US embassy cable - 05PARIS2831

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 PARIS 002831 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM USMISSION UNESCO PARIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TPHY, AORC, OTRA, PBTS, WWT, UNESCO 
SUBJECT: UNESCO/INTERNATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION 
MEETING COORDINATES INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM 
 
Ref: STATE 33352 
 
1.  Summary and Introduction: 
The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)convened 
The International Coordination Meeting for the development 
of a Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System for the Indian 
Ocean within a Global Framework, at UNESCO Headquarters in 
Paris, 3-8 March 2005.  The meeting  reinforced the IOC's 
lead role in coordinating global and regional tsunami 
warning systems, a primary USG goal.  (The USG supports 
expanding the Pacific Tsunami Warning network -- which 
exists under the auspices of the IOC -- to the Indian Ocean 
and other at risk areas, within the framework of the Global 
Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).  The meeting 
also resulted in the establishment of an International 
Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning and Mitigation 
System for the Indian Ocean, whose terms of reference will 
be approved at the IOC's General Assembly in June, as well 
as in the setting up of a process and timeline to design a 
basin-wide Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS). 
 
2.  The meeting concluded with a communique that underscored 
national responsibility for establishing and managing 
national warning systems, emphasized the critical role of 
education for community preparedness, and urged all 
countries to engage in capacity building and technology 
transfer in the Indean Ocean region.  It was decided that 
the IOTWS would consist of a coordinated network of national 
systems; though several countries vied for serving as the 
regional coordinator, there was no consensus on the matter. 
The communique also recommended that all Member States "make 
every endeavor" to share seismic, sea-level and other data 
relevant to tsunamigenic events at or near real-time. 
Within the IOC, the US has consistently supported open and 
free exchange of data, including in the context of tsunami 
warning systems; this is likely to remain a contentious 
issue as the IOTWS moves forward.  The communique and all 
presentations are available at 
http://ioc.unesco.org/indotsunami. 
 
3.  IOC will sponsor a follow-up meeting in Mauritius, 14-16 
April, with the aim to develop the draft design and work 
plan for presentation to the June IOC General Assembly.  For 
additional information, contact Liz Tirpak (DOS/OES, 
tirpakej@state.gov, 202-647-0238)  End Summary and 
Introduction. 
 
MEETING OVERVIEW 
---------------- 
 
4.  The IOC hosted the International Coordination Meeting 
for the Development of a Tsunami Warning and Mitigation 
System for the Indian Ocean within a Global Framework, in 
light of the tragic loss of life and massive destruction 
caused by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. 
 
5.  The U.S. policy statement, made by Head of Delegation 
and U.S. Representative to the IOC Executive Council, NOAA 
Assistant Administrator Dr. Richard Spinrad, was well 
received (full text at end of cable).  U.S. technical agency 
experts (USGS, USAID, NOAA) made formal presentations, 
intervened on key points and participated actively in all 
working groups.  The experience of the U.S.-hosted Pacific 
Tsunami Warning Center was acknowledged by several speakers. 
 
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6.  Many U.S. delegation goals were reinforced in the 
opening statement by UNESCO Director-General Koichiro 
Matsuura, who emphasized IOC's role in linking 
internationally- run detection/alert systems with nationally- 
run warning systems.  He underscored that a tsunami warning 
system should be fully embedded in the global ocean 
observing system (GOOS) that is regularly used for other 
hazards, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones. 
Following the February Global Earth Observation System of 
Systems (GEOSS) meeting and third Earth Observation Summit 
in Brussels, Matsuura noted that "synergies between existing 
and new systems will make possible a multi-hazard approach 
that should improve the cost-effectiveness and long-term 
sustainability of the overall system."  Lastly, he drew 
substantially on the experience of the Pacific Tsunami 
Warning Center in designing and operating a warning system 
TWS, providing for open, free and unrestricted exchange of 
data and information, and promoting the three components of 
a TWS: tsunami hazard assessment; detection/warning system; 
and adoption of preparedness measures. 
 
7.  Twenty IOC member states offered various levels of 
support for the creation of an Indian Ocean tsunami warning 
system. No nation rejected the idea, but no nation pledged 
support without conditions.  (Note:  Australia, India, 
Indonesia, and Thailand appear to have the most advanced 
planning with funding to back their plans.  All three plans 
are based on the Pacific Ocean Tsunami Warning System (PTWS) 
of an integrated approach of hazard assessment, warning 
guidance, and preparedness, with India's plan being the most 
comprehensive.  End Note.) 
 
8.  Data Exchange Issue - Several participants acknowledged 
that "immediate, free and open distribution of raw data from 
observing systems in real time" should serve as the founding 
principle for all regional and global tsunami warning 
systems, while India could offer only "international product 
sharing."  Other participants suggested that the IOC Data 
Exchange Policy, adopted by the Assembly in 2003, should 
serve as the "guiding principle" for IOTWS.  (Note: Though 
the U.S. endorsed the IOC Data Exchange Policy, the Policy 
refers only to oceanographic data, not to seismic or other 
types of data crucial to an effective tsunami warning 
system.)  The Communique ultimately recommended that all 
Member States "make every endeavor" to share seismic, sea- 
level and other data relevant to tsunamigenic events at or 
near real-time. 
 
9.  The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and the Japan 
Meteorological Agency agreed to provide interim tsunami 
alerts to the Indian Ocean region based on existing 
facilities until adequate warning capabilities are 
established within the region.  Four nations in the region 
(Australia, India, Indonesia, and Thailand) confirmed their 
plans to establish systems and capacities to detect and 
measure tsunamigenic events and issue appropriate warnings 
to forecast their impacts.  Until and unless a regional 
center is identified, the national centers agreed to supply 
product and services to other national centers in the 
region. 
 
10.  Discussions were organized by topic, addressed first in 
panel and later in three separate working groups.  The three 
main topics were technical aspects, organizational aspects, 
awareness and preparedness. 
 
Technical Aspects 
------------------ 
 
11.  The panel on the technical aspects of tsunami warning 
systems (TWS) was chaired by the representative from 
Indonesia who presented some graphical material on the 
effects of the recent tsunami and the need for improvement 
of monitoring and warning technologies in the Indian Ocean. 
The panel was made up of scientific and technical 
presentations by experts from the Russian Federation and 
Japan.  The Russian expert presented statistics on tsunami 
occurrence and likelihoods of tsunami generation and their 
severity from earthquakes of various magnitudes.  The 
Japanese experts covered the current technologies used in 
Japan to detect tsunami and issues warnings, with particular 
emphasis on the challenges of warnings of local tsunamis 
compared to those caused by distant earthquakes. 
Presentations also reviewed the factors controlling tsunami 
height and on-shore run-up.  The Chair of the IGC/ITSU gave 
the most scientifically controversial presentation by 
describing "emerging technologies" for tsunami detection and 
warning, including perturbation measurement from the 
ionosphere, infrasound  measurements, satellite-based ocean 
height measuring systems, and on-shore radar. 
 
12.  Dr. Neville Smith (Australia) chaired the technical 
aspects a working group, which was tasked to identify and 
recommend: (1) the technological basis for a tsunami warning 
system (measurements and telecommunications, analysis, 
processing and hazard/risk assessment); (2) design elements 
of an IOTWS, (3) the strategy for building an IOTWS, and (4) 
new technologies and research and development needed.  The 
resulting report consists of provided both general and 
specific a series of bulleted points recommendations that 
will be considered in for the preparation of the design 
plan: 
 - free and immediate flow of raw observational data, in 
real time over robust communication links, to all national 
and regional participants in the system is a necessary 
component for TWS. 
 - common approaches to data processing, hazard and risk 
modeling, and warning dissemination and message format are 
essential. 
 - coastal bathymetry, sea floor configuration, topography 
and land mapping are essential and must be carried out and 
be made available in high resolution format for all at-risk 
national coastal regions. 
 - utilization of new technologies should be explored. 
 - the requirements for use of space technology for 
tsunami applications must be defined. 
 
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 - network must enable the rapid verification of tsunami 
waves from sea-level and ocean-bottom sensors. 
.- geostationary communication satellites operating in the 
Indian Ocean region and the use of Global Telecommunication 
System (GTS) of WMO, currently operational used for the 
Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS) for collection of sea- 
level observations and distribution of bulletins and 
warnings, should be upgraded within 6 months and fully 
operational to address needs of the Indian Ocean region in 
the interim and longer-term be explored. 
 - broadband is needed for real-time distribution of seismic 
data. 
 - telecommunication systems that meet these requirements 
should be identified and utilized. 
 - risk management framework should be employed and 
complemented by robust models and scenarios of historical 
and potential tsunami events that can be used in the 
formation and dissemination of warnings. 
 - for both seismic and sea level networks - upgrades must 
must be identified and prioritized. 
 - establishment of deep ocean buoys useful for tsunami 
monitoring is needed. 
 - cable-based systems should also be assessed as these 
instruments are important for slumping events and other 
events that are not seen in seismic measurements. 
 - network planning should start with identifying and 
mapping the tsunami prone areas.  This should be based upon 
a historical study of earthquake and tsunami occurrences. 
 - robustness and durability of the instruments and the 
system as a whole to the impacts of the earthquakes needs to 
be considered 
 - emerging technologies should be considered in the overall 
strategy, to ensure the evolution of the system relative to 
best practice. 
 
13.  During the instrumentation and communication 
discussions, vocal participants with narrow interests often 
held the floor and carried their positions forward. 
Nevertheless, there was the recognition that many of the 
pieces for the ITOTWS are in place or in progress; the 
challenge rests in putting the pieces together in a 
structure that has the needed telecommunication, data 
processing, and warning dissemination capacities. 
 
14.  The general strategy of the IOTWS was defined to 
include: immediate, free and open distribution of raw data 
from the observing systems in real-time must be acknowledged 
as a founding principle for all regional and global tsunami 
warning systems, since without, both the timeliness and 
effectiveness of the system may be severely compromised.  It 
was noted that many of the standards that underlie the 
systems for open data collection and exchange can be adopted 
( or adapted) from already established international 
systems.  A sustained and reliable network will require 
sustained investment, national commitments, and 
international cooperation. 
 
15. In terms of the technological implementation, it was 
agreed that the tsunami warning system as a whole should be 
build on and be a part of a multi-purpose system, since . 
the sustainability of the observing system including cost 
effectiveness and efficiency are also enhanced with such an 
approach. 
 
16.  As the tsunami early warning system will be based upon 
various data acquisition and dissemination platforms, it was 
emphasized that the 
 
 -network of stations for tsunami early warning should be 
constantly monitored to guarantee its reliability and 
effectiveness. 
 - data must be quality controlled, and archived for post- 
event assessment and research. 
 - observation systems should be qualified and certified. 
 - warning criteria and standards need to be established 
drawing from PTWC protocols. 
 
The legal responsibility for issuing warnings (that may lead 
to evacuation) are assumed by national centers (unless other 
arrangements are agreed upon by countries). 
 
Organizational Aspects 
---------------------- 
 
17.  The panel on "Organizational and Practical Arrangements 
for a Regional Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System" 
featured presentations by the national programs of Chile and 
Japan.  Dr. Charles McCreery, Director Pacific Tsunami 
Warning Center, and Dr. Laura Kong, Director, International 
Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) presented regional 
 
SIPDIS 
dimensions. 
 
18.  It was noted that National centers are responsible for 
interpreting warning guidance from regional center(s), 
issuing local warnings, and issuing alerts for local events, 
while regional centers provide efficiency of operations, 
access to a larger suite of observations, and sharing of 
services.  Regional centers also provide serve as a focal 
point for mitigation activities, communications between 
stakeholders, products (e.g., tsunami travel and height 
maps), services (e.g., testing of communications systems, 
expertise exchange, quality control), and can provide backup 
functions for national centers.  Regional commitment and 
support and support from , national support, and 
international support levels can guarantee long-term 
sustainability of regional centers. 
 
19.  Kong described how the ITIC monitors the international 
tsunami warning system for the Pacific to improve 
 
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operations, assists member states with technology transfer, 
and provides technical assistance and training to improve 
national and community-level preparedness.  Kong also noted 
the importance of hazard reduction strategies, including 
preparation of inundation maps, evacuation maps, simulations 
and drills, to facilitate an effective response to tsunami 
warning.  ITIC training programs and outreach materials were 
offered to help prepare both national emergency management 
agencies and local communities to respond appropriately to 
tsunami warnings. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
20.  Conclusions of the working group on the organizational 
aspects of an IOTWS were captured in the Communique. 
 
AWARENESS AND PREPAREDNESS 
-------------------------- 
 
21.  The panel addressed on Tsunami awareness and 
preparedness reviewed national preparedness plans (New 
Zealand and Indonesia), community-based early warning 
systems (ISDR, Red Cross), awareness building and public 
information (Asian Disaster Reduction Centre), and 
institutional capacities for moving forward (UNDP). 
 
22.  The corresponding working group reviewed (1) risk and 
vulnerability assessment; (2) public awareness and 
education; and (3) preparedness and emergency response. To 
address risk reduction, the group called for preparation of 
hazard risk, inundation and evacuation maps that identify 
escape routes, safe areas and shelters.  The group 
acknowledged other methods of reducing risks - beyond the 
scope of ITSU - including land-use planning, structural 
interventions (building codes, coastal structures, elevated 
shelters), and non-structural interventions (protection, 
rehabilitation, and conservation of coastal ecosystems, 
including mangroves and coral reefs that help buffer coastal 
communities). 
 
23.  Awareness, education, and public outreach as were noted 
as essential ingredients in tsunami early warning systems, 
recognizing that innovation and local knowledge to can be 
used to build a culture of safety.  The group also called 
for special attention to building national and local 
preparedness and emergency response capacities, with clear 
and careful delineation of functions and responsibilities. 
 
BEYOND THE INDIAN OCEAN 
----------------------- 
 
24.  The final session on "The Indian Ocean System within a 
Global Framework" provoked substantial debate as to how 
other region's tsunami warning systems (e.g., Mediterranean 
and Northeast Atlantic, Caribbean and Central West Atlantic, 
and Southwest Pacific) would be reflected in the Communique. 
India and other IO members provided text that limited 
examples to areas adjacent to the Indian Ocean, such as 
South-East Asia and the South China Sea. 
 
Participating Organizations 
---------------------------- 
 
25.  Several organizations were invited to make 
announcements during the proceedings: 
 
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADCP) - Described 
experience in regional disaster projects and described a 
regional TWS that includes earthquake and tsunami 
monitoring. 
 
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) - 
Offered to share data archival technology. 
Global Earth Observational System of Systems (GEOSS) -Guy 
Duchossois described program and presented Tsunami 
Communique. 
 
GLOSS (IOC global sea level program) - Described current 
contribution in IO and recommended expansion of real time 
reporting stations. 
International Maritime Organization (IMO) - Described how 
warnings might be disseminated via ships. 
 
Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology - David 
Simpson described the standardized, real-time global seismic 
network, how it detected the Dec 26 earthquake, and how it 
could contribute to a global TWS. 
 
International Telecommunications Union (ITU) - Described 
their role in communications for all aspects of TWS. 
 
UN/ESCAP- - Described capabilities as they relate to a 
regional of global TWS. 
 
WMO - Described operational role in world weather 
forecasting and recommended that the TWS use their Global 
Telecommunications Networks to deliver tsunami warning 
information to ION nations. 
 
OLIVER