US embassy cable - 05SANAA1037

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001037 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, PTER, YM, DOMESTIC POLITICS 
SUBJECT: AL-HOUTHI LEADERS FLEE YEMEN, REBELLION NEAR END 
BUT VIOLENCE CONTINUES 
 
REF: A. SANAA 949 
     B. SANAA 426 
 
Classified By: DCM Nabeel Khoury for reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
1. (C) Summary.  The level of conflict between government and 
rebel forces in the Sa'ada region seems to be decreasing, but 
clashes continue in isolated areas.  The leaders of the 
uprising are rumored to have fled the country, perhaps under 
a negotiated agreement.  There is considerable risk that 
violence may again flare up, as tribes become involved the in 
the conflict due to charges of harsh army tactics and 
widespread resentment among the population.  End summary. 
 
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Leadership on the Lamb 
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2. (C) Clashes between al-Houthi rebels and government forces 
are diminishing in Sa'ada, but fighting continues in the 
regions of al-Shafa'a, Razamat, and Beni Ma'ad.  There is 
continued unrest in Sa'ada city, as well, where a March 23 
attack killed three security officials in the al-Salaam 
quarter.  According to a number of media sources, rebel 
leaders Badr Eddin al-Houthi and Abdullah Ayedh al-Razami 
have fled Yemen for either Saudi Arabia or Bahrain.  (Note: 
These reports are unconfirmed and there are separate rumors 
that at least some of the leadership is hiding in the al-Jawf 
region of Yemen. End note).  According to Abd al-Majid 
al-Fahd, a democracy activist and Sa'ada native, the 
government used a heavy hand to crush the uprising and actual 
casualty numbers are closer to 700 than the official count of 
approximately 300 (ref A).  After visiting the region, 
al-Fahd said that because of severe ROYG tactics, Sa'ada 
residents overwhelmingly support the rebels, although most 
remain unwilling to take up arms at this time.  Journalist 
Hamoud Munasser confirmed this impression, saying mass 
arrests in Sa'ada and its environs have also inflamed local 
sentiment against the ROYG. 
 
3. (C) Al-Fahd contended that the leaders' departure was 
likely the result of mediation efforts by Sheikh Abdullah 
al-Ahmar, leader of the region's Hashid tribal confederation 
and head of the opposition Islah party.  The ROYG initially 
excluded Al-Ahmar from policy issues related to Sa'ada, and 
many Islah members complained of being left out and 
uninformed of events during the conflict.  As the conflict 
threatened to widen, however, it appears the Sheikh was 
recruited to negotiate its end.  Al-Fahd noted that 
combatants from al-Shafa'a and Razamat come from segments of 
the Wa'ila tribe that follow the Zaydi Shi'a sect (while 
other parts of Wa'ila are Saudi influenced Salafis).  In Beni 
Ma'ad, however, government forces were fighting the entire 
Sahara tribe.  Munasser confirmed this news with reports that 
army reinforcements are now being deployed to the Beni Ma'ad 
region.  In Yemen's culture of tribal revenge, the 
involvement of tribes in the fighting does not bode well for 
a decisive end to the conflict.  News of a grenade attack 
March 25 outside the Ministry of Finance building in Sanaa 
suggests that while the major offensive may be over, 
unconventional attacks along the lines seen over the past two 
weeks may continue. 
 
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Rebellion "Going Tribal?" 
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4. (C) According to Al-Fahd, this round of fighting in Sa'ada 
marks a turning point for President Saleh.  It is the first 
time in his presidency that the ROYG has launched a full 
offensive against an entire tribe (the Sahara).  Previously, 
the al-Houthi rebellion was characterized as a military 
operation against religious zealots.  Official statements 
from Iran and from Ayatollah al-Sistani in Iraq condemned 
ROYG military operations as anti-Shi'a.  Al-Fahd, however, 
believes the ROYG security forces moved "quickly and 
brutally" in Sa'ada, to keep down contentious tribal groups 
in al-Jawf that were threatening to join al-Houthi en masse. 
 
5. (C) Comment:  Information on what is going on in Sa'ada 
has been hard to come by throughout this second al-Houthi 
rebellion.  ROYG Officials who are usually open with emboffs 
claim to be in the dark, travel to the region is very 
restricted and the media is banned from the area.  Al-Fahd is 
one of our few contacts that has been both in the area 
recently, and is willing to talk about it.  As a democracy 
advocate, however, his interests do not lie with the regime 
and he may have exaggerated the severity of the conflict. 
If, as he contends, the ROYG's response to the uprising has 
led to growing tensions between northern tribes and the ROYG, 
the conflict could take on new dimensions in the future.  End 
comment. 
Krajeski