US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA3842

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 003842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CO 
SUBJECT: DECLINING OFFICIALIST LIBERAL PARTY LIKELY TO PIN 
FUTURE ON CESAR GAVIRIA 
 
REF: A. BOGOTA 2216 
 
     B. 04 BOGOTA 11705 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The Officialist Liberal Party (PLC), 
Colombia's largest and oldest, has been declining nationally. 
 Several dozen Congressional "dissident" Liberals are set to 
leave the party and formalize a new political movement, 
likely to be called Apertura Liberal (Liberal Opening), which 
plans to run its own list of candidates for Congress and 
support President Uribe for reelection in 2006.  Former VP 
and Finance Minister Juan Manuel Santos, a disaffected 
Liberal leader, accepted a role as President Uribe's point 
man on reelection.  The majority of party members, including 
the current PLC President Juan Cristo, believe that the only 
way to reinvigorate the PLC is to make former President Cesar 
Gaviria its unifying leader at the June party convention. 
After receiving the public backing of several dozen PLC 
members of Congress, Gaviria broke his silence on April 12 
and indicated a desire to run the party.  While Gaviria and 
former President Alfonso Lopez have publicly opposed Uribe's 
reelection, the President continues to be the unchallenged 
front-runner for 2006.  Provided reelection is not struck 
down by the Constitutional Court, the PLC has little chance 
of defeating Uribe.  End Summary. 
 
PLC's Evolving Numbers 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Colombia's oldest party, the Officialist Liberal 
(PLC), controls the largest number of governorships and 
departmental assemblies (roughly half of each).  At the start 
of the current Congress in 2002 it held 29 (of 102) Senate 
seats and 49 (of 166) House seats.  However, a move to 
sanction nine Senators in November (Ref B) reduced PLC Senate 
representation to 20.  Soon-to-be-completed negotiations to 
form a new dissident Liberal umbrella party for the 2006 
elections will reduce the PLC numbers to 11 in the Senate and 
approximately 20 in the House.  The new party, tentatively 
called Apertura Liberal (AL), plans to support President 
Uribe (himself a former PLC member) for reelection and run 
unified lists for Congress. 
 
Convention and Presidential Nominee 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) The PLC is laying the groundwork for its national 
convention to be held in June.  Items for the convention 
include selection of a new PLC head, development of a formal 
platform, and ground rules for Congressional candidate 
selection and the party's presidential primary.  At present, 
a ten-person Executive Committee runs the PLC, with a 
rotating (six month term) presidency.  Leading PLC contacts, 
including current head and Senator Juan Fernando Cristo, 
favor abolition of the Executive Committee and establishment 
of a single party leader post.  The PLC's nationwide 
presidential primary is likely to take place in March 2006, 
and potential candidates include 2002 nominee Horacio Serpa, 
former Bogota Mayor Enrique Penalosa, and Senators Rafael 
Pardo and Rodrigo Rivera (Ref A).  However, senior party 
officials tell us that Serpa will not enter the race if 
reelection is ruled constitutional, and Uribe can run. 
 
The ex-Presidents 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) Four of the five living ex-Presidents are PLC 
members.  Of the four PLC, only Julio Cesar Turbay has been 
publicly supportive of reelection for President Uribe.  In 
late March, Alfonso Lopez Michelson, the elder statesman of 
the group, surprised many observers with a strong public 
stance against Uribe's reelection.  However, many pundits 
wrote off the octogenarian Lopez's remarks, published in an 
interview in leading daily El Tiempo, as rambling and 
mean-spirited.  Ernesto Samper, generally viewed with disdain 
by the public for his narco-financing scandal, has also 
criticized reelection. 
 
5.  (C) Early in the Uribe Administration, then-OAS SYG Cesar 
Gaviria showed signs of affinity and cooperation with the 
President.  However, in recent months Gaviria has become more 
critical, staking out a position against reelection and in 
favor of the 1991 Constitution.  Pundits have attributed the 
change to three factors.  First, President Uribe spoke 
negatively about the role of political parties when 
addressing an OAS-sponsored forum on strengthening parties in 
Cartagena in November 2003 (Gaviria presided over the forum). 
 Subsequently, in a speech in Miami in late 2004, Uribe 
criticized the M-19 guerrilla amnesty, which occurred under 
Gaviria's watch.  Third, Uribe launched a series of 
criticisms of Colombia's 1991 Constitution, the crown jewel 
of the Gaviria Presidency. 
 
6.  (C) In a recent conversation with PolCouns, Gaviria spoke 
highly of Uribe and insisted that he remains in constant 
touch with Casa Narino (the Presidential Palace).  Defending 
the 1991 Constitution, he said he was opposed in principle to 
reelection but assumed it would pass the Constitutional 
Court.  He underscored that Uribe had to be "generous" with 
pending reelection implementing legislation.  The 
Constitutional Court had to be convinced that others would 
not be disadvantaged or that it did not create a system 
stacked in Uribe's favor. 
 
7.  (C) However, Gaviria was critical of Uribe's style of 
government, noting the Administration's lack of depth, with 
few key advisors.  The idea that one man (i.e. Peace 
Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo) was conducting the entire 
peace process was "unbelievable."  Gaviria also charged that 
Uribe has damaged political parties in Colombia.  We will end 
up like Venezuela if he is not careful, said Gaviria. 
 
8.  (U) On April 11, several dozen PLC members of Congress 
openly announced their support for Gaviria as sole party head 
(and for abolishing the Executive Committee and rotating 
presidency).  Gaviria broke his silence the following day and 
expressed interest in the post.  In a radio interview, 
Gaviria disassociated himself from the "neoliberal" label, 
called for the PLC to back a "Colombian version of social 
democracy," and strongly defended the 1991 Constitution. 
While Horacio Serpa, the PLC's 2002 presidential candidate, 
called for a "democratic" party leader selection process and 
noted his ideological (Serpa leans farther left) differences 
with Gaviria, former Prosecutor General Alfonso Gomez Mendez, 
a prominent Serpa backer, announced he was open to the 
Gaviria option.  Ernesto Samper, in a April 17 interview in 
El Tiempo, welcomed a Gaviria PLC presidency provided the 
party rank and file vote in such a fashion.  However, Samper 
said he would stand with Serpa if the latter continued to 
resist Gaviria as PLC head. 
 
Juan Manuel Santos Steps Back Into Political Spotlight 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
9.  (C) Leading Liberal figure Juan Manuel Santos, Vice 
President under Gaviria and Finance Minister under Andres 
Pastrana (a Conservative), recently defected from the PLC. 
In a conversation with Embassy on April 7, Santos attributed 
his move to two factors.  First, he lamented polarization 
within the PLC and the radicalization of its platform.  He 
criticized the PLC for allowing leftist elements (led by 
Senator Piedad Cordoba) to dominate internal debate.  A 
strong proponent of free trade and market opening, Santos 
felt he no longer fit in the PLC.  Second, Santos welcomed 
the formation of Apertura Liberal, whose members included 
most of Santos' political allies and former colleagues, and 
embraced its stated purpose of supporting the reelection of 
President Uribe.  Santos recently accepted a role as 
coordinator of Uribe's reelection efforts. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) While the PLC remains strong in certain regions of 
the country, in particular the Atlantic Coast, its national 
strength has diminished.  In the Congress, its most centrist 
and charismatic figures appear set to defect to the Apertura 
Liberal movement, leaving the PLC with less than half of its 
2002 nominal representation in both houses of Congress. 
Serpa's complaints to the contrary, Gaviria is likely to take 
over the party in June, a move in the direction of internal 
cohesion.  It remains to be seen, however, if Gaviria alone 
can bring the PLC back to national prominence.  If reelection 
stands, the PLC on its own cannot challenge President Uribe 
in 2006.  Were the election to go to a runoff (required by 
law if no candidate attains a majority in the first round), a 
potential alliance between the PLC and leftist parties in a 
second round would still face an uphill battle against the 
popular incumbent. 
WOOD