US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1910

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
1. Summary:  The major Taipei dailies over the weekend 
provided a great deal of coverage on the upcoming China 
trips by KMT Chairman Lien Chan and PFP Chairman James 
Soong, with two new angles:  President Chen Shui-bian's 
change of attitude about the visits, and the role of 
the United States with regard to Chen's change in 
attitude.  For April 24,  the front-page news story for 
the centrist "China Times," the pro-unification "United 
Daily News," and the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" -- 
and a page-two news story in the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" -- all carried Chen's remarks of the 
previous day in which he said he would give his 
blessings to the opposition leaders because their 
upcoming China visits may serve as a probe for future 
cross-Strait relations.  A "United Daily News" news 
story on page two April 24 quoted the KMT as saying 
that Chen's change of attitude is a result of the 
influence of Taiwan public opinion and the United 
States' open support for the opposition-party leaders' 
visits to China.  Taiwan's biggest daily, the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times," ran a banner headline on 
page two April 25 emphasizing that "Bian mentioned that 
[Lien's and Soong's trips] are a probe, but Chen never 
said he wants Lien and Soong to pave the way for [his 
trip to China.]"  A page-four news story of Monday's 
(4/25) "United Daily News" quoted a Pan-Blue source 
saying the United States conveyed its hope to Chen via 
AIT Director Douglas Paal and Taiwan's National 
Security Deputy Secretary-General Ke Cheng-heng that he 
will support Lien's visit to China, or Washington will 
not rule out the possibility of criticizing Chen in 
public.  A separate news story on the same page of the 
"United Daily News" cited DPP Secretary-General Su Chen- 
chang as saying that Chen's blessings for Lien and 
Soong were definitely not the result of U.S. 
manipulation. 
 
2. Professor Chu Yun-han of the National Taiwan 
University commented in the centrist "China Times" on 
the United States' role in cross-Strait relations by 
saying that the biggest obstruction for cross-Strait 
reconciliation will come from neo-conservatives inside 
the Bush administration, who believe that the United 
States must do all it can to thwart the rising of 
China.  A "United Daily News" news analysis said the 
critical fear that Chen's power might be taken away has 
finally been eliminated since Soong will visit China 
with the ten-point consensus he reached with President 
Chen Shui-bian, and Lien said he is willing to report 
to Chen about his trip prior to his departure.  A 
limited-circulation, pro-independence English-language 
"Taipei Times" editorial said the attitudes of the 
Taiwan and U.S. governments are too tolerant of Lien 
and Soong, while a limited-circulation, pro-unification 
English-language "China Post" editorial said it is 
possible that Lien's and Soong's trips to China will 
lead to an eventual meeting between Chen Shui-bian and 
Chinese President Hu Jintao.  End summary. 
 
A) "The Energy and Positive Foundation for Peace across 
the Taiwan Strait" 
 
Chu Yun-han, professor of political science professor 
at the National Taiwan University, commented in the 
"Weekly Review" column in the centrist, pro-status quo 
"China Times" [circulation: 600,000] (4/25): 
 
"Beginning this week, [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan and [PFP 
Chairman] James Soong will separately begin their first- 
ever trips to mainland China.  The ice-breaking trips 
will not only offer Lien and Soong an opportunity to 
climb up a lofty political mountain range that no one 
has ever attempted to [climb] over more than five 
decades of cross-Strait confrontations, but will also 
create a chance which may lead to a whole new page for 
cross-Strait relations. . 
 
"The United States, via a delicate manipulation of 
diplomatic and military policies, has persistently 
tried to make sure that the development of cross-Strait 
relations as well as political developments inside 
Taiwan would meet Washington's strategic interests in 
East Asia.  In the meantime, the fact that the 
political discussions inside Taiwan tend to uphold the 
de jure independence [of Taiwan] as an ultimate and non- 
transferable option, and that the discourse on Taiwan's 
entity, which tends to define the nature of cross- 
Strait relations as a zero-sum game, have constantly 
gained an upper hand in all debates has deprived many 
local political elites of political imagination.  These 
political elites no longer know how to make use of the 
tremendous transitional energy inherent in a [possible] 
political reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait or 
how to proactively convert such hidden energy into 
substantive politics and a positive economic foundation 
that will benefit Taiwan's existence and development. 
Up to the eve of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan elections at 
the end of last year, leaders in Beijing focused their 
thoughts and energies in how to prevent de jure Taiwan 
independence; they have never really planned or worked 
out a blueprint about how to lead both sides of the 
Taiwan Strait to move toward comprehensive political 
reconciliation. 
 
"All the elements that have hindered and oppressed the 
release of the energy of a cross-Strait political 
reconciliation continue to exist, and it's unlikely 
they will fade away in a short period of time.  The 
road to political reconciliation across the Taiwan 
Strait is of course full of turns and twists.  The 
biggest obstruction will definitely come from the neo- 
conservatisms inside the Bush administration, who 
believe that the United States must do all it can to 
bar the rising of China.  For them, the Taiwan issue is 
like a heavy historical burden tied to China's back, 
which can considerably consume China's energy and 
resources, restrain the flexibility of China's military 
strategy, and evidently undermine Beijing's ability and 
justification to play a leading role in constructing 
security and order in East Asia.  If both sides of the 
Taiwan Strait move toward comprehensive reconciliation, 
it will mean that China has finally lay down a heavy 
strategic burden.  As a result, the strategic situation 
in East Asia will move toward a direction that is 
favorable for China's peaceful rising, and Japan will 
hesitate all the more about the strategic option of 
whether it should join hands with the United States in 
containing China.  In the end, such a development will 
lead to an overall decline of the United States' 
leading role in East Asia.  But the enormous 
transitional energy hidden in the reconciliation across 
the Taiwan Strait also gave some Taiwan political 
figures who have historical imagination an opportunity 
to seek from the Beijing leaders substantial political 
concessions and economic development benefits [for 
Taiwan].  In fact, given the condition that the power 
driving nationalistic movements inside Taiwan is 
declining and Taiwan's economics is increasingly 
leaning toward mainland China, policy makers in the 
United States have begun to worry that Taiwan, 
following Seoul, will be the next chess on the 
strategic chessboard of East Asia whose position will 
likely sway.  Accordingly, the United States did not 
hesitate to give up its most valuable achievement 
during the World War II, which was gained at the 
expense of numerous lives: Japan's constitution of 
peace.  The United States wants to tightly grip its 
only reliable strategic partner in East Asia - Japan - 
by revising the U.S.-Japan security pact and ostensibly 
supporting Japan's bid to become a permanent member of 
the UN Security Council. ." 
 
B) "Lien to Report to Bian, and Bian's Crisis of His 
Power Being Taken Away Will Be Removed" 
 
Journalist Luo Hsiao-he said in a news analysis in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" (4/24): 
 
"The China visits by [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan and [PFP 
Chairman] James Soong in succession have dealt a 
serious blow to the prestige of the ruling DPP 
government.  But following the moves that Soong will 
visit China bringing his ten-point consensus with 
President Chen Shui-bian, and Lien is willing to report 
to Chen about his trip [prior to his departure], the 
crisis that Chen's power might be taken away has 
finally been eliminated.  Chen, following the suit of 
the United States, is now happy to support Lien and in 
the meantime is trying to keep some room for the 
upcoming meeting between Lien and [Chinese President] 
Hu Jintao. . 
 
"The whole situation changed subtly following Beijing's 
announcement that it was extending an invitation to 
Soong.  Beijing's two-handed strategy has created a 
free-flowing and feasible approach for a [potential] 
Chen-Hu meeting in the future and has offered Chen an 
opportunity to `get involved' in the heat of Lien's and 
Soong's China visits.  No matter whether [or not] 
Beijing did it because it took into consideration 
Washington's push for official talks across the Taiwan 
Strait, the move has effectively removed the crisis of 
Chen being marginalized. ." 
 
C) "Be Less Tolerant of Lien and Soong" 
 
The pro-independence English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (4/24): 
 
". On Tuesday, Randall Schriver, the US deputy 
assistant secretary of state in charge of China and 
Taiwan issues told reporters that `the leaders in 
Beijing will ultimately have to talk to the elected 
leaders in Taiwan and the government that is in power.' 
 
"If Beijing is only willing to speak with opposition 
leaders such as Lien and People First Party (PFP) 
Chairman James Soong, the already complicated cross- 
strait relationship will only become more complicated. 
So, although Schriver did not criticize Lien and Soong, 
it isn't hard to detect some degree of skepticism.  The 
KMT is obviously aware of this. . 
 
"At the same time, the Presidential Office has 
indicated that it is treating the visits by Lien and 
Soong as purely private in nature and without any 
official status.  From that standpoint, the 
Presidential Office has indicated support for Lien and 
Soong's trips.  The government's change in posture 
obviously had much to do with the promises conveyed by 
Lien and Soong -either through the US or other channels 
- to not overstep their bounds. 
 
"The attitude of the Taiwan and US governments can be 
interpreted as follows: If you must go, then so long as 
you do not do anything illegal, we'll give you the 
benefit of the doubt.  However, that attitude is way 
too tolerant of Lien and Soong. . 
 
". Lien and Soong are also leaders of political 
parties.  Voters have cast ballots for their parties in 
freely-held elections, and in that sense they are 
politically accountable to the people of Taiwan.  Their 
trips have helped ease international pressure on China 
for its enactment of the `Anti-Secession' Law and 
diverted the Taiwanese public's attention.  For that, 
they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt from 
anyone." 
 
D) "Lien Chan's `Journey of Peace'" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] noted in an 
editorial (4/23): 
 
". Although it is not yet certain s to what Lien Chan 
will bring home after the eight-day, four-city `tour of 
peace,' one thing seems sure, however.  Cross-strait 
tensions will ease as a result.  Exchanges in the 
fields of culture, tourism, economy will improve.  The 
long-awaited `san tong' (direct trade, transport, and 
other links) will get greater momentum. Even political 
dialogue between Beijing and Taipei is no longer 
impossible. . 
 
"What may leave the `pan green' camp of separatists 
sitting resentfully on the sidelines is Washington's 
open support for Lien Chan's ice-breaking visit to 
China.  A spokesman for the State Department said this 
week it is a `positive step' for Taiwan's individuals 
to visit China.  The United States welcomes any move 
that will help reduce cross-strait tensions and enhance 
mutual understanding, the spokesman said. 
 
"Will these steps lead to an eventual meeting between 
Chen Shui-bian and Hu Jintao?  Nobody knows.  But the 
United States would welcome such an eventuality.  A Hu- 
Chen handshake?  Is this too far-fetched?  But in 
realpolitik, nothing is impossible." 
 
PAAL