US embassy cable - 02HARARE1448

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001448 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ASEC, ZI, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT, RUNNING SCARED, RENEWS 
CRACKDOWN ON MDC 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Todd Faulk for reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: In the last week, the Government of Zimbabwe 
(GOZ) has renewed its crackdown on the opposition Movement 
for Democratic Change (MDC), which is still considering some 
sort of mass action to force the GOZ to rerun the flawed 
March presidential election.  Police have arrested hundreds 
of MDC supporters and activists in Manicaland following an 
attempted MDC rally in Mutare, and police beat up and 
arrested more than 80 MDC members attempting to hold a public 
meeting in Harare on June 16.  The Harare detainees, 
including an MDC Member of Parliament, have spent a second 
night in jail and police denied medical attention to six who 
were seriously injured in the beatings.  Police also set up 
large-scale roadblocks around the capital on June 17 in an 
attempt to deter further political gatherings.  The GOZ is 
running scared, knowing that it is bankrupt of new ideas to 
stop the country's precipitous economic slide, and the 
citizenry is increasingly hungry and impatient. 
Consequently, the GOZ is increasingly reliant on repression 
and the security forces to prevent popular protest from 
taking hold.  End summary. 
 
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Crackdown in Manicaland 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Over the last several weeks, the opposition MDC has 
been exploring ways to mobilize some sort of mass action 
against the GOZ, whether it be a limited stay-away or 
large-scale demonstrations.  Even though the MDC National 
Executive decided June 9 that it was not yet ready to 
undertake a nationwide mass action, MDC President Morgan 
Tsvangirai may nonetheless be testing the waters for a mass 
 
SIPDIS 
action by gauging the reaction of the GOZ and the public.  On 
June 12, riot police and ax-wielding ZANU-PF youth occupied 
the venue for an MDC rally in Mutare South that Tsvangirai 
was due to address, and prevented any gathering from taking 
place, according to the June 13 edition of the independent 
"Daily News."  Learnmore Jongwe, MDC Secretary for Public 
Information and a National Executive member, told poloff June 
18 that 100 MDC members were arrested in Chibunji, in 
southern Manicaland, after MDC supporters allegedly burned 
down a bottle store on June 10 belonging to Bernard Makuwe. 
Makuwe, the ZANU-PF chairman for Buhera, was named as a 
defendant in the petrol-bomb murder of Tsvangirai's driver 
and another MDC member in April 2000, but has so far refused 
without consequences to appear in court.  Jongwe also told 
poloff that the last 138 of the 170 MDC supporters who were 
beaten up and arrested on June 12 in the town of Birchenough 
Bridge, were released on bail.  They were arrested after 
holding a public meeting in the town.  These actions followed 
a police raid on MDC headquarters in Mutare and the Mutare 
offices of two prominent MDC MPs on May 31.  The police, 
claiming to be looking for plans or weapons to "oust the 
government or force a rerun of the presidential election," 
went away with nothing. 
 
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Crackdown Extends to Harare 
--------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) On June 16, about 85 MDC members and supporters 
attempted to meet in Harare Gardens, the extensive park 
across the street from the U.S. Embassy.  The police quickly 
got wind of their activities, and descended on the gathering. 
 They told the leaders that the park was not suitable for 
such a meeting, ordered them to disperse, and attacked those 
gathered with truncheons.  According to Jongwe, they 
attempted to regroup at the MDC's Harare provincial 
headquarters downtown, but were thwarted there as well. 
Police continued to beat people, including MDC MP for 
Highfield Munyaradzi Gwisai and a "Daily News" reporter, and 
a total of about 80 were taken into custody.  Jongwe reported 
that when Gwisai's attorney saw him in jail, Gwisai was 
bleeding profusely and may have had a broken rib.  A doctor 
who examined the detainees the night of June 16 said that six 
of them, including Gwisai, required hospitalization, but 
police refused to release them, according to the June 18 
"Daily News."  The detainees were held a second night June 
17, but were due to appear in court on June 18.  Alarmed by 
the attempted gathering in Harare, police erected large-scale 
roadblocks on major thoroughfares leading into central Harare 
on the morning of June 17.  Unlike with previous roadblocks, 
where police would wave most vehicles through, nearly every 
vehicle was stopped and nearly every driver questioned, which 
led to unprecedented backups and traffic snarls in the 
morning rush-hour.  Police confirmed to us that preventing 
civil protest was the objective of the roadblocks.  As of 
June 18, roadblocks remained in place, but vehicles were 
being stopped less frequently. 
 
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Comment: GOZ is Running Scared 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Given the police's swift and heavy-handed reaction to 
attempted, small-scale gatherings in Manicaland and Harare, 
the GOZ is clearly becoming more concerned about some kind of 
MDC-sponsored mass action, the National Executive's earlier 
decision notwithstanding.  The GOZ is using all of the means 
at its disposal to head-off and disrupt any kind of gathering 
lest it erupt into a demonstration or riot that might spark a 
larger uprising.  Mugabe and his backers evidently believed 
that after the flawed presidential election, they could go 
back to business as usual; instead things have only gotten 
worse.  They may be starting to realize that the economic 
slide, with spiraling inflation, dried-up forex flows, and 
growing food shortages, has become so acute that even if 
ZANU-PF was willing to reverse its damaging policies now, it 
would not be enough to prevent widespread hunger and 
continued economic decline.  Combined with deep pools of 
disillusionment and anger, the hunger could become a 
dangerous catalyst for an explosion that the GOZ might have 
difficulty controlling.  End comment. 
 
 
SULLIVAN