US embassy cable - 05QUITO879

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000879 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ASEC, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: IS A PALACIO GOVERNMENT SUSTAINABLE? 
 
 
Classified By: Amb. Kristie A. Kenney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  A Palacio government could prove 
sustainable in the short term (1-3 months), but will come 
under increasing pressure to call new elections after its 
first month.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) Key factors behind this judgment: 
 
-- Palacio has the support of the military and police high 
command. 
 
-- Palacio has the backing of the PSC, with 22 seats, the 
largest party in Congress. 
 
-- The elevation of Palacio was also backed by the following 
political parties:  ID (14), MPD (3), Pachakutik (4), 
Socialists (3), DP (3), PRIAN (1) and 10 independents. 
 
-- Palacio will include PSC and ID members in his cabinet. 
 
-- The main indigenous organization (CONAIE) supported 
Palacio as Gutierrez' replacement.  Key indigenous leaders 
tell us that Palacio will be acceptable for 1-3 months only, 
however, until new elections can be held. 
 
-- Street reaction has calmed since Palacio was sworn in, 
after an initial negative reaction.  That reaction appears 
directed more at Congress than Palacio, who has emphasized 
that he is not a career politician.  Radio La Luna has called 
on protesters to desist for the moment. 
 
-- Pressures will mount on Palacio to announce early 
elections (he has rejected this as unconstitutional, but 
could do so by referendum) or should his early decisions 
revive street protests.  Thus far, his public statements have 
mollified the protesters, which have operated independently 
of political parties. 
KENNEY