US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI3086

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MASS, EAID, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: PMO CONFIRMS MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO NEPAL STILL 
CONDITIONAL 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 2951 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Contrary to reports sourced to the King of 
Nepal that India had reversed its suspension of military 
supplies, the PMO has confirmed to us press reports that 
India will only resume military assistance to Nepal in 
exchange for concrete progress towards restoration of 
democracy.  The PM's unexpected decision to meet with 
Gyanendra on April 23 suggests that the King said the right 
things about democracy in his April 22 meeting with the 
Indian Foreign Minister.  We expect to learn more about where 
the GOI stands on assistance conditionality after Foreign 
Secretary Saran returns to New Delhi late on April 25.  End 
 
SIPDIS 
Summary. 
 
Surprise Announcement 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) After a week of speculation on whether PM Manmohan 
Singh would even meet King Gyanendra at the Asian-African 
Summit in Jakarta (reftel), both the PM and Foreign Minister 
Natwar Singh met with the Nepalese monarch.  The meeting with 
the Foreign Minister appears to have been uneventful, and was 
followed by the standard MEA recitation of India's hope for 
the restoration of multi-party democracy.  Following a 
one-on-one meeting with the PM on April 23, Gyanendra made a 
surprise statement to the Indian press indicating that the 
Indian PM had promised to resume arms supplies to Nepal. 
When asked about the statement at a later press conference, 
the PM sidestepped the issue, saying only that "we will look 
at these things in the proper perspective." 
 
3.  (C) MEA sources seemed to be caught by surprise by the 
King's unqualified announcement.  MEA Under Secretary (Nepal) 
Manu Mahawar told us on April 25 that he had no information 
about any change of policy on India's suspension of military 
assistance.  Meanwhile, the Communists denounced the idea, 
calling the reported resumption of Indian arms supplies 
"wrong and unjustified," and requesting that the government 
consult with Parliament and clarify its position. 
 
GOI Sticking to Democracy Conditions 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Attempting to clear up the confusion over what 
exactly was promised, GOI sources on April 25 told the 
traveling press on the PM's plane back from Indonesia that 
Manmohan Singh had conditioned the resumption of arms on New 
Delhi's long-stated demands for lifting political 
restrictions, releasing detainees, and progress toward 
restoration of democratic institutions.  The GOI briefer 
noted that the King had overlooked the fact that the 
normalization of assistance was linked to a series of 
specific steps the palace had to take.  PMO Media Advisor 
Sanjaya Baru confirmed to PolCouns on April 25 that the press 
reports were accurate in describing a democratization quid 
pro quo for the restoration of Indian aid. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C) India appears to have turned a corner on its approach 
to the King from one of angry isolation to quid pro quos 
aimed at bringing Nepal back to the democratic path.  In this 
regard, the GOI approach appears to be converging with our 
own.  The fact that the PM decided to meet the King in 
Jakarta, and the MEA's announcement that it would not object 
to a rescheduled SAARC summit (after scrubbing the February 
meeting in part because of Gyanendra's actions) demonstrate 
India's desire to return to more normal relations with the 
monarch.  However, even as it recalculates its relation with 
Gyanendra, the GOI appears to be maintaining its line on the 
need for specific steps to justify a resumption of military 
aid.  On this, we expect to hear more about what the King 
promised the Indians in Jakarta after Foreign Secretary Saran 
returns from Indonesia late on April 25. 
BLAKE