US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1199

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY RUMBLE:  NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY 
POSIITONS FOR A SPLIT 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1055 
     B. (B) KATHMANDU 1091 
     C. (C) KATHMANDU 1141 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU)  As predicted (Ref A), supporters of Prime Minister 
Sher Bahadur Deuba have called a General Convention of the 
Nepali Congress Party with the aim of deposing Party 
President and former PM Girija Prasad Koirala from his post. 
The motion to oust Koirala from the party leadership is 
expected late the evening of June 18.  If carried, the motion 
will almost certainly provoke counter-challenges from the 
Koirala camp before the Election Commission and the Supreme 
Court.  Chronic intra-party strife threatens to continue to 
divert the nation's leadership from more important 
problems--such as the Maoist insurgency--afflicting the 
country.  A split in the party is also likely to offer new 
opportunities to the Congress' rivals, including the 
Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist, the 
largest Opposition party.  End summary. 
 
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PARTY GENERAL CONVENTION CONVENES 
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2.  (U)  After efforts to reconcile the two warring factions 
of the Nepali Congress Party proved fruitless, supporters of 
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba called a General Convention 
of the Nepali Congress Party membership in the capital June 
17-18 with the aim of deposing Party President and former PM 
Girija Prasad Koirala from his post.  The Convention caps a 
series of strikes and counter-strikes--including Deuba's 
expulsion from the party--in the ongoing power struggle 
between the two leaders (Reftels).  One delegate told the 
Ambassador June 17 that 800 bona fide Convention members (out 
of a total of 1,465) participated in the closed session the 
first day.  One local press report put the number of 
attendees at 900.  A 51 percent majority of Convention 
members' votes is needed in order to amend the party 
Constitution, while a two-thirds majority is needed to depose 
the President. 
 
3.  (SBU)  According to Karna Malla, PM Deuba's personal 
assistant, delegates at the second session the late afternoon 
of June 18 were voting on amendments to the party 
Constitution--including, most likely, the stipulation of a 
two-thirds majority to oust the President.  Once the 
amendments are accepted into the Constitution, a vote to 
depose the President will follow on the late evening of June 
18, Malla predicted.  As of COB June 18, the delegates 
remained closeted. 
 
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CONVENTION ILLEGAL, CLAIMS KOIRALA CAMP 
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4.  (SBU)  Also as expected, supporters of aging Party 
President G.P. Koirala are rejecting the Convention as 
illegal.  Party General Secretary Sushil Koirala (who was 
holding his own meeting with a rival group of party members 
when we talked to him June 18) claimed that the attendees do 
not hold valid credentials and noted that Koirala supporters 
are boycotting the sessions.  Deuba cannot call a General 
Convention now that he has been expelled from the party 
membership (Ref A).  Should Deuba admit his mistake in 
dissolving Parliament, however, his expulsion might be 
reconsidered, Koirala explained.  He added that he questions 
the attendance tallies reported in the daily press, asserting 
that no more than 400 members are attending the Convention. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5.  (SBU)  If Convention members proceed as expected with 
amending the Party Constitution to oust Koirala as Nepali 
Congress President, it could trigger a tendentious legal 
battle--played out first before the Election Commission Court 
and then, most likely, before the Supreme Court--as the two 
factions fight for the right to use the name, symbol, flag, 
and other assorted paraphernalia of Nepal's oldest and 
largest party in the November 13 elections.  (One historical 
note:  The Supreme Court heard a similar case in 1994, after 
the Election Commission refused to allow Baburam Bhattarai's 
faction of the United People's Front to register for 
elections.  Although Bhattarai's faction won before the 
Supreme Court, he refused to participate in the elections and 
went underground, re-emerging two years later to head the 
Maoist insurgency.)  Whatever the outcome of the legal 
contest, it is unlikely to matter to the country's voters as 
much as the fact that such protracted, self-interested 
intra-party squabbling continues to divert the leadership's 
attention from addressing far more significant issues--such 
as the Maoist insurgency--directly affecting their 
constituents.  Regardless of who prevails in court, this most 
recent Congress controversy can only further tarnish that 
proud old party's public image, thereby offering fresh 
opportunities to other contenders, including the Communist 
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist, in the upcoming 
elections. 
 
4. 
MALINOWSKI