US embassy cable - 05LILONGWE346

C O N F I D E N T I A L LILONGWE 000346 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S, INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, MI, PGOV, Political, President 
SUBJECT: MULUZI ARREST POSSIBLE WITHIN WEEKS 
 
Classified By: CDA David Gilmour for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. Summary: A Western diplomat who recently met with Malawi 
attorney general Ralph Kasambara has told us that the 
Mutharika government could arrest former president Muluzi by 
the end of May.  The AG is said to be working on three 
principal corruption-related charges.  End summary. 
 
2. A Western diplomatic colleague who recently met with 
Malawi attorney general Ralph Kasambara has told us that 
Kasambara is preparing a case against former president Muluzi 
that will involve three principal charges: the 2001 "maize 
scam", Muluzi's alleged improper purchase of real estate 
using GOM funds, and irregularities in the awarding of a 
contract for preshipment customs inspection services 
involving the UK firm Intertek and Swiss company SGS. 
Kasambara said that Muluzi could be arrested by the end of 
May. 
 
3. Kasambara speculated that the arrest could provoke limited 
violence, including some deaths.  He believes that any 
violent reaction would be short-lived. 
 
4. Kasambara said that the case is being handled in strict 
confidence only within his office, and that the 
Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) is not involved.  Our contact 
did not know whether this was simply operational security on 
the part of the AG, or an indication of a turf battle between 
the two offices.  The ACB has, up until now, been the most 
high profile office engaged in fighting corruption cases, 
although it has yet to produce a significant conviction since 
President Mutharika took office.  Mutharika doubled the ACB's 
budget, and the office receives considerable support from 
donors, including the USG, which recently gave ACB a $200,000 
ESF grant. 
 
4. Comment: Kasambara is known to be close to Mutharika, and 
we can assume that he is acting on the president's direct 
orders.  If the story is true, the arrest of Muluzi will be a 
very high-risk gamble for Mutharika.  If the GOM fails to get 
a conviction, it will seriously damage Mutharika's 
anti-corruption campaign, which Muluzi's supporters already 
characterize as political persecution.  There is a risk of 
civil disorder, but we agree that it would be limited to 
certain regions and would probably be short in duration.  The 
vast majority of Malawians have little sympathy for Muluzi, 
and there is widespread feeling that his ten years in power 
were a loss for the country. 
 
5. From Mutharika's standpoint, there is logic in getting the 
pain over with sooner rather than later, especially with a 
potential food crisis looming later in the year that could 
provoke tension in the country.  Muluzi has been a persistent 
thorn in the side of Mutharika and his government.  As the 
past nine months have shown, it seems that Muluzi is bent 
either on regaining political control of the country or 
engineering Mutharika's downfall, to repay what he views as 
betrayal.  At this point, Mutharika may see removing Muluzi 
as the only option, and he has nothing to gain from delay. 
GILMOUR