US embassy cable - 02AMMAN3242

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003242 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPAL, ASEC, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS AWAIT PRESIDENT'S MIDDLE EAST 
STATEMENT, HOPE FOR U.S. PLAN, BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH 
 
 
Classified By: Amb. Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Jordanians, confused about the direction of U.S. 
Middle East policy, are nervously awaiting President Bush's 
Middle East policy statement, hoping (but doubting) that it 
will bring clarity and the prospect of genuine progress for 
the Palestinians.  Most Jordanians see U.S. engagement in the 
MEPP as the only way to break the current spiral of violence, 
although most are also highly suspicious of U.S. motives and 
doubt U.S. commitment to take hard decisions regarding 
Israel.  In the end, it is the concrete results of any new 
U.S. proposal -- not the words of the President's remarks -- 
to which Jordanians will look to measure American resolve to 
reach peace.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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WAITING TO EXHALE 
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2.  (C)  The withdrawal of Israeli forces from most of the 
West Bank in May, and the consequent reduction of daily 
Palestinian casualty and arrest figures, has reduced the 
level of tension in Jordan:  the loudest wedding season for 
the past two years has begun, and students are sitting for 
the annual end of secondary school "tawjihi" exams.  Even 
regular Israeli raids in the West Bank and Gaza have not 
entirely soured the sense that something is happening on the 
Middle East peace front.  Jordanians have been mildly 
encouraged as a procession of Middle Eastern leaders -- PM 
Sharon, King Abdullah, President Mubarak, PM Sharon again, 
and Saudi Prince Saud -- have visited the White House and 
given the President their views on where they think the 
Middle East should go next.  Statements by the President, the 
Secretary, and other senior U.S. officials that the President 
 
SIPDIS 
is weighing his options on next steps have heightened the 
sense that a new U.S. initiative is just around the corner. 
 
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U.S. POLICY CONFUSING... AND CONFUSED 
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3.  (C)  While our contacts are generally skeptical that the 
speech will provide new U.S. support for the Palestinians, 
there is no agreement on what it will mean for the region. 
In fact, there is a clear sense here -- heightened by local 
and Western press commentary -- that the U.S. has not yet 
settled on the next steps of its policy.  "The (U.S.) 
President says he supports a Palestinian state," one NGO 
leader told us recently, "but what kind of State?  Real? 
Provisional?  What are its borders?  What is its capital?" 
 
4.  (C)  Pointing to differing statements from various 
officials, many see a distinct split within the U.S. 
administration.  "When," a senior MFA official asked us late 
last week, "is the U.S. going to decide what its policy is." 
The lack of clarity in U.S. policy, according to one 
academic, has "left us (in the Middle East) without 
direction." 
 
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WHAT WILL BUSH SAY?  WILL HE BACK IT UP? 
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5.  (C)  Consequently, a wide variety of Embassy contacts and 
local editorial writers have focused their attention on what 
President Bush will (or should) say about the future of U.S. 
policy in the region.  "Most," said a senior Jordanian 
banker, "assume that U.S. policy will be biased toward 
Israel," especially following President Bush's recent 
statements that Sharon is a "man of peace," that the 
President is not prepared to offer a timetable for creation 
of a Palestinian state, and the President's persistent focus 
on Arafat's responsibility to act against Palestinian 
terrorists. 
 
6.  (C)  However, statements by the Secretary at the G-8 
meeting in Canada about the possibility of creating a 
"provisional" Palestinian state, and Western and Israeli 
press speculation that the U.S. will call for an end to 
Israeli settlement activity have raised hopes among some in 
the educated elite that the U.S. will set out a political 
plan that leads to a Palestinian state and asks Israel to 
take concrete actions. 
 
7.  (C)  The many nay sayers, however, doubt U.S. commitment 
to peace in the Middle East, and dismiss out of hand 
suggestions that the U.S. will try to force Israel to accept 
even minimal Palestinian political demands.  One Jordan 
University professor declared that, public statements aside, 
"no U.S. President has ever supported (creation of) a 
Palestinian state."  An always-cranky former Parliamentarian 
opined last week that any new U.S. proposal would be merely 
"a tool to keep Arab regimes in the War against Terrorism." 
In any case, he concluded, "the Zionist lobby and the 
Christian right" will prevent "any plan that Israel does not 
like" from being implemented. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C)  The bad news is that most Jordanians remain very 
skeptical about U.S. motives and U.S. commitment to use its 
position to deliver concrete Israeli concessions.  Those who 
doubt U.S. motives will see even a positive speech as a way 
to create motion in the peace process without real progress. 
A presidential statement that offers no concrete political 
gains for Palestinians and focuses on Palestinian 
responsibilities (to reform, fight terrorism, or choose a new 
leader) to the exclusion of needed Israeli actions could lead 
to another round of demonstrations and other expressions of 
public anger. 
 
9.  (C)  The good news is that most Jordanians -- even many 
of the nay sayers -- continue to see U.S. engagement as the 
only way to solve the Middle East crisis.  Consequently, 
there is intense attention focused on the President's 
statement, and more than a little heightening of expectations 
among those who hope for a U.S. role that offers more hope to 
the Palestinians.  For Jordanians, however, the test of the 
President's speech will not be the specific words he utters 
or the plan he presents, but whether the U.S. takes concrete 
actions to move forward on Palestinian political goals in 
parallel with moves to ensure Israel's security. 
 
Gnehm