US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2949

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002949 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, PGOV, IN, PK, NSSP 
SUBJECT: JASWANT SINGH SUPPORTS THE SECRETARY'S MARCH 25 
SOUTH ASIA INITIATIVE 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Meeting with A/S Rocca and the Charge in New 
Delhi on April 18, former Foreign Minister and BJP leader 
Jaswant Singh expressed wholehearted support for the 
Secretary's May 25 South Asia Initiative, especially its 
 
SIPDIS 
military aspects such as co-production.  Singh implied that 
the Congress dominated United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 
government was "not motivated" to pursue closer ties with the 
US, did not understand the true meaning of a strategic 
relationship, was too divided to pursue effectively foreign 
policy, and that a BJP government could do better.  Unlike 
other BJP leaders, Singh expressed no hostility towards 
Pakistan, emphasizing the many ties between the two 
countries, and describing a warm encounter between Musharraf 
and former PM Vajpayee.  Singh advised the USG to be 
"patient" with the UPA and take a long-term view on India-US 
relations, as they could take time to reach their full 
potential.  Singh presented the views of his party's moderate 
wing, which is genuinely interested in closer ties with the 
US and Pakistan.  End Summary 
 
Defense Co-production 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Expressing complete BJP support for the Secretary's 
May 25 offer of co-production of multi-role combat aircraft 
(MRCA), Singh pointed out that co-production is a "detailed 
process" that goes far beyond airplanes, and needs to be 
"candidly talked through."  He was skeptical that anyone in 
the UPA leadership understood the intricacies of this MRCA 
project.  In his estimation, co-production was not limited to 
specific types of equipment, but paid the largest dividends 
when it encompassed research into new technology.  Aircraft 
development today "is not like it was for Howard Hughes," the 
former Defense Minister quipped.  He emphasized that the 
process will only be successful if it takes the legislative 
process into account.  Noting that President Bush, as a 
second term leader, has some "free play" when it comes to 
co-production, Singh urged the USG to move aggressively in 
that direction.  In this capacity, he recalled earlier advice 
to Russian DefMin Ivanov that Moscow needed to move beyond a 
seller-buyer relationship with New Delhi. 
 
3.  (C) Referring to the Administration's South Asia 
announcements of March 25, Jaswant stated that "I accept this 
is a significant and meaningful step forward.  It is what is 
demanded by today's time."  However, he was dismissive of the 
High Technology Cooperation Group, complaining that it "has 
not kept" up with its original function of clearing high-tech 
imports and exports.  In this regard, governments lag behind 
entrepreneurs. 
 
Moving Forward 
-------------- 
 
4.  (C) A/S Rocca pointed out that the US and India are 
currently building on a foundation Singh laid while Foreign 
Minister.  Characterizing these developments as "momentous," 
she predicted that the process would be "unlike anything we 
have seen before."  The US and India needed to consolidate 
the gains of the first Bush Administration, to ensure that 
this Initiative achieved its goals, she stated. 
 
5,  (C) Singh characterized the US-India relationship as a 
"logical process," but that its pace will vary depending on 
the personalities involved.  Currently "there is a great 
impulse" as President Bush is deeply involved and has a 
policy mandate from the American people. 
 
Contrast With Congress 
---------------------- 
 
6.  (C) While happy with American commitment to upgrade its 
ties to India, Singh was not as enthusiastic about the UPA 
government.  He complained that the UPA was not as 
"motivated" and was not united when it came to making foreign 
policy decisions.  "There are too many centers and not the 
same clarity of purpose" as on the US side.  Singh predicted 
that this would result in some "checks to forward motion, but 
the process will continue." 
 
7.  (C) Singh advised the USG to have patience, noting that 
"a base must first be built before the process acquires a 
life of its own, and we have not yet reached that point."  A 
number of issues will arise that must be candidly addressed 
in a free-flowing dialog characterized by trust, he stated. 
 
The Broader View 
---------------- 
 
8.  (C) A/S Rocca agreed, noting that the USG has "a genuine 
desire to move now and strike while the iron is hot."  She 
noted that the Administration is taking "a broader view" that 
goes beyond the US/India relationship, and is trying to 
determine the shape of the world and what realignments will 
be required in the future.  In this capacity, she praised 
India as a democratic role model which could play a central 
role in this broader view. 
India and China 
--------------- 
 
9.  (C) Singh contrasted India, which he maintained has 
always been a nation, with its Asian rival China.  Even under 
colonialism in the absence of its own government, India was a 
nation, while China is dependent on a formal government 
mechanism or things begin to go awry.  "The Indian nation 
continues to operate despite its government," he pointed out 
with a laugh.  Singh described the Indian historical model as 
"federalism without the memory of federalism."  Unlike China, 
Singh asserted, India has always had a "native democracy" 
that predates the formal establishment of the parliamentary 
system.  Sometimes, this insistence on formal democracy 
handicaps indigenous democratic functioning, as was the case 
in Northeast India where New Delhi tried to introduce a 
variety of "democratic institutions" at the expense of 
"tribal egalitarianism." 
 
Trip to Washington 
------------------ 
 
10.  (C) While he is trying to restrict his overseas travel, 
Singh noted that he plans to be in Washington in late May to 
revive his connections there.  A/S Rocca offered to help make 
Singh's Washington visit a success. 
 
The Musharraf Visit 
------------------- 
 
11.  (C) Singh was enthusiastic about the Musharraf visit and 
the improving Indo-Pak relationship, pointing out that "we 
are the same folk, even if the Pakistanis deny it.  We are 
not really separate, we speak the same language."  The 
problem, he noted, was that when people are so close, their 
relationship often becomes characterized by a high degree of 
emotion.  Both countries must move beyond that and into 
substance.  The Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service "should not 
stop, although it will have problems." 
 
12.  (C) Singh professed more comfort with Musharraf (whom he 
and former PM Vajpayee had met earlier in the day), saying 
that he had "much less starch in his uniform" than during his 
previous visit in 2001 for the Agra Summit, when he behaved 
more like a general and less like a head of state.  He noted 
that it is a "bonus" that military dictators grow into their 
jobs and become more comfortable with each passing year. 
Musharraf's biggest problem is that no one in his government 
provides him with "candid advice on what he is not doing 
right."  Singh pointed out that this is a "South Asian 
problem" rather than a Pakistani problem, as Indira Gandhi 
was also surrounded by sycophants. 
 
Graceful Conclusion 
------------------- 
 
13.  (C) A/S Rocca concluded by noting that Singh should 
receive considerable credit for starting the current process 
of improved India/US relations.  Singh demurred, maintaining 
that the credit was not quite deserved, as "individuals 
become symbols for developments."  Two great nations came to 
the point where things had to happen, and "I was there by 
chance," he said. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14.  (C) The meeting was significant for the things that 
Singh did not say as much as for the things he did.  During 
the past month, BJP leaders have strongly criticized the US, 
the Modi visa denial, and the Secretary's South Asia 
initiative for a number of reasons, but Singh ignored them 
completely.  He also focused almost exclusively on the 
military side of the Initiative, speaking at length on the 
potential benefits of military co-production, but made no 
mention of the civilian components or the US offer of F-16's 
to Pakistan.  It was also notable, that unlike others in the 
BJP, Singh expressed no hostility towards Pakistan, and was 
positive about the GOI's Pakistan policy.  Not surprisingly, 
he reserved his greatest criticism of the UPA government for 
its handling of its ties with Washington, suggesting that a 
BJP government would manage them much better.  Nonetheless, 
in view of the recent strong criticism of the US by BJP 
second and third tier leaders, Singh concluded that the 
India/US relationship was gaining momentum and could soon 
pass the point of no return. 
 
15,  (U) A/S Rocca cleared this cable. 
BLAKE