US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS1593

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, EAID, KPAL, IZ, LE, ZI, CG, SU, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: COMMISSION AND COUNCIL EXPECT SHORT GAERC MEETING 
ON APRIL 25 
 
REF: A. STATE 72185 
 
     B. USEU BRUSSELS 1550 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 (B/D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1. (U) A shorter than normal GAERC on April 25 is unlikely to 
take any significant decisions on external relations topics. 
On the Middle East, the GAERC is exepcted to issue 
Conclusions on the MEPP, Iraq and Lebanon.  Africa discussion 
will focus on the Great Lakes, with any new decisions on 
Zimbabwe or Sudan likely to await further assessment of these 
situations.  A discussion on Russia should focus almost 
entirely on preparations for the May 10 EU-Russia Summit. 
EUFMs are unlikely to have much substantive discussion on the 
Balkans, although the first meeting of an ad hoc Task Force 
on Croatia and its cooperation with the ICTY will meet in the 
GAERC margins on April 25 (septel).  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) In response to Ref A points, Commission and Council 
sources told us they expect a rather short discussion on 
external relations topics at the April 25 General Affairs and 
External Relations Council (GAERC) in Luxembourg.  Media 
attention will be more focused on the signing ceremony that 
afternoon of the EU Accession Treaty for Romania and 
Bulgaria, and EU FMs will end the GAERC early to participate 
in that event.  Much of the morning GAERC discussion will 
also be taken up by discussion of the Luxembourg Presidency's 
most recent proposals on the framework for negotiating the 
EU's 2007-2013 budget, despite the fact that no serious 
budget negotiations will begin until after the May 5 UK 
elections and May 29 French referendum. 
 
MIDDLE EAST TOPICS 
------------------ 
3. (SBU) GAERC discussions on the MEPP and Iraq should follow 
familiar lines, although a Council source expressed some 
questions about how the GAERC might respond to reports that 
the Israeli Defense Minister has proposed a delay of the Gaza 
withdrawal.  On Iraq, the Luxembourg Presidency plans to 
brief ministers on the modalities for the upcoming 
international conference, following the visit of U.S. Iraq 
Coordinator Amb. Jones to Brussels on April 21, but wants to 
avoid negotiating details of the conference with the 25 
member states. 
 
4. (C) On Lebanon, External Relations (RELEX) Commissioner 
Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet told us the EU would reiterate its 
earlier readiness to assist with electoral preparations. 
Beyond that, our contact said the April 16 Gymnich discussion 
on Lebanon established a strong consensus that the EU should 
be prepared to step in quickly to support a new government 
post-elections.  The Commissioner returned from the Gymnich 
eager to act on this view and has asked RELEX staff to begin 
preparations for a technical assessment mission even before 
the elections are held, so that the EU can respond "faster 
than we usually do." 
 
AFRICA 
------ 
5. (C)  Africa discussions at the GAERC will focus largely on 
the Great Lakes.  The EU remains concerned DR Congo's draft 
constitution does not contain sufficient balance of powers to 
ensure democratic governance.  The "winner takes all" system 
could be a catalyst for post-election violence, since losers 
will have no incentive to support the new government. 
Furthermore, it will generate another autocratic regime on 
the continent.  Another area of concern is the slow pace of 
the DRC's security sector reform.  The EU is pleased with 
developments relating to MONUC and feels that AU peacekeepers 
will not be necessary if an integrated Congolese force can 
help MONUC ensure stability.  High Rep Solana and 
Commissioner Michel will visit Kinshasa Apirl 29 to press 
these points. 
 
6. (C) A Commission source said the UK was pressing for the 
EU to respond to developments in Zimbabwe, but other member 
states were not so ready to react.  The EU is still assessing 
the impact of Zimbabwe's election; only at a later GAERC are 
they likely to discuss possible measures (such as expanding 
the travel ban list).  On Sudan, the EU shares our concern 
about the deteriorating food situation.  They are still 
examining the technical aspects of expanding the AU mission. 
 
RUSSIA 
------ 
7. (C) Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet said the GAERC discussion on 
Russia would focus entirely on the EU-Russia Summit, and the 
Summit agenda should be focused on agreements over the four 
"common spaces."  The Commission is "still optimistic" that 
all four can be agreed by the Summit, although our source 
acknowledged this would only be possible by agreeing language 
that leaves some critical issues for further negotiations. 
It is doubtful agreement will be found by May 10 on the 
dispute over Siberian overflights, or on procedures for a 
readmission agreement on illegal migrants.  The Commission 
expects that other issues of concern with Russia such as 
human rights, or rule of law and the business environment 
(Yukos or BP cases) would only be raised on the margins. 
 
OTHER ISSUES 
------------ 
8. (SBU) The Commission on April 20 proposed a package of 
measures, drawing on the post-tsunami experience in December, 
on how the EU can improve its disaster response.  The 
Commission expects member states to ask for more time to 
review the proposals, and serious debate on these topics will 
come only in May.  On the Balkans, the Commission expects the 
GAERC to easily agree on it's recommendation that the EU 
begin negotiations on a Stabilization and Association 
Agreement with Serbia and Montenegro later this year.  GAERC 
Conclusions should also be issued on recent developments in 
Macedonia (see REF B for details). 
 
MCKINLEY 
.