US embassy cable - 05MADRID1628

C O N F I D E N T I A L MADRID 001628 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, SP, Popular Party, PSOE - Socialist Party 
SUBJECT: POPULAR PARTY: TROUBLE IN THE HEARTLAND 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Ricardo Zuniga; reason 1.4 (D) 
 
1. (U) The opposition Popular Party (PP) is working hard to 
avoid losing its controlling majority in Galicia, 
historically a bedrock region for the center-right PP and 
home to both PP founder Manuel Fraga (now leader of the 
Galcian Regional government) and current PP leader Mariano 
Rajoy.  The PP holds 41 seats in the 75-member assembly while 
the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the Galician Nationalist Bloc 
(BNG) each hold 17 seats.  While the PP is likely to win the 
largest number of votes in Galicia, polls indicate that for 
the first time in four election cycles the PSOE and BNG are 
poised to win more seats between them than the PP, enabling 
them to form a PSOE-BNG coalition government and push the PP 
into the opposition.  On April 22, Manuel Fraga succumbed to 
weeks of pressure from other PP leaders and agreed to hold 
regional elections June 19 rather than in October, giving the 
PP a slim chance to hold on to its majority. 
 
2. (U) A loss in Galicia would further demoralize a PP stung 
by losses in the March 14, 2004 national elections and a 
substantial loss of seats in Basque Region elections on April 
17.  Support for the PP in Galicia has been sliding for the 
last two years, beginning with criticism of former President 
Aznar's handling of the "Presige" oil spill disaster that 
damaged the local fishing industry and accelerating after the 
PP's loss to the PSOE in the March 2004 national elections. 
Infighting in the Galicia PP and Fraga's worsening health (he 
is 82) have further clouded the picture for the PP in a 
region that until this year was an unquestioned bastion of 
center-right power.  The fact that the nationalist BNG may 
also lose seats to the Galician PSOE and would be the junior 
partner in any coalition would only amplify the apparent 
ascendancy of the PSOE at the national level. 
 
3. (C) PP Parliamentary staffers confirmed the party's 
difficulties in Galicia in a meeting with Embassy officers. 
Economic adviser Miguel Marin noted that a loss in Galicia 
would represent a particularly painful blow to a PP that is 
already on the defensive.  However, Marin said he did not 
believe that a loss in Galicia would lead the PP to change 
its leadership or its strategy as Spain's main opposition 
party.  Marin, who was an adviser to Aznar's presidential 
team, said that the PP had misread the Spanish electorate 
during the 2004 elections and had yet to settle on a 
successful plan for recapturing the political center. 
Percival Manglano, chief foreign policy adviser to the PP 
Parliamentary group, was less inclined to advocate a shift in 
the PP's current strategy of emphasizing its core principles 
and aggressively attacking PSOE initiatives, but acknowledged 
the PP's lack of success in countering Socialist advances 
throughout Spain. 
 
//NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS// 
 
4. (C) A loss in Galicia would prove a major embarrassment to 
PP leader Rajoy, both because it is his own district and 
because he would be seen as presiding over three major 
electoral losses in a row.  Conversely, the PSOE would view a 
win in Galicia as a strong argument for calling early 
national elections in 2006 or 2007, when an absolute majority 
would be within the Socialist's grasp.  Zapatero's personal 
popularity, and perhaps more importantly lingering voter 
antipathy towards Aznar, are clearly potent weapons in the 
PSOE arsenal and they are having an important effect in 
Galicia.  A loss in Galicia would make clear that the current 
PP leadership has not found a way to distance itself 
sufficiently from the failures of 2004 or to otherwise seize 
the initiative back from the PSOE. 
MANZANARES