US embassy cable - 05GABORONE561

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000561 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, BC, IBB, Zimbabwe 
SUBJECT:  BOTSWANA ASSESSES POST-ELECTION ZIMBABWE 
 
1. (U) Summary:  During a meeting between AF/S Director 
Dan Mozena and Botswana's MFA PermSec Mpofu on April 7, 
the latter was frank in airing the frustration the GOB 
feels regarding Zimbabwe.  The deterioration of trade 
and the dislocations border jumpers cause for Botswana 
are two major problems.  Albeit reluctantly, GOB 
continues to allow VOA's transmission via medium-wave 
of broadcasts into Zimbabwe. Impatience with Zimbabwe's 
political and economic crises was the tone of the 
discussion.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) AF/S Director Dan Mozena met with GOB's MFA 
Permanent Secretary, Ernest Mpofu, on April 7, at the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International 
Cooperation.  Also attending:  Lois Aroian, Deputy 
Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy, Gaborone, Julian 
Mokgathle, MFA, Americas and Europe Desk.  Pol/Econ 
chief took notes. 
 
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The Zimbabwe Election 
--------------------- 
3. (U) The meeting opened with mutual pleasantries, and 
talk of regional rain, which led into talk of regional 
food security.  Without prompting, PermSec Mpofu stated 
that food was used as a political weapon in Zimbabwe. 
The recently held Zimbabwe elections then came under 
review. DCM noted that election observers from the 
region should have gone to Zimbabwe earlier than they 
did and alluded to U.S. Embassy Harare's deploying at 
least 35 observers, who witnessed election 
irregularities and concluded that there was in fact 
massive rigging.  PermSec Mpofu responded by saying 
that the world now needed to hear from the Movement for 
Democratic Change (MDC).  "It is a pity the MDC didn't 
get its act together," he said.  He stated that SADC 
(Southern African Development Community) had delayed 
its own pronouncement on the election-it had waited a 
day -- in order to give the MDC a chance to produce 
evidence of election rigging, but such evidence had not 
then been forthcoming.  It was only now-a week later -- 
that the MDC alleged irregularities happening in at 
least 36 constituencies, and that the voters tallied 
were not consonant with the announced result. Director 
Mozena agreed: the MDC should have done this 
immediately, and should have done a parallel vote 
count. 
 
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Troublesome Neighbor 
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4.  (SBU)PermSec Mpofu continued: he did not blame the 
MDC-it was not able to mobilize quickly.  "In any 
case," he continued, "an election is only part of the 
picture.  What I said to the Zimbabwe ambassador was, 
`You are obviously very excited about the election; you 
are happy-but what is your way forward?'" Mpofu said 
that it was very difficult for Botswana, as neighboring 
country, to continue as if nothing has changed.  He 
would like to discuss relations between the two 
countries at some length with the Zimbabwean 
ambassador, but there was no responsiveness. Mozena 
asked what the Zimbabwean ambassador had said to that, 
and Mpofu said there had been no response whatsoever. 
He chuckled, and said, "Don't tell Washington, since if 
word got back to Zimbabwe, we would once again be 
accused of being on the side of the Americans- but we 
have our problems with Zimbabwe." Mpofu said of 
Zimbabwe, "It is a burden we have to bear." The 
Botswana people are becoming very hostile to 
Zimbabweans, and that is not a desirable situation." 
 
5.  (SBU) Mpofu elaborated.  Foremost is the fact that 
bilateral trade has gone down in the last few years. 
Whereas up to five years ago, 33 percent of Botswana's 
external trade was with Zimbabwe, that is now less than 
an estimated 2 percent - mostly imports, according to 
Mpofu.  In the past, Selebi-Phikwe and Francistown, as 
Botswana's manufacturing hubs, depended on Zimbabwe as 
their primary market outlet.  That has vanished. 
Bulawayo used to be the industrial center of Zimbabwe. 
Manufacturing enterprises often had dual factory 
locations--one in Francistown, and one in Bulawayo, 
where a division of labor in the manufacturing 
processes, especially in textiles, was shared.  Goods 
made with 25 percent local input were considered 
domestic.  The more sophisticated products would go 
back to Zimbabwe for finishing. This arrangement 
benefited both Zimbabwe and Botswana.  That has now 
changed drastically. Factories have closed on both 
sides of the border, increasing unemployment in 
Botswana, and Bulawayo, according to Mpofu, is a `ghost 
town'. 
 
6. (SBU) Mpofu then described the adverse effect of the 
Beitbridge railway line on Botswana Railways since 
2000.  Goods that transit Zimbabwe from RSA to Botswana 
are now considered subject to duties.  Mpofu said, 
"Well, we don't think this is only Zimbabwe's doing; we 
suspect RSA is colluding; they want to kill Botswana 
Railways and take it over."  He said that GOB had 
several times discussed the tardiness of delivery of 
goods and the inefficiencies of the Beitbridge railway 
with Zimbabwe: "We thought they understood- but nothing 
happened." 
 
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The Border Fence 
----------------- 
7.  (SBU) Mozena asked about the construction of the 
border fence between Botswana and Zimbabwe.  Mpofu 
embarked on a lengthy explanation.  In the past, he 
said, animals that came over the border were destroyed. 
That was no solution; people also bring in meat, and 
this has the potential to carry animal disease. 
Furthermore, elephants, which can be vectors of 
livestock diseases, rarely were deterred by a fence, 
nor were kudu, which can also be affected by foot and 
mouth disease.  "So Botswana decided to build a 
stronger fence- electrified."  Foot and mouth disease 
is endemic in Zimbabwe and the country does not have 
the resources to combat it.  Botswana had offered to 
send vaccine, but with no success, at least not until 
the situation got desperate. "Zimbabweans are not 
easy," said Mpofu. 
 
8.  (SBU) Mozena asked what effect the electrified 
fence would have on the migration of people.  Mpofu 
said that the electrified fence will be perceived as 
being erected primarily as a deterrent to people 
migration, although that was not the case.  He cited 
the increased number of border crossing points, so that 
persons intent on legally entering Botswana from 
Zimbabwe would not have to walk far.  But the majority 
of Zimbabweans cross illegally, and are here.  Mpofu 
suggested that Mozena have a look around Kaunda Road, 
one of Gaborone's major thoroughfares, where illegal 
Zimbabweans sit along the sidewalks, hoping to be 
selected for odd jobs and piecework.  He said they were 
everywhere: a friend of his, on the road to  Shakawe in 
the extreme northwest of the country, was accosted by 
Zimbabweans begging for work: "In remote cattleposts, 
you will find English-speaking Zimbabweans." 
 
9. (SBU)  Mozena asked what Batswana think of this 
state of affairs. Mpofu said, "People are becoming 
hostile." All crime is attributed to Zimbabweans. 
Mpofu said, "I come from the northeast of the country, 
where people are ethnically the same as across the 
border-Kalanga, Ndebele.  We used to travel back and 
forth, and help each other during Zimbabwe's liberation 
struggle.  But even there now, people are very hostile. 
They are the first victims of crimes committed by 
desperate Zimbabweans who have no money, no food -- 
nothing." 
 
10. (SBU)  Mozena asked what could be done.  Mpofu 
responded by saying that Zimbabwe's situation is a 
problem for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  He 
recited what he had asked the Zimbabwean ambassador: 
what is the way forward?  Mpofu stated that he had 
advised the Zimbabwean ambassador to normalize 
relations with the West, and with the rest of the 
world.  To rehabilitate the Zimbabwean economy, funding 
from western sources, the World Bank, and  even from 
the African Development Bank would be needed, and that 
implied Zimbabwe would have to take a  different 
international stance. When Mozena asked about his 
reaction, Mpofu said, with little attempt at disguising 
his bemusement, "The Zimbabwean ambassador is not very 
sophisticated." 
 
--------------- 
VOA Broadcasts 
--------------- 
11. (SBU) Mozena thanked Mpofu for Botswana's allowing 
the VOA transmitter in Selebi-Phikwe to broadcast 
programs into Zimbabwe.  "And the people of Zimbabwe 
thank you, also," he said, "as it is often their only 
source of news.  Almost everyone listens to the 
programs."  Mpofu responded by saying there was a lot 
of pressure on Botswana; Zimbabwe views Botswana as 
being engaged in a conspiracy.  Mpofu made a pitch once 
again for shortwave, rather than medium-wave 
broadcasts. He disagreed when Mozena pointed out medium- 
wave broadcasts were more accessible to Zimbabweans. 
 
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Perennial Problem: Zimbabwe 
-------------------------- 
12. (SBU)  Mpofu turned philosophical, and reflective. 
He stated that he would retire next year.  He recalled 
that when he started in the foreign ministry in 1975, 
Zimbabwe was the issue; the only place the region could 
meet to discuss it was Lusaka.  Thirty years later, he 
said, "I'm still dealing with Zimbabwe.  What 
contribution has Zimbabwe made to the region? 
Nothing." 
 
13.  (SBU) Comment:  Perhaps because he is soon going 
into retirement, PermSec Mpofu was extremely forthright 
in his comments on Botswana's neighboring country, 
Zimbabwe.  Mpofu, a Kalanga-speaker whose parents came 
to Botswana from then-Southern Rhodesia, decades ago, 
clearly has strong feelings about events in Zimbabwe, 
and frankly expressed them to a sympathetic 
interlocutor like Mozena.  Nonetheless, Botswana's 
government is unlikely to progress from frustration to 
a plan of action on addressing its neighbor's crisis. 
End comment. 
HUGGINS