US embassy cable - 05PARIS2733

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002733 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA - 
LITHUANIA - REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGY MIDDLE EAST - ELECTIONS IN 
SAUDI ARABIA - DEMOCRATIZATION 
PARIS - FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA - LITHUANIA - REGIONAL GEO- 
STRATEGY 
2. MIDDLE EAST - ELECTIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA - DEMOCRATIZATION 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
A VARIETY OF SUBJECTS ARE COVERED IN TODAY'S FRONT PAGES, 
EDITORIALS AND REPORTS, WITH THE EU CONSTITUTION STILL VERY 
MUCH IN THE LEAD. RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY L'EXPRESS PUBLISHES 
THE LATEST POLL ON VOTER INTENTION, WHICH SHOWS THAT IF THE 
REFERENDUM WERE CALLED THIS SUNDAY, 58 PERCENT WOULD VOTE 
`NO,' UP 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS FROM A SIMILAR POLL IT CONDUCTED 
TEN DAYS AGO; THE `YES' DROPS FROM 47 PERCENT TO 42 PERCENT. 
THE SAME POLL INDICATES THAT CHIRAC ALSO LOST 2 PERCENTAGE 
POINTS IN SUPPORT, FROM 50 TO 48 PERCENT; PM RAFFARIN DROPPED 
THREE PERCENTAGE POINTS, FROM 31 TO 28 PERCENT. 
 
IN AN INTERVIEW IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX, THE PRESIDENT OF THE 
EUROPEAN UNION, JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER, CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REMARKS 
FROM FRANCE'S EUROPEAN PARTNERS AND SAYS: "EUROPE NEEDS 
FRANCE. A `NO' VOTE WOULD LEAD FRANCE TO LOSE SOME OF ITS 
INFLUENCE. THE FRENCH ARE FORGETTING THAT FRANCE IS PERCEIVED 
AS A MODEL. IF THE MODEL IS DISAPPOINTING, THEN THE FEELING OF 
BITTERNESS IS THAT MUCH DEEPER." IN REGIONAL LES DERNIERES 
NOUVELLES D'ALSACE, JEAN-CLAUDE KIEFER PENS AN EDITORIAL 
TITLED "FRENCH AND EUROPEAN CRISIS." "EUROPE ALSO CONTRIBUTES 
TO THE PREVAILING FUNK. IT IS TRUE, EUROPE NEEDS SERIOUSLY TO 
BE SHAKEN UP, WHICH ONLY THE CONSTITUTION. WILL ALLOW. EXCUSE 
MY FRENCH, BUT IT REALLY IS TIME TO PUT SOME ORDER IN THIS 
PIGPEN, PROVIDED WE GIVE OURSELVES THE PROPER TOOLS. BUT NOT 
BY SAYING `NO' TO THE CONSTITUTION. NOT BY THROWING THE BABY 
OUT WITH THE BATH WATER." 
 
SECRETARY RICE'S VISIT TO LITHUANIA IS NOTED IN LE FIGARO AND 
 
SIPDIS 
HER COMMENTS ON BELARUS REPORTED, WHILE IN A SEPARATE REPORT 
LAURE MANDEVILLE ANALYZES THE REGIONAL POWER PLAY IN FORMER 
SOVIET UNION STATES, INCLUDING IN CONNECTION TO THE GUAAM 
SUMMIT. (SEE PART C) 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES AN EDITORIAL COMMENTARY TO 
YESTERDAY'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH PATRICK 
SABATIER CHARACTERIZES AS "A DESERT, BOTH GEOGRAPHICALLY AND 
DEMOCRATICALLY SPEAKING." (SEE PART C) 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
SECRETARY RICE TO RUSSIA - LITHUANIA - REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGY 
 
SIPDIS 
 
"RICE DREAMING OF A `REVOLUTION IN BELARUS'" 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/22): "NO SOONER HER VISIT OVER 
IN RUSSIA, WHERE SECRETARY RICE TRIED TO CONVINCE PUTIN THAT 
THE U.S. WAS NOT TRYING TO `WEAKEN RUSSIA,' THE SECRETARY 
`PICKED' ON BELARUS, SAYING THAT `THE TIME FOR CHANGE HAD 
COME.' AND THAT LUKASHENKO'S REGIME WAS `EUROPE'S LAST 
DICTATORSHIP.' SECRETARY RICE WENT EVEN FURTHER AND MET WITH 
BELARUS OPPOSITION MEMBERS, WHOSE COURAGE SHE SAID SHE 
ADMIRED. IF BELARUS WERE TO FALL INTO THE `ORANGE' CAMP, IT 
WOULD BE A GEO-STRATEGIC CATASTROPHE FOR MOSCOW, WHICH COULD 
TRIGGER AN INTERNAL RUSSIAN UPSET. PRESIDENT BUSH HAS JUST 
SIGNED A `LAW FOR DEMOCRACY' WHICH ALLOWS WASHINGTON'S 
FINANCING OF NGOS TASKED WITH DEMOCRATIZING BELARUS." 
 
"STRUCTURE OF NEW INDEPENDENT STATES FALLING APART" 
LAURE MANDEVILLE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/22): "SINCE 
THE `ORANGE REVOLUTION' IN UKRAINE, A GEO-STRATEGIC EARTHQUAKE 
IS SHAKING THE FORMER SOVIET UNION, RESHAPING THE AREA TO THE 
DETRIMENT OF RUSSIA'S POSITIONING. PROOF LIES IN THE RECENT 
INTEREST FOR THE GUAAM SUMMIT. BEHIND THE SUMMIT'S AVOWED 
PURPOSE, LIES ANOTHER MORE DISCREET PROJECT FOR POLITICAL AND 
MILITARY COOPERATION. ONE OTHER TOPIC ON THE AGENDA IS THE 
DESIRE TO TURN THE REGION OF THE BLACK SEA INTO `A BASIN FOR 
DEMOCRACY.' THE AMERICANS, AS THE INFORMAL GODPARENTS OF THE 
ORGANIZATION, ARE VERY MUCH PRESENT BEHIND THE SCENE. THE 
CHAIN REACTION VELVET REVOLUTIONS IN THE REGION WORK IN FAVOR 
OF WASHINGTON'S AMBITIONS IN EURASIA. EVEN IF IT WOULD BE 
GOING TOO FAR TO SAY THAT THESE COUNTRIES ARE ONLY PUPPETS IN 
WASHINGTON'S HANDS. MEANWHILE, FACED WITH THIS UNPRECEDENTED 
GEO-STRATEGIC REBELLION IN WHAT RUSSIA CONSIDERS TO BE ITS 
HOME GROUND, MOSCOW IS AT A COMPLETE LOSS. THE NIS, BUILT ON 
THE RUINS ON THE FORMER SOVIET UNION IS, FOR ALL INTENTS AND 
PURPOSES, CLINICALLY DEAD." 
 
MIDDLE EAST - ELECTIONS IN SAUDI ARABIA - DEMOCRATIZATION 
 
"OASIS" 
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (04/22): 
"GEOGRAPHICALLY AND DEMOCRATICALLY SPEAKING, SAUDI ARABIA IS A 
DESERT. AFTER 9/11, THE COUNTRY WAS REVEALED TO BE A NEST FOR 
GLOBAL ISLAMIC TERRORISM, AS SYMBOLIZED BY BIN LADEN. IN THIS 
CONTEXT, A SECRET BALLOT ELECTION IS A REMARKABLE EVENT., EVEN 
IF THE IMPACT WILL BE LIMITED, BECAUSE WOMEN WERE EXCLUDED 
FROM IT. THE KINGDOM HAS IN FACT EMBARKED ON A COSMETIC 
REFORM, MORE THAN ON DEMOCRATIZATION. THE ROYAL FAMILY HAS 
FINALLY UNDERSTOOD THE DEADLY THREAT OF DOING NOTHING. THE 
U.S., ITS TRADITIONAL ALLY, HAS MADE THE ISSUE OF 
DEMOCRATIZING THE MIDDLE EAST AN IMPERATIVE FOR SECURITY. 
SAUDI ARABIA'S CAUTIOUS ELECTORAL STEP GOES HAND IN HAND WITH 
A FAULTLESS OPERATION OF REPRISAL AGAINST ISLAMIC TERRORISTS 
WHO WANT TO TOPPLE A REGIME, WHICH IN THEIR EYES, IS TOO PRO- 
WEST. YET THOSE WHO ARE WINNING THE ELECTION ARE ISLAMIC 
CANDIDATES. THIS POLITICAL ISLAMISM IS ALSO FEEDING ON A 
REJECTION OF THE WEST AND ITS INFLUENCE. WHETHER TERRORIST OR 
POLITICAL, THE ISLAMIC MOVEMENT, IN SAUDI ARABIA AS IN OTHER 
ARAB COUNTRIES, SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE TO THE 
PRESENT REGIME. THIS IS THE REAL CHALLENGE FACING WHAT SOME 
HAVE BEEN CALLING THE `ARAB SPRING.' IT CAN LEAD TO AN OASIS 
OF DEMOCRACY OR A SEASON IN HELL, LIKE IN ALGERIA." WOLFF