US embassy cable - 05AMMAN3252

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 003252 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KISL, JO 
SUBJECT: TRADITIONALISTS CONTINUE THEIR OPPOSITION TO NEW 
CABINET; IAF SUPPORT MAY BE CRITICAL FOR VOTE OF CONFIDENCE 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 2973 
 
     B. AMMAN 2969 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Despite overtures by the King and PM Badran, 
traditionalists in parliament have not withdrawn their 
opposition to the new cabinet.  The GOJ is considering the 
addition to two new ministers from the south to address 
complaints of geographic inequity, but Finance Minister 
Bassem Awadallah remains the focus of the East Bank MPs' 
opposition.  Their anger is focused on the "foreign" nature 
of the economic team -- too western-oriented, too 
Palestinian, and too closely associated with U.S. policy 
objectives.  In fact, there are pervasive rumors in 
parliament and elsewhere that the new cabinet was selected 
under U.S. pressure, or even by a U.S. hand.  The Islamic 
Action Front (IAF) -- which has a good back channel to the 
current PM through his brother -- has so far refrained from 
criticizing the new cabinet and held a reportedly friendly 
meeting with Badran to discuss Islamist concerns.  If the 43 
"traditionalists" who have pledged to withhold their 
confidence in the new government remain firm, the IAF's 21 
potential votes will determine whether this King's cabinet 
survives its first confidence vote when parliament reconvenes 
in coming months.  They may expect to extract more than 
dialogue and friendly meetings as the price of their votes. 
This situation will squeeze the politically inexperienced 
Prime Minister, who must also answer to a King determined to 
cut the Islamists down to size before the country launches 
the next phase of political liberalization initiatives.  The 
IAF may calculate that they should protect Badran now, help 
sustain the reform process, and then reap the rewards of a 
more open political environment in future -- a type of long 
term political calculation rare in this parliament, but a 
hallmark of the IAF.  Meanwhile, the government has sped up 
the timeline for the work of the "national agenda" 
commission, which will now report in July its conclusions on 
comprehensive reform and enhanced attention to the needs of 
Jordanians in all sectors.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------- 
TURNING ON THE CHARM 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  In response to the vocal complaints of loyalist, 
East Banker MPs about the new cabinet and the lack of 
parliamentary input in the selection process (refs A and B), 
both King Abdullah and PM Adnan Badran have sought to placate 
these important constituents.  The King met on April 12 with 
Senate President Zeid Rifai, Lower House Speaker Abdul Hadi 
Majali and key members of parliament to listen to their 
concerns and, as reported in the press, to promise that MPs 
would be kept abreast of government decisions and plans (in 
fact, the King told Charge weeks ago, when he first started 
to formulate his thinking on a new cabinet, that he planned 
to hold this meeting with MPs, in order to gain their support 
or at least neutrality on his reform agenda).  "The 
government cannot work alone ... the people's representatives 
have a great responsibility of backing government plans to 
achieve development," the King later said in a public 
statement. 
 
3.  (C)  PM Badran has also reached out to critics of the new 
government.  Over the last week he has met several times with 
groups of MPs from different parliamentary blocs, as well as 
with nationalist political party leaders.  According to press 
reports, Badran stressed the need for a national consensus on 
political reform and related legislation, including the 
poorly-received draft political parties law.  Interior 
Minister Yarvas told Charge recently, without much 
conviction, that "the spirit of dialogue" would characterize 
the government's approach to the opposition, including in 
handling key democratization legislation now with parliament, 
such as laws to encourage political party formation and to 
restructure professional associations. 
 
4.  (C)  While damage control efforts by the King and Badran 
have temporarily quelled public criticism, traditionalist 
forces have not withdrawn their opposition to the new 
cabinet.  MP Abdul Al-Maayteh (East Banker, Kerak) told 
reporters the day following the King's meeting with MPs that 
the 34 deputies who publicly pledged to withhold their votes 
of confidence in the government (ref B) had not changed their 
stance.  (NOTE: As of April 25, 43 MPs have signed this 
pledge.  END NOTE.)  Maayteh added, however, that the MPs 
realized the government "needs sufficient time" to respond to 
their complaints.  MP Abdullah al-Jazi (East Banker, Southern 
Badia) told poloff April 18 that Speaker Majali had been 
"surprisingly frank" in expressing the concerns of East Bank 
loyalists to the King.   Al-Jazi confirmed that the group of 
traditionalist MPs had not softened their two key demands -- 
inclusion of ministers from the south in the cabinet, and 
removal of Finance Minister Bassem Awadallah.  When asked 
which of the two was the priority, al-Jazi replied, 
"Awadallah." 
 
5.  (C)  In separate meetings on April 24, MPs Atef Tarawneh 
(East Banker, Kerak) and Jamal Dmour (East Banker, Kerak) 
bemoaned the new cabinet to poloff.  Tarawneh complained that 
after "losing" his constituents by backing tax and price 
hikes in 2004, he and his East Bank colleagues had now "lost 
the government."  He said that only removal of Awadallah 
could persuade him and his colleagues to withdraw their 
opposition to the new cabinet; even "financial incentives" 
would not persuade him to change his mind.  Dmour was 
similarly bitter over parliament's non-role in shaping 
Badran's government and the selection of Awadallah as Finance 
Minister.  "How could they choose someone who has offended us 
so deeply?" he asked.  While both MPs claimed to be 
pro-reform, they made clear that they did not support changes 
that would increase political power (or representation in 
parliament) of Jordanians of Palestinian origin.  "I cannot 
accept being a stranger in my own country," commented 
Tarawneh. 
 
---------------- 
MADE IN THE USA? 
---------------- 
 
6.  (C)  According to multiple MP contacts, there is a 
widespread (and widely believed) rumor in parliament that the 
cabinet was selected under strong U.S. pressure, or at least 
approved in advance by the U.S.  Another rumor has it that 
the King did not want Awadallah in the cabinet, but that the 
U.S. forced his inclusion.  Several MPs have urged the 
Embassy to issue a public statement denying U.S. involvement 
in the cabinet selection process to dispel accusations of 
American meddling.  These rumors are not confined to 
parliament, but are nearly omnipresent.  On April 19, for 
example, Amal Sabbagh, Secretary General of the Jordanian 
National Commission for Women, repeated this misinformation 
to poloff, noting that the timing of the cabinet change (soon 
after the King's visit to Washington) and Awadallah's current 
trip to the U.S. had convinced many Jordanians that the 
rumors were true.  (Note: Awadallah, newly appointed as 
Finance Minister, was in Washington for the Spring World 
Bank/IMF meetings and to meet a long-standing commitment to 
testify before the SFRC on education reform in the Middle 
East.)   She also made clear her disdain for Awadallah, 
saying that while he was portrayed as a reformist, his 
"paternalistic attitude" in dealing with NGOs proved 
otherwise. 
 
--------------------------------- 
ISLAMISTS STANDING BACK FROM FRAY 
--------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU)  While some of the King's loyal backers are leading 
the charge against the cabinet, the IAF -- normally the 
leading critic of recent Jordanian cabinets -- is taking a 
more neutral, if not supportive, stance.  Describing their 
April 17 meeting with PM Badran as "positive," IAF MPs told 
reporters that they felt the government was "serious" about 
tackling issues of citizen concern.  MP Ali Abul Sukkar (West 
Banker, Zarqa) stated, "There was a general feeling of relief 
following the meeting with Badran, where we sensed his 
responsiveness to the issues we put before him."  According 
to the press, the IAF MPs presented Badran with a memo 
calling on the GOJ to amend the current electoral and public 
assembly laws, as well as scrap draft legislation submitted 
by the former cabinet on political parties and the 
professional associations.  It further urged the government 
to reject any increases in prices or taxes.  In response, 
Badran reiterated his government's commitment to reform, 
while also mentioning that he was considering the addition of 
two ministers from the south to his cabinet. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C)  Opposition to the new government from loyalist East 
Bankers continues to defy expectations.  In a break from past 
practice, traditionalist MPs have remained staunchly 
against the cabinet even after overtures from the King and 
PM.  Contacts within this camp emphasize to us that they 
remain very loyal to King Abdullah, but complain that the 
King is getting "bad advice" and that his inner circle is out 
of touch with the desires of "real" Jordanians.  This kind of 
talk is not-too-subtle code that expresses these East 
Bankers' loathing for Palestinian Jordanians like Awadallah. 
 
9.  (C) The IAF's reaction to the government reflects their 
calculation that they have little to lose, and possibly much 
to gain, from a government serious about reform -- and are in 
a position to make or break Badran's vote of confidence. 
With 43 "traditionalists" pledged to withhold their 
confidence, the IAF's 21 potential votes will determine 
whether it can survive a confidence vote, due when the King 
reconvenes the house into an extraordinary session, expected 
by June.  The unanswered question is what price they will 
extract for support.  They have a good back channel to the 
Prime Minister through his brother, Mudar Badran, who led the 
only Jordanian government with IAF/Muslim Brotherhood members 
in it, in 1990-91.  Political commentators here believe that 
the PM is using that back channel to keep the peace with the 
IAF.  However, he is undoubtedly going to be squeezed between 
the Islamists' expectations of rewards for support and the 
King's desire to dilute their dominance of organized politics 
-- a dilution he deems necessary if he is going to prevent 
them from crowding out moderates once sustained 
democratization initiatives get underway this Fall.  However, 
the IAF may be playing the game with a longer view in 
perspective: contacts within Islamist circles report that the 
IAF is convinced that greater public freedoms and a more 
representative parliament will increase their political 
influence and corresponding ability to shape government 
policy.  They may be prepared, therefore, to protect Badran 
and avoid the temptation of extracting a high price today, in 
anticipation of rewards to come in a more open political 
environment. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through 
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page. 
HALE