US embassy cable - 05CAIRO3089

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 003089 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN JUDGES LAUNCH "INTIFADA", THREATEN TO 
SKIP ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified by Charge Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) Over 1000 Egyptian judges meeting under the auspices 
of the Alexandria Judges' Club launched in mid-April what one 
paper dubbed "the judges' intifada."  In their meeting, the 
assembled judges threatened to abstain from their supervisory 
role in the fall 2005 elections unless a new draft judiciary 
law, containing expanded guarantees of independence, is 
passed during the current parliamentary session.  The judges' 
defiant position poses a potentially serious dilemma for the 
GOE, which has clung to its system of judicial supervision of 
the elections as its key argument against foreign monitoring 
proposals.  Some of our contacts, and other observers, 
believe the judges' move has major implications for the 
near-term political reform outlook, but one senior 
(reformist) judge we spoke with was dismissive and described 
the push for a new law as a cloaked effort to get judges a 
pay raise.  We may have a clearer picture of the reformist 
judges' momentum and resonance after a national judges' 
organization meeting in to discuss next steps, which we 
understand is tentatively set to be held in Cairo on May 13. 
End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) International and domestic media gave significant 
coverage in the past week to an April 15 meeting in 
Alexandria at which over 1000 judges demanded the passage of 
a new judiciary law and threatened to abstain from their 
supervisory role in the fall 2005 elections.  The 
participating judges want a new judiciary law, a draft of 
which is currently before the parliament, to expand 
guarantees on their independence by reducing the ability of 
politicians to control their salaries and assignments, and 
also to more broadly define their supervisory role in 
elections.  With characteristic hyperbole, the weekly tabloid 
al-Osboa described the judges' meeting as the launch of a 
"judges' intifada." 
 
-------------------- 
An Insider's Readout 
-------------------- 
 
3. (C) Counselor Assem Abdel Gabbar (protect), an Egyptian 
Supreme Court judge who resides in Alexandria and took a 
leading role in the April 15 Alexandria Judges' Club congress 
in that city, recently shared his views with A/DCM on the 
club's declaration.  Abdel Gabbar said more than 1000 judges 
had attended the meeting (out of a total of approximately 
8000 judges nationwide), which was normally limited to 
members of the Alexandria club.  The other judges had come 
when they had heard the issue to be discussed, reflecting, 
Abdel Gabbar emphasized, the fact that the judges were "fed 
up."  He said "only two of the judges out of the one thousand 
attending" had expressed any opposition to the final demands. 
 He had received calls of support from judges from all over 
the country. 
 
4. (C) Abdel Gabbar said that the move reflected the boiling 
over of the judiciary's frustration at the interference of 
the executive in judicial matters.  He cited a 1986 effort by 
the judges to legislatively strengthen their independence 
which had been met with promises for action by the Government 
and then "sent into innumerable committees for study." 
Following the 2000 elections the judges had tried again to 
militate for judicial independence in terms of legislation 
clarifying their role in "monitoring" elections.  Again the 
government had promised to take steps and had simply made 
motions without taking any real action.  The judges' 
credibility was now on the line, Abdel Gabbar argued, stating 
that if they were to retain the the public's respect, they 
could not possibly certify another election plagued by the 
machinations of the ruling National Democratic Party and 
outright intimidation. 
 
5. (C) This was not an attack on the government or a 
"political" move, Abdel Gabbar argued.  The judges were 
reacting to years of frustration as they watched their role 
becoming increasingly circumscribed by the executive.  Abdel 
Gabbar said he had received a call from the Minister of 
Justice himself, after the club released its findings and the 
Minister had said the government intended to act on the 
judges demands.  However, Abdel Gabbar said, the Minister had 
suggested the formation of a committee to consider how to 
draft a new law.  This was transparently another ploy by the 
Government to put the judges off, he emphasized, but this 
time the judges would continue to press. 
 
6. (C) The next step would be a conference of judges at the 
national level, which Abdel Gabbar predicted would be held 
within 2-3 weeks.  (Note:  We subsequently heard that it is 
tentatively set for May 13, in Cairo.  End note.)  The 
government had to react favorably, Abdel Gabbar reasoned, and 
he was optimistic that their would be a favorable response. 
Participants at a politically-themed lunch in Alexandria 
(which included Abdel Gabbar) characterized the judges' move 
as the most significant crisis the government has faced in 
the recent reform wave.  Some speculated that the current 
atmosphere of openness had emboldened the judges but all 
agreed that the government was in a tight spot. 
 
---------------------------- 
Judicial Watchdog Optimistic 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Nasser Amin, director of the Arab Center for the 
Independence of the Judiciary and Legal Processes (ACIJLP), 
told us that he thought the judges are motivated by two 
separate but related issues.  One motive is simple 
self-interest:  the judges have long sought improved pay, 
benefits, and operational independence.  The second motive is 
their resurrection of a demand for greater independence from 
executive interference. 
 
8. (C) The judges' demands in this regard stretch back at 
least to 1986, according to Amin.  At a 1986 judicial 
conference attended by Mubarak, judges demanded the lifting 
of the state of emergency, the elimination of emergency 
courts, and full judicial independence.  According to Amin, 
this move so annoyed the President that the GOE subsequently 
engineered the election of a pro-GOE judge to the leadership 
of the Judges Club, which in turn ensured the less vocal 
tendency that has characterized Egyptian judges for most of 
the past two decades.  The latest Judges' Club election, 
however, put Zakariya Abdel Aziz (one of the leaders of the 
1986 effort) in charge, and thus resurrected the 1986 demands. 
 
9. (C) Amin's ACIJLP issued a statement hailing the decisions 
taken by the Alexandria Judges Club and endorsed the call for 
revisions to the laws governing the judiciary, full 
independence for the judiciary from executive interference, 
and a revision of the political rights law to ensure 
"judicial supervision of the electoral process from A to Z." 
The judges now seek full and total independence, according to 
Amin, for the judiciary and the election (instead of 
executive appointment) of the Higher Council of the 
Judiciary.  He estimated that approximately one fifth of all 
judges strongly support this platform, and that their numbers 
are sufficient for them to have an impact if they decide to 
follow through on their threat to boycott the elections. 
 
10. (C) Asked about the timing of the judges' initiative, 
Amin argued that "there are pressures from everywhere and the 
mood is one of change.  The political parties are demanding 
it, civil society is demanding it, and so are the 
journalists, lawyers, and also the judges."  Amin added that 
the judges feel that the GOE "needs" them to bolster the 
credibility of the elections and will therefore be likely to 
try to placate them, if not directly address all of their 
demands. 
 
----------------------------- 
A Less Sanguine Judicial View 
----------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Judge Nabil Omran (protect), a Vice President of the 
Court of Cassation with U.S. training and reformist 
instincts, gave poloff a less sanguine view of the April 15 
judges' meeting and its implications.  The judges' principal 
goal, Omran argued, was to secure a salary raise, a critical 
clause being folded into the draft judiciary new law.  The 
judges' collective pride precluded the overt disclosure of 
this demand, Omran asserted.  He described talk of the judges 
boycotting the elections as an empty threat. 
 
------------------------ 
Other Reformists Bullish 
------------------------ 
 
12. (C) Omran's skepticism notwithstanding, many of our 
reform-inclined contacts are enthusiastic about the judges' 
move and its implications.  Hisham Kassem, publisher and 
senior member of the opposition Ghad Party, described the 
activism of the judges as a welcome step toward "rebuilding 
the instruments of government."  According to Kassem, the 
Mubarak government has dramatically weakened "the four 
estates" and there is now a pressing need to rebuild these 
institutions."  Kassem observed that the judges' 
assertiveness could play a key role in supporting the 
establishment of true "civilian rule" in Egypt. 
 
13. (C) Hossam Baghat, director of the Egyptian Initiative 
for Personal Rights, a respected human rights NGO, told us 
that the recent statements by the judges signaled a political 
development that could eclipse the importance of Mubarak's 
proposal to allow multi-party presidential elections.  Baghat 
believes that the judges are prepared to push for full 
judicial control of the elections process, both inside and 
outside of the polls, as well as full (read financial) 
independence of the judiciary.  According to Baghat, the 
judges first signaled their willingness to abandon the 
quietism of their civil law tradition in March 2003 when they 
issued a statement linking the U.S. invasion of Iraq directly 
to the lack of freedom in that country. 
 
----------------- 
A Word of Caution 
----------------- 
 
14. (C) According to Hossam Baghat, the USG needs to be 
careful not to take steps that would allow the GOE to tar the 
judges with charges of collaborating with foreign influences. 
 He suggested that the USG could most constructively help the 
judges' movement through indirect support to the 
International Commission of Jurists, based in Geneva, which 
is interested in deepening its engagement with Egypt.  In 
addition, said Baghat, the USG could encourage the GOE to 
permit a visit to Egypt by Leandro Despouy, the Special 
Rapporteur for the Independence of Judges and Lawyers of the 
U.N. Commission on Human Rights.  According to Baghat, 
Despouy, an Argentinean, has a long-pending request with the 
GOE to visit. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
15. (C) The judges' move threatens to put the GOE in a very 
awkward position.  Senior GOE officials have steadfastly 
refused all suggestions of foreign election monitoring, 
insisting that its "unique" system of judicial electoral 
supervision was above reproach.  Should the judges themselves 
criticize this process, and sustain their threats to abstain 
from participating, the GOE's claims of electoral credibility 
would be seriously undermined.  We will be watching with 
interest the results of the general assembly of the national 
Egyptian judges' organization, which we understand is 
tentatively set for May 13.  This meeting should give us a 
better idea whether the Alexandria judges' demands have 
momentum and national resonance.  Post recommends that, if 
asked, we respond with general statements about the USG 
respect and support for the independence of the judiciary. 
In our private discussions with the GOE, we will urge them to 
address the judges' concerns in a way that supports a reform 
process led by Egyptians for Egyptians.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
CORBIN