspect only design plans.  If they do 
inspect a structure, it is generally only to ensure that 
property lines are intact.  Ansary estimates that Rajuk needs 
at least 300 inspectors with 50, fully-trained, supervisory 
engineers to do the job right. 
 
5. (SBU) To that end, BUET is now training each year 35 
engineers in structural evaluation for seismic safety.  Last 
year's short course drew 50% of its participants from 
government, including Rajuk and the Public Works Department 
(PWD), which has the equivalent of Rajuk's mandate for 
government structures.  The PWD is already better trained and 
equipped than Rajuk, and sent more senior engineers to the 
training.  Ansary reports that some NGOs with an 
architectural focus have begun looking for ways to assist in 
retrofitting old buildings in two vulnerable areas of Old 
Dhaka.  CARE-Bangladesh is also working to raise awareness 
about earthquakes nationwide. 
 
6 (SBU) After the 2001 earthquake in India, the Asian tsunami 
that barely missed Bangladesh in December, and the Savar 
factory collapse, there are indications that the BDG is 
focusing more attention on seismic matters.  On April 18, 
Prime Minister Khaleda Zia declared in a speech that 
Bangladesh needs more search and rescue equipment and more 
earthquake resistant buildings.  The last issue of the 
BDG-published "Standing Orders on Disaster" does not contain 
any reference to seismic or industrial disasters.  Instead it 
is oriented to the yearly floods and storms.  However, a new 
section is being drafted on seismic issues for the next 
Standing Order, due out in six months.  According to the 
MDMR, one week after the tsunami, an inter-ministerial 
disaster management coordinating committee was convened and 
it was agreed that Bangladesh is totally unprepared for an 
earthquake.  Training modules are now reportedly being 
developed to educate the populace on how to respond in an 
earthquake.  Educational programs on BDG TV are planned for 
this month, and Public Service Announcements are in 
development. 
 
7. (SBU) At the Savar factory collapse, Dhaka's emergency 
response services demonstrated they were ill-prepared for 
even a single building collapse.  They lacked even low-tech 
items like headlamps, hand-held hydraulic clippers, gloves, 
and bodybags.  The EMT response is also poor.  As fire 
fighters and Army personnel are generally untrained in first 
aid, local Boy Scout troop leaders stepped in to provide 
emergency care to survivors until they could be moved to 
hospitals.  But the BDG is trying to build capability. 
Dhaka's 12 fire stations recently used their own funds to 
purchase $3.2 million worth of disaster response equipment. 
At Savar, 48 Dhaka-based fire fighters who had recently 
participated in USAID-sponsored building collapse response 
training used the training-grade equipment and their newly 
acquired knowledge.  The Army and the fire department are the 
primary responders to disasters.  The Army, experienced in 
rolling out effective flood relief packages, has shown it can 
organize and provide relief for large numbers, but, even 
though it assumed command at the Savar site, it lacks 
specific seismic-related skills and equipment.  A recent 
draft of a Seismic Response Plan being developed by the Dhaka 
city government divides the area into eight zones and 
dictates responsibility within each zone to either the Army, 
the fire department, the police, or the paramilitary 
Bangladesh Rifles.  Ansary also wants to open communication 
lines with Indian engineers and first responders to see how 
they coped with massive earthquake recovery operations. 
CHAMMAS