US embassy cable - 05RANGOON460

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, BM, Ethnics, NLD 
SUBJECT: SHAN EXILES GET A RISE OUT OF BURMESE 
GENERALS--AND THE NLD 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 332 
 
     B. RANGOON 201 AND PREVIOUS 
     C. RANGOON 62 
 
Classified By: DCM Ronald K. McMullen for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Reacting to a recent exile-based declaration 
of independence for the "Federated Shan States," the SPDC on 
April 19 declared a host of unnamed groups as "unlawful 
associations," which could expose those who support democracy 
and human rights in Shan State to jail terms of up to 13 
years.  The National League for Democracy reacted to these 
events by characterizing the Shan exiles as "irresponsible" 
and issued its own statement that rejected any attempt to 
secede or to oppose the achievement of a "genuine Union." 
The SPDC's quick reaction to the Shan independence 
declaration, despite the fact that the declaration is 
unlikely to have any impact inside Burma, is part of an 
ongoing effort to deter any attempt to unify ethnic political 
and/or military groups.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) On April 19, the GOB's Minister of Home Affairs, 
Maj-Gen Maung Oo, issued an ominous notification that 
declared unnamed groups linked to Sao Hkam Hpa, an exiled 
ethnic Shan politician, as "unlawful associations."  Maung 
Oo's vague statement, issued via official radio and published 
in the state press on April 20, said that the Chairman of the 
State Peace and Development Council, Sr Gen Than Shwe, 
"believes that the aims and acts of groups led by renegade 
Sao Hkam Hpa, its members, and other related groups and 
individuals endanger the law enforcement of the Union of 
Myanmar, stability of the State, and peace and tranquillity 
of the entire people." 
 
3. (U) The SPDC's unusual statement was precipitated by an 
April 17 statement by Sao Kham Hpa (aka Surkhanpha), who 
issued a "declaration of independence" for the "Federated 
Shan States" and appointed himself as head of state.  Sao 
Kham Hpa, who lives in exile in Canada, is the son of Burma's 
first president, Sao Shwe Thaike, and a descendent of ethnic 
Shan royalty.  In his statement, he criticized successive 
Burmese military regimes for having "occupied and subjugated 
us for 43 years" and declared that "we are presently at war 
to expel foreign occupation troops from our lands," promising 
to hold general elections "as soon as it is practical" to 
create a bi-cameral Congress or Parliament. 
 
4. (SBU) On April 20, P/E chief met with NLD Chairman U Aung 
Shwe and Secretary U Lwin.  The party issued its own 
statement on April 19 underscoring its policy "to work hand 
in hand with all ethnic nationalities in solidarity for 
development, peace, and tranquillity toward the sovereignty 
of the Union."  The party said that it would never support 
efforts that undermined the sovereignty of the Union, 
including a parallel government, and declared that the States 
and Divisions of the Union "must never secede."  U Lwin added 
to us that the NLD, "including Aung San Suu Kyi," has never 
advocated a federal system, but rather supports "only the 
pursuit of a true and genuine Union." 
 
5. (C) U Aung Shwe characterized the Shan exiles as "highly 
irresponsible" for making pronouncements outside of Burma 
that have serious repercussions inside the country.  He said 
the SPDC would use Sao Kham Hpa's "declaration of 
independence" as a pretext for a further crackdown on the 
pro-democracy movement in Shan State and pointed to the Home 
Minister's statement as an example.  The SPDC's "unlawful 
association" notification, U Aung Shwe said, was purposefully 
"broad and ill-defined," which will allow the regime to "go 
after just about anyone" who supports democracy and human 
rights in Shan State. 
 
6. (U) The SPDC has been particularly pre-occupied with Shan 
State in recent months, having arrested in February the core 
leadership of the pro-democracy (and legally registered) Shan 
Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD)(ref B); dealt with 
the possible "defection" of several Shan cease-fire groups 
from the National Convention (ref A), one of which ended up 
boycotting the most recent session (the Shan State National 
Army-SSNA); pondered the implications of U.S. federal 
indictments unsealed in January against the United Wa State 
Army (UWSA)(ref C); and observed renewed armed conflict 
between the UWSA and the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S). 
 
7. (C) The NLD's U Lwin, acknowledging that the Burmese 
regime "has its hands full" with a host of sticky issues in 
Shan State, said that the "unlawful association" notification 
reflects the SPDC's genuine fear that a secessionist movement 
could take hold among ethnic Shan groups.  "The GOB is 
scared," he added.  (Note: The Unlawful Associations Act, 
which dates back to 1908, imposes a 5-year jail term for the 
leaders of such groups and a 3-year term for "associated" 
individuals.  However, the regime generally invokes the Act 
along with the emergency and state security provisions of 
other laws to tack on an additional five to seven years 
imprisonment.  End Note.) 
 
8. (C) Comment: Sao Hkam Hpa's declaration, and others by 
several of his exile associates, carry very little weight in 
Shan State, Burma's largest administrative region and home to 
dozens of ethnic minority groups.  The appeal for an 
independent federation of Shan states may resonate with some 
ethnic Shan who look back nostalgically to historic periods 
when Shan princes ruled the region.  However, decades of 
ethnic and political strife, compounded by the SPDC's "divide 
and conquer" tactics, have resulted in a "state" that lacks 
any internal cohesion.  The SPDC's quick reaction to this 
exile declaration, which the generals could easily have 
ignored, is clearly designed to enhance ongoing efforts to 
deter any attempt to unify ethnic political and/or military 
groups.  End Comment. 
Martinez