US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN714

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000714 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, AM 
SUBJECT: SARGSIAN: KING-MAKER OR WOULD-BE KING? 
 
 
Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsian, frequently cited 
as a potential presidential candidate in 2008, has been 
increasing his public visibility in recent months.  President 
Kocharian has refrained from annointing any particular ally 
as his chosen successor, but his close relationship with 
Sargsian has fueled persistent rumors that Sargsian is the 
only genuine contender.  The opposition still has no clear 
leader, and consequently no clear candidate as a successor 
for Kocharian--a situation they will need to remedy soon if 
they expect to field a credible candidate in time for the 
election.  We believe that, contrary to opposition 
accusations, Kocharian has no plans to circumvent the 
constitution and run for a third term, and that Sargsian is 
more likely to opt to retain his role as king-maker than he 
is to go after the presidency himelf.  End Summary. 
 
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SARGSIAN'S SHIFTING PUBLIC IMAGE 
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2. (S) Over the past year we have noted a deliberate shift in 
Sargsian's public image (although we believe that press 
reports that he's moving to a "cuddlier" persona are 
distinctly exaggerated) -- he has increased his public 
appearances for non-military events, advocated the 
possibility of GOAM "concessions" in widely-publicized 
parliamentary hearings on Nagorno-Karabakh, and has been 
assiduously courting Western ambassadors.  (Note:  Armenian 
MOD General Aghabekian even recently asked a member of the 
embassy staff off-line whether he thought the U.S. Ambassador 
would support a Sargsian presidential bid.  End Note.) 
Nonetheless, we believe that Sargsian is more likely to 
continue in some variation of his current role, remaining at 
the center of critical policy decisions and in control of 
both the military and significant economic resources. 
Sargsian's predecessor as head of the National Security 
Service (NSS) and his former boss, David Shahnazarian, told 
us recently that he believed that Sargsian preferred being 
slightly out of the limelight, and was not seriously 
interested in the presidency. 
 
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IF NOT SARGSIAN, THEN WHO? 
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3. (C) Among the current members of the governing coalition, 
Speaker of the National Assembly Artur Baghdasarian and 
Minister of Justice David Harutunyan are the most frequently 
named as possible presidential candidates, and their 
potential personal ambitions are often cited as the reasons 
for their frequent policy clashes.  Baghdasarian, too young 
to run for president in 2003, has been burnishing his public 
image and working hard to make himself "presidential" -- 
largely successfully.  Baghdasarian is one of the top names 
on any pundit's list of 2008 presidential hopefuls, and in 
the absence of a single opposition candidate, may well be the 
only potential candidate with a high enough profile to run a 
credible campaign. 
 
4. (C) Although there are hints that the opposition has begun 
to start thinking strategically about both the 2007 
parliamentary and the 2008 presidential elections, there 
seems to be little concrete progress toward building the 
stable alliances and articulating the alternative programs 
that would be needed for electoral success. 
 
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NO EVIDENCE THAT KOCHARIAN WILL RUN AGAIN 
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5. (C) Although the opposition press continually claims that 
Kocharian is planning to circumvent the constitution and run 
for a third term in 2008, we see no evidence that would point 
to that conclusion, and the opposition, at least thus far, 
has supported none of its charges with supporting evidence or 
facts. 
 
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COMMENT: SARGSIAN ENJOYS THE SHADOWS 
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6. (S) Sargsian's current position affords him control of 
significant off-budget economic assets, and he does not 
appear to us to have (or wish to acquire) a politician's 
temperament.  Despite his well-earned reputation as a serious 
gambler, we believe that he's more likely to continue to play 
his current hand as power behind the throne rather than go 
after the throne (and the public scrutiny that would go along 
with it). 
EVANS