US embassy cable - 05QUITO895

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000895 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ASEC, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: POLITICAL SITUATION UPDATE 
 
REF: A. QUITO 885 
 
     B. QUITO 879 
     C. QUITO 872 
     D. QUITO 871 
     E. QUITO 870 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  On April 22, the new Minister of Defense 
Anibal Solon Espinosa named a new military high command.  The 
Embassy has begun outreach to the new government's Cabinet, 
though not at the Ambassadorial level.  Congress is expected 
to reconvene on April 26, possibly in Guayaquil.  There was a 
small protest at the palace the evening of April 21, as well 
as protests on April 22 at the Brazilian Ambassador's 
residence, but no violence.  End Summary. 
 
Security 
-------- 
 
2.  (U) There was a protest against the Congress (of 
approximately 100 demonstrators) at the Presidential palace 
the evening of April 21.  Though vocal, the protest against 
Congress was peaceful and ended without incident.  There is a 
group of protesters (approximately 70) at the Brazilian 
Ambassador's residence blocking the road.  Radicals are 
rumored to be waiting for Congress to reconvene to resume 
protests.  Country clearances will be reviewed on a case by 
case basis.  Peace Corps has ceased its stand-fast; 
approximately 20 PCVs are scheduled to travel to Quito 
beginning April 25. 
 
Ex-Government 
------------- 
 
3.  (U) While trying to leave the country on a flight to 
Miami from the Quito airport, former Presidential Secretary 
Carlos Polit was prevented from flying by an angry group, 
which included ex-VP Blasco Penaherrera who was departing to 
defend the new GOE before the OAS.  Former Minister of Trade 
Ivonne Baki has not been allowed to re-enter her former 
offices to retrieve her passports.  Other officials 
associated with the former government have requested visas, 
which we are reviewing case by case. 
 
Congress 
-------- 
 
4.  (C) Congress plans to reconvene on April 26, possibly in 
Guayaquil to prevent security concerns in Quito.  We are 
hearing from PRIAN contacts that they will try to call for 
new elections.  The government hopes to pass judicial reforms 
with the support of the majority which dismissed Gutierrez. 
 
Military/Police Actions 
----------------------- 
 
5.  (C) After requesting a list of all active duty flag 
officers, new Minister of Defense General Anibal Solon 
Espinosa replaced the military's high command on April 22. 
The new Commander's for the Ecuadorian High Command as of 
April 22 are:  Vice Admiral Manuel Elias Zapater Ramos, CHOD; 
Lieutenant General Cesar Ubillus Verga, Army Commander; Rear 
Admiral Hector Germanico Holguin Darquea, Navy Commander; 
Brigadier General Edmundo Baquero Madera, Air Force Commander. 
 
6.  (SBU) A good Embassy contact, General Jose Antonio 
Vinueza Jarrin, was named the new police commander on April 
22.  He is a former chief of anti-narcotic affairs and 
personnel. 
 
Embassy Actions 
--------------- 
 
7.  (C) Foreign Minister Antonio Parra briefed OAS member 
diplomatic missions (including DCM) late April 22 on the 
official GOE explanation for Gutierrez' removal.  Blame 
rested with Gutierrez, he said, who triggered destabilizing 
events by revamping the Supreme Court last December.  In 
defending GOE actions, Parra repeatedly made references to 
Bolivia, implying that Bolivia set the precedent.  Parra said 
that a group of distinguished jurists from Ecuador would make 
Ecuador's case on April 22 before the OAS Permanent Council. 
They are:  constitutional expert Gil Barragan Romero; former 
FMs Edgar Teran and Mario Aleman; and former Vice President 
Blasco Penaherrera. 
 
8.  (C) In a meeting with PolChief on April 21, new Minister 
of Government Mauricio Gandara expressed his concern that the 
OAS and USG recognize the legitimacy of the new government to 
ensure stability.  Subsecretary of Government Juan Carlos 
Guzman was also present at the meeting.  PolChief also met 
with Presidential Administration Secretary Luis Herreria and 
Presidential Secretary General Carlos Munoz on April 22. 
(Septel) 
 
9.  (C) EconChief spoke with Central Bank President Mauricio 
Pareja on April 22.  Pareja expressed his deep concern over 
statements made by the new Minister of Finance Rafael Correa. 
 Correa made public statements on April 21 that foreign debt 
needed to be renegotiated, that Ecuador's oil revenue needed 
to be spent on social programs, that Ecuador would be 
completely sovereign in its relations with the IMF, and that 
any free trade agreement would be submitted to a referendum 
(where it would most likely be voted down.)  Pareja said he 
already noted some capital flight on April 21, and there 
would be more.  Pareja said if Correa continued making 
similar public statements, there could be serious financial 
damage over the next week. 
 
Third Party Opinions 
-------------------- 
 
10.  (SBU) AID spoke with NGO representatives Simon Jaramillo 
of Citizen Participation and Cornelio Marchan of Esquel 
Foundation on April 21 who were pleased with recent events, 
but differed on early elections. 
 
11.  (SBU) Guadalupe Mantilla, owner of Quito's daily of 
record, El Comercio newspaper, expressed to the PAO concerns 
about the constitutionality of Gutierrez' departure and the 
impact on the country's image abroad.  If Ecuador wants 
foreign investment, she said, people cannot continue to 
manipulate the Constitution.  Mantilla believed Palacio was 
weak and would not be able to govern.  In her opinion, 
Congress should find a way to dissolve itself and hold new 
elections.  Those attacking the Congress and Ministry of 
Social Welfare were not the same people who filled the 
marches, she said; they were thugs led by the left-wing MPD 
party and radical student groups.  She approved of the 
Embassy's concerned, but cautious public profile. 
 
Business Community 
------------------ 
 
12.  (SBU) FCS called AmCham leaders on April 21 who did not 
view the new Cabinet members favorably.  They concurred that 
the new government was very nationalist and center left. 
They believed that this grouping could target USG interests 
in retribution for past USG support for Gutierrez. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
13.  (C) The Embassy will be taking the following next steps: 
 
--AMB will hold a town hall meeting on April 25. 
 
--DAO will reach out to the new military command. 
 
--POL will continue to meet with members of the new Cabinet. 
POL will report further bio info on new Ministers. 
 
--AID will continue outreach to NGOs and contractors. 
 
--AID will lead a Mission effort to plan future programs to 
strengthen Ecuador's broken democracy. 
 
--FCS will continue outreach to the US and Ecuadorian 
business communities. 
 
--RSO continues to review security measures. 
KENNEY