US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1863

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001863 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, SINO- 
JAPANESE DISPUTES 
 
 
1. Summary: The upcoming trips to China by KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan and PFP Chairman James Soong have received 
wide coverage in the Taipei dailies April 20, as to be 
expected after Taiwan's Presidential Office April 19 
announcement put the visits in a somewhat different 
light.  The Presidential Office announced Tuesday that 
no one would disagree with the fact that the 10-point 
consensus reached by President Chen Shui-bian and PFP 
Chairman James Soong in late February represents Chen's 
position.  That possibly implies that Soong's visit, at 
least, is not contrary to President Chen's wishes.  The 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan biggest daily, 
ran a banner headline on its front page that said: 
"Lien and Soong to visit China, the Green Camp proposes 
three oppositions and three insistences."  The sub- 
headline added: "DPP Executive Committee passed a 
resolution and is firmly opposed to using the 
acceptance of one China and the 1992 consensus as the 
pre-condition for [Taiwan] political party leaders' 
visits to China.  [The DPP] will use the resolution [as 
a criteria] to examine Lien and Soong."  The "Liberty 
Times" also carried a news story on page two which said 
"In the face of Lien's and Soong's China's trips, the 
United States is concerned that the arms procurement 
may not be passed easily."  The sub-headline read: 
"High-ranking sources said the United States believes 
Beijing should contact Taiwan's ruling government and 
[the United States] also says frankly that it hopes 
Taiwan will not further delay the U.S. arms 
procurements by switching the focus."  The centrist 
"China Times," however, carried a story on page four 
that quoted the PFP as saying that should a consensus 
be reached by Soong and Chinese President Hu Jintao, it 
might become the basis for both sides of the Taiwan 
Strait to resume dialogue. 
 
2. The "Liberty Times" ran an editorial strongly 
criticizing the planned visits to China by Taiwan's 
opposition party leaders.  It urged the Taiwan 
government not to treat Lien's and Soong's visits 
differently, or it will fall into a trap set by China. 
A limited-circulation, pro-independence English- 
language "Taipei Times" editorial called on the leaders 
of the three main parties to hold a summit on national 
affairs and to pass the U.S. arms procurement bill 
before Lien and Soong visit China.  A "China Times" 
news analysis said that Beijing's plan is to have Lien 
and Soong build a bridge first so as to encourage 
President Chen Shui-bian to "take a new route."  The 
limited-circulation, pro-unification English-language 
"China Post" editorial said Lien's and Soong's upcoming 
visits to China reflect a "sea change" in Taiwan's 
domestic politics and may pave the way for Taiwan and 
Beijing to bury the hatchet and move toward political 
reconciliation. 
 
3. The major Chinese-language Taiwan newspapers' 
coverage of the anti-Japanese disputes has decreased 
further, and only one limited-circulation English- 
language newspaper editorialized on this issue.  The 
pro-independence English-language "Taiwan News" said 
the anti-Japanese riots in China confirm the validity 
of Taiwan's fears of the dangers from extreme "great 
Chinese" nationalism.  End summary. 
 
1. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
A) "[We] Will Not Allow [Lien and Soong] to Offer the 
Safety and Well-being of the 23 Million [Taiwan] People 
as Tribute to Curry Favor with China" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
800,000] editorialized (4/20): 
 
". In other words, in terms of national sovereignty, 
China is Taiwan's only enemy; as for the aspect of 
economic development, China is Taiwan's biggest 
competitor.  In the face of such an enemy and a rival 
that tries to get all it wants by fair means or foul, 
Taiwan's cross-Strait policy must focus on self- 
protection; namely, it must make sure that the 
foundation of Taiwan's economic developments will not 
be undermined, its freedom and democracy will not be 
sabotaged, and that its national sovereignty will not 
be trampled.  Based on such a pre-condition, Taiwan 
obviously should maintain a certain distance with China 
so as to ensure its safety.  The visits to China by 
Taiwan's opposition party leaders, with or without the 
government's authorization or the ten-point consensus 
reached between Chen and Soong, are inappropriate 
behaviors.  In particular, China is getting more and 
more skillful in applying the united front tactics on 
Taiwan.  It could appeal to the Anti-Secession Law on 
one hand and befriend Lien and Soong on the other so as 
to be ready to launch an attack against the Taiwan 
government simultaneously from within and without.  The 
government will fall into the trap set by China if it 
decides to adopt a differentiate treatment toward Lien 
and Soong. ." 
 
B) "Expediency Only Goes so Far" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] commented in its editorial 
(4/20): 
 
". Before Lien and Soong visit Beijing, it is crucial 
that the leaders of the three main parties hold a 
summit on national affairs.  Only if some level of 
consensus is reached will the KMT and PFP chairmen be 
able to engage in substantive negotiations with 
Beijing. . 
 
"To ensure that the Taiwanese people emerge as victors 
from these talks, the two party chairmen should demand 
legislators push through the long-delayed arms- 
procurement bill before arriving in China.  We all know 
that peace is built on security, so Taiwan should first 
secure its position before entering into talks with 
China.  Only then will the talks hold any meaning." 
 
C) "Beijing's Plan Is That Lien and Soong Will Build a 
Bridge [across the Taiwan Strait] for Bian to `Take a 
New Route'" 
 
Journalist Wang Li-chuan commented in a news analysis 
of the conservative, pro-unification "United Daily 
News" [circulation: 600,000] (4/20): 
 
"Beijing has been very proactively in inviting the 
chairmen of Taiwan's two major political parties to 
visit mainland China lately in an attempt to open a new 
channel and platform for cross-Strait dialogue and 
communication.  The cross-Strait situation is now at a 
state of `Where the hills and streams end and there 
seems no road beyond, amidst shading willows and 
blooming flowers another village appears' - meaning one 
begins to see hope when all seems lost.  Beijing's 
invitations revealed many of its intentions: in 
addition to show the United States its attitude to 
build the channel of dialogue across the Taiwan Strait 
proactively, China also wants to place pressure on the 
Chen Shui-bian government using the power of Taiwan's 
opposition parties so as to force him to accept the 
`1992 consensus' and to push the cross-Strait ties back 
to the `one China' framework. 
 
"Judged either from the domestic or international 
perspective, the Chen Shui-bian administration and his 
party will suffer a great pressure following [KMT 
Chairman] Lien Chan's and [PFP] Chairman James Soong's 
visits to China.  In terms of the international 
climate, a stabilized cross-Strait situation is in the 
interests of all countries involved at the current 
stage.  Beijing has more than once told Washington that 
it `will adopt measures to reduce cross-Strait 
tensions,' and its invitations will give U.S. Secretary 
of State Condoleezza Rice, who is always relentless 
about the Beijing regime, no reasons to find fault with 
it.  Beijing's invitations to the leaders of Taiwan's 
two major opposition parties are all the more a gesture 
to show to the international community that even though 
Beijing has passed the Anti-Secession Law, its position 
is to advocate cross-Strait peace and stability. . 
 
"Lien and Soong will soon visit mainland China 
separately, and a new aspect for the cross-Strait 
relations will be unveiled.  The Beijing authorities 
have more than once sent out signals of 
`reconciliation' to the Chen Shui-bian administration 
and his party; its purpose of hoping that the DPP will 
`take a new route' is more than evident." 
 
D) "PRC Visits by Lien and Soong Reflect Political Sea 
Change" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] noted in an 
editorial (4/20): 
 
"The scheduled historic visits to Beijing in the next 
few weeks by KMT chairman Lien Chan and PFP leaders 
James Soong reflect a sea change in Taiwan's domestic 
politics and may pave the way for this island and its 
arch-rival mainland China to bury the hatchet and move 
toward political reconciliation. . 
 
"When examined deeply, however, Lien and Soong's coming 
mainland trips mark a shift in a popular mood to 
improve relations with China.  It is this nascent 
opinion shift that has emboldened the KMT and PFP 
leaders to embrace Beijing without having to worry that 
their new policy will cause their parties to lose voter 
support, as they have been in the past. 
 
"Meanwhile, Lien and Soong's bold initiatives to visit 
Beijing reflect a corresponding decline in Chen's 
political influence and his usually powerful populism. 
He can no longer continue to deny an opposition role in 
the debate on cross-strait policy by painting their 
politicians red by accusing them of selling out Taiwan 
or being the communists' fellow travelers. 
 
"The current surge in the embrace of China among the 
opposition leaders, in fact, is only part of a recent 
series of developments that underscore a dwindling in 
the influence of the independence movement as a whole, 
and this dwindling was brought about by three major 
factors. 
 
"First and more important is the DPP's humiliating 
setbacks in the December election.  The inability of 
Chen, who campaigned for a new Constitution and a plan 
to change China-linked names of all government 
institutions, to win a legislative majority has made it 
impossible for him to carry out those plans.  More 
fundamentally, the poll setbacks have weakened his 
legitimacy to push for his political agenda. 
 
"Another factor was a change in U.S. policy.  For the 
past year or so, Washington has reinforced its stance 
of not supporting Taiwan independence by consistently 
warning Chen not to take any moves to unilaterally 
alter the cross-strait status quo.  Otherwise, he could 
risk losing U.S. backing. 
 
"A third reason is the impact of Beijing's recently 
enacted anti-secession law, which authorizes the 
mainland to attack Taiwan if it moves toward formal 
independence.  The threat of attack has produced a 
constraining impact on Chen and his administration. ." 
 
2. Sino-Japanese Disputes 
 
"Anti-Japanese Riots in China Confirm Taiwan's Worries" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] commented in its editorial (4/20): 
 
". As a victim of 50 years of Japanese colonial 
occupation from 1895 to 1945, Taiwan and its people, 
including many whom directly experienced Japanese 
aggression in China as well, has ample reasons to 
resent Japanese rule and no reason to defend Japan's 
record in the Second World War, but so far have 
remained relatively quiet in the current wave of anti- 
Japanese protests. 
 
"The prime reason lies in the fact that the Taiwan 
government and most of our people are rather concerned 
about the present and possible future impact of the 
surfacing of a virulent form of great Chinese 
chauvinism than about the undeniable reality of 
Japanese crimes of aggression committed nearly 70 years 
ago. . 
 
"Given its status as one of the world's greatest 
economic powers and its postwar diplomatic record 
(including its active role in humanitarian aid 
programs), Japan fully deserves a seat on the U.N. 
Security Council even though chauvinist political 
forces still exist and have some influence, as the 
approval of the offending textbooks unfortunately 
shows. . 
 
"Moreover, the tacit approval of the PRC authorities to 
the overt displays of racism and chauvinism against 
Japanese citizens ahs starkly underlined the validity 
of Taiwan's own concerns of possible aggression by the 
PRC and the all too real possibility that the Beijing 
authorities could stir up similar waves of `popular 
anger' against Taiwan and Taiwan citizens or against 
the people of any country that supports Taiwan someday 
in the future. 
 
"We hope in particular that global policy-makers will 
take seriously this threat.  In particular, we urge the 
European Union to continue to maintain the EU's embargo 
on the sale of arms to the PRC, imposed in the wake of 
the Tiananmen Incident." 
 
PAAL