US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM801

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000801 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: 4/25/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TZ 
SUBJECT: Zanzibar Registration Crisis Averted for 
Now 
 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 772,  B) Dar es Salaam 732, C) 
Dar es Salaam 711, D)Dar es Salaam 551 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The Zanzibar Electoral Commission 
(ZEC) is taking concrete action to fix the problems 
that have plagued voter registration, and Zanzibar's 
recalcitrant political leaders have rather 
grudgingly indicated they will allow the ZEC a free 
hand to do so.  From April 18-20, Diplomatic Heads 
of Mission from donor countries called on Zanzibari 
political leaders to transmit a common message 
urging respect for the ZEC and for the legally 
established registration procedures.  After an April 
21 meeting to exchange information on the weeks' 
events, the Diplomatic Group agreed that, for now at 
least, the credibility crisis for the Zanzibari 
voters register has been averted.  The Diplomats 
nonetheless believed that Zanzibar would continue to 
lurch from one crisis to the next until election 
day.  The Heads of Mission plan monthly visits to 
Zanzibar, to call on political leaders and reiterate 
the message.  End Summary. 
 
The Diplomatic Group: Seeking the Right Strategy 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2. (C) In their April 15 meeting at UNDP 
headquarters (please see Reftel A), the Diplomatic 
Group assessed worrisome trends in voter 
registration, and agreed on a common message to be 
delivered to influential Zanzibar political leaders. 
The final version of the message contains eleven 
points, which in their most succinct form can be 
summarized as follows:  urge all stakeholders to 
support the ZEC and allow the ZEC to conduct 
registration in accordance with the law; urge the 
political parties to show restraint and commitment 
to non-violence, and to revive inter-party dialogue. 
 
3. (SBU) Over the next several days, small groups of 
diplomats conducted a series of meeting with the 
political leaders who are thought to be particularly 
influential, for better or for worse, in Zanzibar's 
registration process.  On April 19, the High 
Commissioners of Canada and the UK, together with 
the UNDP Resident Representative, traveled to 
Zanzibar to call on the Acting Minister for Good 
Governance Shamhuna and the ZEC Elections Director 
Khamis Ame.  On April 20, the Nordic Ambassadors 
delivered their message to Zanzibar President Amani 
Abeid Karume, during a previously scheduled meeting 
to follow up on Karume's recent trip to the region. 
CUF party Secretary General (and beleaguered 
candidate for the Zanzibar Presidency) Seif Sharif 
Hamad met with the British and Canadian High 
Commissioners and a group of Nordic Ambassadors.  On 
April 21, the Diplomatic Group reconvened at UNDP 
headquarters to exchange information on the 
meetings, to assess developments, and plan their 
next steps. 
 
CCM, CUF Leaders:  Saying the Right Things 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) The separate meetings with CCM party 
hardliners Shamhuna and Karume went as well as could 
be expected.  Initially, Acting Minister of Good 
Governance Shamhuna indulged in some venting against 
the opposition CUF party.  He also defended the 
shehas, the local government administrators who have 
been blatantly, and illegally, usurping ZEC 
authority in the Registration Centers of Urban West 
Region.  However, Shamhuna said that he would brief 
President Karume and Chief Minister Nahodha about 
the eleven point message.  He also said that he 
would call in the District and Regional 
Commissioners (the shehas' superiors in the 
government's chain of command) so they could remind 
the shehas that their residential lists must be open 
to ZEC scrutiny and that the shehas had no authority 
to deny people registration.  Shamhuna agreed that 
inter-party dialogue might help ease tensions on 
Zanzibar.  He said it would be helpful to revive the 
Secretaries General Committee, consisting of CCM 
 
SIPDIS 
Secretary General Phillip Mangula and his CUF 
 
SIPDIS 
counterpart Seif Sharif Hamad.  (A historical note: 
the Secretaries General met several times before the 
Pemba by-elections of May, 2003.  Their joint 
announcement on the voting rights of members of the 
security forces did more than any other single event 
to defuse tension and ensure the by-elections were 
peaceful.) 
5. (C) Zanzibar President Karume appeared well- 
briefed on the problems with voter registration, 
saying that he agreed with the recent report by the 
election-observation NGO "TEMCO."  Karume blamed 
insubordinate shehas who did not understand 
registration procedures, implying that any problems 
originated far below his pay grade.  Karume 
refrained from criticizing the ZEC, and said that he 
"couldn't agree more" about the need to respect the 
ZEC's authority to conduct registration and 
elections.  He assured the Heads of Mission that the 
Zanzibari government would not interfere with the 
registration process.  President Karume agreed that 
inter-party dialogue could help defuse the current 
tensions; he even suggested establishing a telephone 
"hotline" between leaders of the ruling CCM party 
and the opposition CUF. 
 
6. (C) Seeking to be even-handed, some Heads of 
Mission met with CUF Party Secretary General Seif 
Sharif Hamad, to urge that political opposition also 
respect the ZEC's role in coordinating voter 
registration.  The consensus in the Diplomatic Group 
is that Hamad and the CUF party are far more "sinned 
against than sinning," in the confrontations 
accompanying voter registration.  Nonetheless, in 
the mass rally called April 17 to protest the denial 
of Hamad's registration, Hamad had made unhelpful 
remarks, saying that the CUF party mistrusted the 
ZEC and would publish its own election results.  The 
diplomats reminded Hamad that only the ZEC had the 
legal authority to announce the outcome of the 
election, and that the opposition had the most to 
gain from adhering to the legal procedures.  Hamad 
took these points.  Regarding the call for inter- 
party dialogue, Hamad said that for the last ten 
months, he had sought a meeting with his CCM 
counterpart, Secretary General Phillip Mangula, but 
that the CCM appeared reluctant to revive the 
Secretaries' General Committee. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ZEC:  Doing the Right Things 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (C) On April 19, the visiting Heads of Mission 
found that ZEC Elections Director Khamis Ame was 
planning concrete, practical measures to set the 
troubled registration process right.  First, higher 
levels of the ZEC were reviewing the denial of 
Hamad's registration, which even many CCM supporters 
considered to be politicized and unfair. (Days 
later, the ZEC reversed the original decision and 
allowed Hamad to register.)  Khamis reported that 
the ZEC had also withdrawn credentials from two 
shehas who had consistently interfered with the 
registration process, denying the shehas access to 
the registration centers, and sending a warning to 
other shehas who might overstep their authority. 
 
8. (U) Most importantly, the ZEC was addressing the 
problem of the thousands of individuals, most of 
them presumably opposition supporters, who had been 
arbitrarily denied registration or the right to 
appeal.  Khamis said the ZEC would extend 
registration in Urban West Region at least through 
April 26, and had the authority to extend 
registration for as long as was necessary to ensure 
all eligible Zanzibaris had the opportunity to 
register.  (The extension period includes a weekend 
and the April 26 Union Day holiday.  This may 
facilitate registration for Zanzibaris with jobs, 
who have found it difficult to spare up to nine 
hours to wait in line at the registration centers.) 
Finally, the ZEC intends to set up a special table 
at each center for the sole purpose of distributing 
form 2-D to people who have been denied registration 
and assisting them to initiate their appeals. 
 
9. (C) Khamis said that the ZEC would also start to 
publish statistics detailing the numbers of 
registrations, denials and objections in each 
district.  The diplomats received this information 
enthusiastically, noting that the publication of 
district-level data would help build the credibility 
of the register among the political parties and the 
general public.  (As an example, the British High 
Commissioner later observed that the objection 
process is now complete in the two regions of Pemba 
Island, which had its share of registration 
controversies.  The ZEC demonstrated competence and 
professionalism on Pemba, where 157,000 voters 
registered and objections numbered a respectable, 
and manageable, 2,442.)  The Heads of Mission urged 
ZEC officials to meet with party leaders and other 
stakeholders, and to publicize the ZEC's voter 
registration efforts more widely.  Khamis, who 
became the scapegoat for the troubles in Zanzibar's 
previous elections, nonetheless hesitated to raise 
the ZEC's profile further at this time. 
 
The Diplomatic Group:  Keeping Everything on Track 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
10. (C) British High Commissioner voiced the 
consensus when he told the Diplomatic Group that 
Zanzibar's voter registration appeared to be back on 
the right track, for now.  Pocock said that he 
nonetheless thought it likely that Zanzibar would 
continue to lurch from one crisis to the next until 
Election Day in October. In a suggestion that was 
generally well-received, Pocock suggested that Heads 
of Mission from the Diplomatic Group plan to travel 
to Zanzibar at least monthly to meet with political 
leaders.  He thought diplomatic group should 
continue to reiterate the eleven points, until 
circumstances dictated that the message be revised 
and updated.  The Diplomatic Group agreed that every 
Heads of Mission visit to Zanzibar should include a 
call on the ZEC, both to obtain regular updates on 
the elections preparations and to demonstrate 
diplomatic support for the Commission. 
 
11. (C) The next round of calls for the Heads of 
Mission is set for April 26, on the margins of Union 
Day events in Dodoma.  Charge d'Affaires Stillman 
will join the High Commissioners of the UK and 
Canada for meetings with Minister of Home Affairs 
Omar Mapuri and CCM Secretary General Phillip 
Mangula.  The Diplomatic Group hopes to persuade 
these national level leaders of the CCM party to be 
part of the solution to the problem of restoring 
credibility to the Zanzibar voter register.  Mapuri, 
in addition to his Home Affairs portfolio, is a 
Zanzibari who helped negotiate and implement the 
bipartisan Muafaka Accord on behalf of the ruling 
CCM party.  When conflict marred voter registration 
on Pemba Island last December, Mapuri helped to 
restore calm with a public call for the militias to 
respect the authority of the police and the ZEC. 
Mapuri said all the right things in public, even 
though he reportedly faced harsh criticism in 
private from CCM hardliners.  CCM Secretary General 
Phillip Managula is an old-fashioned CCM loyalist, 
and the other half of the Secretaries General 
Committee which was so helpful in ensuring the 2003 
Pemba by-elections were free, fair and peaceful. 
 
12. (C) Comment: These latest discussions with 
Elections Director Khamis Ame demonstrate once again 
that the ZEC has technical expertise and a real 
commitment to conducting a credible election. 
Clearly, Khamis knows what to do to correct the 
distortions that threaten the credibility of the 
voters register.  The question that still remains is 
whether the ZEC's many working-level officials can 
actually defy the shehas, and implement these 
measures in the 82 registration centers of Urban 
West Region.  It also remains to be seen if 
political leaders will help the ZEC to rebuild 
public confidence in the voter register.  In 
particular, the ZEC must effectively reach out to 
those citizens - likely numbering at least several 
thousand -- who have been denied registration and 
the due process to file an appeal.  The diplomatic 
Group must continue to monitor the situation on the 
ground, and continue to address the new problems and 
controversies that will inevitably develop.   End 
comment. 
 
STILLMAN