US embassy cable - 05GABORONE554

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000554 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S DIFFILY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BC, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: BNF PRESIDENT HOPES FOR OPPOSITION COOPERATION 
 
 
1. (U)  Summary:  In an April 1 meeting, Otsweletse Moupo, 
president of Botswana's largest opposition party, the 
Botswana National Front (BNF), shared with Ambassador Huggins 
his commitment to cooperation with other opposition parties 
in the next general election, scheduled for 2009.  Moupo 
noted that while support for the ruling Botswana Democratic 
Party (BDP) is declining, the BDP has a number of advantages, 
including an effective organizational structure, strong ties 
with traditional leaders, substantial corporate sponsorship, 
and popular association with public welfare programs. 
Consequently, opposition parties face a formidable challenge 
in unseating the current government.  End Summary. 
 
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COMMITTED TO OPPOSITION COOPERATION 
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2. (U)  In an April 1 meeting in Selebi-Phikwe, Otsweletse 
Moupo, President of the Botswana National Front, shared with 
Ambassador Huggins his commitment to cooperation between the 
opposition parties in the 2009 electoral campaign.  According 
to Moupo, the Pact formed by the BNF, Botswana's largest 
opposition party, with two smaller parties, the Botswana 
Alliance Movement (BAM) and Botswana People's Party (BPP), to 
contest the 2004 elections failed, due to lack of grassroots 
organizational work.  Had the Pact been established earlier, 
the parties would have had sufficient time to build awareness 
and support for this strategy, he opined.  As it was, 
candidates who were asked to step down to make the way for 
the agreed-upon Pact candidate resisted to the point of 
defecting to other parties.  By starting now, the BNF could 
bring the second largest opposition party, the Botswana 
Congress Party (BCP), into the fold and iron out the 
differences well in advance of the next election. 
 
3. (U)  Attitudinal change will be the biggest challenge in 
pursuing opposition cooperation.  A bitter split between the 
BCP and BNF in 1998, that literally degenerated into 
fisticuffs, followed by the New Democratic Front's split from 
the BNF in 2003, means that trust among opposition parties is 
low.  Moupo recognized the need to reverse this situation, 
starting by putting an end to public attacks on one another 
and efforts to develop a common message.  He condemned the 
tendency of some in the BNF to adopt a "big brother" attitude 
toward the competition that would marginalize other parties 
rather than build a working relationship among them. 
 
4. (U)  While sentiment in favor of opposition cooperation 
has gained momentum after the October 2004 elections, the 
parties have not reached any agreement on how to implement 
this strategy.  Moupo dismissed the option of merging the 
opposition groups into one umbrella party.  Abandoning 
existing organizational structures and the identity of each 
party's "brand", he said, would weaken their ability to 
campaign effectively.  Moreover, opposition parties differ on 
some policy issues.  Attempting to amalgamate would increase, 
rather than reduce, discord within the opposition. 
 
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BNF VISION:  "SOCIAL DEMOCRACY" 
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5. (U)  Moupo described the BNF's vision of Botswana as a 
social democracy.  Economically, this translates into 
attracting foreign investment, in part through privatization, 
while retaining state involvement in key areas of the 
economy, such as water and energy.  The BNF, he said, 
advocates increasing government's accountability to the 
public through amending the constitution to allow for direct 
election of the president and by passing a freedom of 
information act. 
 
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UNSEATING BDP AN UPHILL BATTLE 
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6. (U)  Although the BDP's share of the popular vote is 
declining, Moupo named several factors that enable it to 
remain in power.  The winner-takes-all electoral system, he 
pointed out, builds under-representation of smaller parties 
into the political system.  Control of state-owned media, 
substantial backing from the corporate world, and a strong 
alliance with traditional chiefs, aid the BDP in marshalling 
support.  In light of the tendency to credit the BDP for 
state-run social welfare programs, the BNF and other 
opposition parties have identified political education of the 
electorate as a key step in leveling the political playing 
field. 
 
7. (U)  Internal challenges further complicate this picture 
for the BNF.  The party has suffered from years of financial 
mismanagement and faces the loss of a plot allocated to it by 
the government years ago because of the failure to develop 
it.  Poor leadership had rendered lines of communication 
within the party chaotic.  As a consequence, the BNF 
struggles with maintaining discipline.  Moupo and his 
colleagues have begun to address this situation but have 
plenty yet to accomplish 
 
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COMMENT 
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8. (U)  In contrast to other leaders of the BNF, Moupo has 
both the personal style and practical outlook of a successful 
politician.  Members of the BNF are likely to reelect him 
president at its biannual party congress in July this year, 
but they are as likely to elect some diehard leftist 
ideologues to the party's central committee as well, who 
could derail plans to work with the Botswana Congress Party. 
The true test of his leadership will be in convincing his 
senior party colleagues to adopt a pragmatic approach to 
public policy and a realistic plan for opposition cooperation 
in 2009. 
HUGGINS