US embassy cable - 05KINGSTON1106

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001106 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 
NSC FOR SHANNON 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2015 
TAGS: JM, PREL, PGOV 
SUBJECT: PNP INSIDER SHARES PREDICTIONS OF PRIME MINISTER'S 
RETIREMENT, SUCCESSION 
 
REF: 04 KINGSTON 02898 
 
Classified By: MARK J. POWELL FOR REASONS 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
1. (U) Poloff met on April 18 with Balfour Denniston, member 
of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the People's 
National Party (PNP).  Denniston discussed Prime Minister 
P.J. Patterson's expected plans for retirement in the next 
year, and the candidates who are likely to succeed him as 
party leader and Prime Minister. 
 
2. (C) Asked by Poloff about recent rumors that the Prime 
Minister might remain in office longer than previously 
expected, Denniston said that it was likely that Patterson 
would retire in early 2006, perhaps in March or April.  At 
the end of 2004, PNP insiders expected Patterson to step down 
as early as March 2005 (reftel).  Denniston said that 
Patterson's motivations to extend his term include his desire 
to be succeeded by Finance Minister Omar Davies, whose 
lagging campaign would have more time to develop the longer 
Patterson delays his retirement.  Denniston also said that 
Patterson would like to secure Jamaica's relationship with 
the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) before he steps down, 
and that he would prefer to attend the September G-77 
meetings in New York while still in office. 
 
3. (C) Offering an assessment of Omar Davies' campaign to 
succeed the Patterson, Denniston made it clear that he very 
much doubts that Davies will be successful.  He explained 
that Davies is a politician whose power as Finance Minister 
far outweighs his popularity in representational politics. 
Davies is respected for ably handling a very technical and, 
to most voters, ethereal portfolio: managing the country's 
debt-laden finances.  However, he does not command the same 
loyalty among his constituents as his more popular colleagues 
in Parliament. 
 
4. (C) Denniston also commented on the candidacy of Portia 
Simpson Miller, Minister of Local Government, Community 
Development, and Sports.  He proffered that, in contrast to 
Davies, Simpson Miller continues to be very popular, and that 
the race "is hers to lose."  Simpson Miller's portfolio, he 
explained, is much more accessible to the voting public, and 
has allowed her to garner support and develop very strong 
relationships at the local level, even with many of the 
island's opposition Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) members of 
Parliament. 
 
5. (C) Commenting on new JLP leader Bruce Golding's recent 
victory in the West Kingston by-election for a much-needed 
parliamentary seat, Denniston asserted that Golding's ascent 
to the official position of Leader of the Opposition is 
welcomed by the PNP.  He suggested that the government called 
for the by-election early )- which allowed Golding to 
represent the JLP in the parliamentary budget debate on April 
21 )- because the PNP considers Golding to be less of a 
threat, particularly in Parliamentary debates, than interim 
Opposition Leader Kenneth Baugh.  (Comment: We suspect that 
Denniston was being disingenuous in describing the PNP's 
acquiescence to Golding's inevitable rise to opposition 
leadership, particularly given Golding's demonstrated 
debating strengths, and his very capable and highly regarded 
performance in the budget debate.  End Comment.) 
 
6. (C) Comment:  Poloff has met recently with four different 
PNP insiders, all of whom have indicated that Patterson may 
delay his retirement beyond previous expectations.  While one 
suggested that the Prime Minister would not step down until 
2007, three offered March or April of 2006 as a likely 
retirement date.  Each of them spoke of Patterson's desire to 
wrap up unfinished business and secure his legacy as his 
primary motivation to extend his term in office.  Patterson 
has commented publicly that he will not lead the PNP into the 
next general election, to be held no later than October 2007, 
but has not revealed specific plans as to when he might demit 
office.  Portia Simpson Miller remains the PNP frontrunner to 
succeed him, well ahead of National Security Minister Peter 
Phillips and Davies.  Though Phillips and Davies both trump 
Simpson Miller in Jamaica's very important "credentials 
sweepstakes" (both hold doctorates), neither can match her 
clear rapport with most Jamaicans.  The fate of the 
candidates will be determined at the party's annual 
conference, usually held in September, where delegates will 
choose a party leader who, in turn, will run against Bruce 
Golding. 
TIGHE