US embassy cable - 05QUITO883

UNCLAS QUITO 000883 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EC 
SUBJECT: EARLY ELECTIONS REQUIRE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE 
 
REF: A. QUITO 881 
 
     B. QUITO 874 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  Numerous Ecuadorians consider Alfredo Palacio 
an interim president and are demanding that he call early 
elections.  The constitution does not contemplate such a 
move, however.  Reforming Ecuador's supreme law requires 
either a two-thirds majority of Congress or a successful 
referendum.  Nevertheless, if Palacio wants early elections, 
we'd bet he gets them.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  Emboldened by their success in taking down ex-President 
Lucio Gutierrez April 20, a wide range of Ecuadorians -- 
street protesters, TV commentators, even provincial 
politicians -- are demanding that President Palacio preside 
over a caretaker government while simultaneously calling for 
immediate elections.  In his first press conference as chief 
executive, Palacio voiced opposition to such a move, claiming 
it played into the hands of establishment politicians hungry 
to fill the vacuum Gutierrez left (Ref B).  Palacio claimed 
he would heed the public's call if it proved overwhelming, 
however. 
 
3.  Ecuador enjoys a purely presidential (as opposed to 
parliamentary) form of government.  Dissolving Congress is 
not contemplated under the constitution, for example, nor is 
calling early elections.  Article 164 states that the 
president's term, which lasts four years, commences on the 
January 15th following the election (which normally takes 
place in October or November).  No other articles deal 
specifically with election timing. 
 
4.  Poloff April 21 spoke with Jose Gabriel Teran, the 
octogenarian head of international relations at the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal and perhaps Ecuador's foremost election 
expert.  Teran agreed the constitution did not contemplate 
early elections.  To call them legally, Teran continued, the 
sponsor would first need a constitutional amendment.  Article 
280 outlines the process, noting the constitution may be 
changed in two manners.  In the first, Congress may pass a 
constitutional reform law; a two-thirds majority is required, 
and one year must pass between first and second plenary 
debates.  The second requires the president to submit the 
proposed amendment to a referendum after first consulting 
Congress.  Past history shows the referendum option, while 
quicker than the reform law, would still require at least 
three months, anathema to those seeking immediate change. 
 
5.  COMMENT:  As noted in Ref A, Ecuadorian politicians enjoy 
great freedom in interpreting their constitution as 
circumstances demand.  Should pressures mount on Palacio to 
call immediate elections, we doubt legal provisions will keep 
him from doing so. 
KENNEY