US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2994

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002994 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, ETRD, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: MEA SAYS "CRICKET SUMMIT" RE-FRAMED INDO-PAK AGENDA 
 
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 5490 
     B. NEW DELHI 2884 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: In a March 20 meeting with PolCouns and 
Poloff, MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) 
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion that India had obtained 
more than Pakistan from the "Cricket Summit," highlighting 
Manmohan Singh's vision of a new agenda for Indo-Pak 
relations that transcends borders and reduces the relevance 
of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs.  Sinha emphasized that the PM 
has also taken a risk by pushing the notion of "soft borders" 
at a time when terrorist infrastructure remains intact on the 
Pakistani side.  This will be sustainable, he argued, only so 
long as the level of infiltration remains low.  Sinha agreed 
that the visit produced a number of important Kashmir-related 
CBMs, and although the expert-level talks in the Composite 
Dialogue were not finalized, the Foreign Secretaries will 
meet in August to pave the way for another meeting between 
Musharraf and PM Manmohan Singh, either at the UNGA or during 
a Singh visit to Pakistan.  Details on expanding rail and bus 
links as outlined in the April 18 Joint Statement are still 
to be worked out.  Sinha noted that the presence of Railways 
Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav in the delegation that met 
Musharraf served the PM's purpose of expanding the "peace 
constituency" beyond Congress.  He also credited US pressure 
stemming from the GWOT and the vast expansion of 
people-to-people exchanges for the "new" Musharraf.  End 
Summary. 
 
180 Degree Change from Agra 
--------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) 
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion in some press accounts 
that India had received more than Pakistan from the "Cricket 
Summit," emphasizing Manmohan Singh's vision of different 
kind of Indo-Pak relationship that transcends borders and 
reduces the relevance of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs. 
Admitting that he had been "surprised by how positive" the 
April 16-18 visit of President Musharraf to India was, Sinha 
called it the most successful Indo-Pak summit in years, if 
not ever, and agreed that the Pakistani President's behavior 
in New Delhi was a 180-degree change from that in Agra in 
July 2001.  The J/S noted that interpersonal vibes had been 
excellent, and that the new CBMs would undoubtedly accelerate 
because of the visit. 
 
Cautious on Infiltration 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) Sinha emphasized that the Indian PM had also taken a 
risk by pushing the notion of soft borders at a time when the 
infrastructure of terrorism remains intact on the Pakistani 
side.  This will be sustainable, he argued, only so long as 
the level of infiltration remains low.  Although Musharraf 
reaffirmed his January 6, 2004 promise not to let terrorists 
operate from Pakistani-controlled territory, the GOI will 
wait until the snow melts in J&K and the passes become 
navigable for cross-border infiltration before deciding 
whether he was keeping that promise, the J/S noted.  The GOI 
has seen no evidence that Islamabad had rolled up terrorist 
infrastructure, but he had "no reason to be a pessimist at 
this point."  Sinha agreed with PolCouns that movement in the 
Kashmir peace process might make it easier for Musharraf to 
live up to his January 6 promise, but also noted that the 
downturn in terrorism during 2004 made it easier for the GOI 
to make concessions, for example on travel documents for the 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus. 
 
No Firm Dates for Composite Dialogue 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Sinha confirmed that the Composite Dialogue schedule 
was being "chalked out" and would conclude with a Foreign 
Secretaries' meeting in August, but the two sides had yet to 
 
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agree on dates for expert-level talks.  Following the Foreign 
Secretaries' meeting would be another Singh-Musharraf 
 
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session, which could be either on the sidelines of UNGA, or 
possibly during the PM's visit to Pakistan, the J/S added. 
He expects the relevant economic ministries to become 
involved in operationalizing the agreements for reviving the 
Indo-Pak Joint Commission, but also cautioned that the trade 
relationship has been hobbled by complaints on both sides 
about non-tarrif barriers. 
 
New Transportation Links Being Worked Out 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Reviewing deliverables in the Joint Statement, Sinha 
said India would have been ready to inaugurate the 
Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail link in October, because the GOI 
only has to rehabilitate a few kilometers of track, but the 
date was pushed back to allow Islamabad time to upgrade its 
meter-gauge track to broad-gauge.  He warned that the January 
1, 2006 target start date may prove "optimistic" for the GOP 
to upgrade over 100 kilometers.  The long-term benefit would 
be a fully accessible Indo-Pak rail system, because once the 
broad-gauge track is laid from the Indian border to Mirpur 
Khas (the Pakistani rail hub closest to the border town of 
Khokhrapar), the two national rail systems would be linked. 
"You could then take a train from New Delhi to Karachi," 
Sinha explained. 
 
6.  (C) The J/S reported that the two governments had not yet 
worked out details for the new Amritsar-Lahore and 
Nankana-Sahib bus routes, the Poonch-Rawalkote trans-LOC 
link, or the increase in frequency of the 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service as outlined in the Joint 
Statement.  He specified that the focus would be on reviving 
existing routes and listed Skardu-Kargil and Jammu-Sialkot as 
being "on the cards." 
 
PM Enlarging the Peace Constituency 
----------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Sinha pointed to Railways Minister and RJD leader 
Laloo Prasad Yadav,s presence in the GOI delegation as 
demonstrating the PM's efforts to enlarge the Indian peace 
constituency beyond Congress.  In this respect, he said, 
Laloo,s political value as a participant in the talks with 
Musharraf far exceeded his Cabinet rank. 
 
GOI Theories on the "New" Musharraf 
----------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) In response to PolCouns' probing of what was 
responsible for the "new" Musharraf, Sinha agreed that it 
resulted from a number of "pressures," including Pakistan's 
role in the Global War on Terror and continued US engagement 
with Musharraf on the issue of cross-border infiltration.  He 
also credited the initiative in people-to-people ties over 
the past year that broke down psychological barriers and 
facilitated the diplomatic initiatives PMs Vajpayee and 
Manmohan Singh offered.  Furthermore, after "seven years of 
failed Indo-Pak policies with no pay-offs," Musharraf may 
have felt a need to "change for success," Sinha speculated. 
 
9.  (C) The J/S observed that Musharraf's visit was better 
received in the Indian papers than in Pakistani ones, and 
opined that his domestic opposition was "restricted to 
hard-liners and not widespread."  Mainstream Pakistanis never 
supported terrorism even when relations with India were poor, 
and now Musharraf himself is isolating the hardliners.  The 
"new" Musharraf had even undercut any BJP backlash by 
visiting both Opposition Leader LK Advani and former PM 
Vajpayee, Sinha noted. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) The MEA's "cautious optimism" on relations with 
Islamabad has clearly begun to change to "optimism" after 
this unusually successful visit, although New Delhi will look 
for infiltration to stay low and for evidence that the jihadi 
infrastructure in Pakistan is reduced, if not rolled-up. 
While the MEA remains institutionally cautious vis-a-vis 
Islamabad, it has clearly fallen in behind the PM's 
leadership on Pakistan policy.  Less well understood -- 
outside Manmohan Singh's widening circle of supporters -- is 
the PM's notion of a redefined Indo-Pak relationship that 
downplays Kashmir as a source of discord, asserts that 
territorial disputes are irrelevant in a global economy, and 
seeks to deepen the commercial and personal relationships 
that could provide the foundation for a cooperative future. 
BJP leaders like Jaswant Singh warn that the UPA is "now 
getting into the deeper end of the pool" and needs to explain 
its geo-political pronouncements.  But the fact that MEA 
mandarins like Sinha are now enunciating this vision suggests 
that the terms of debate over India's relations with Pakistan 
have started to shift. 
BLAKE