US embassy cable - 89PRAGUE8343

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 08343 
 
BRUSSELS FOR USEC - AMBASSADOR NILES 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO ERIKA SCHLAGER CSCE COMMISSION 
USIA FOR EU (OLASON, PENDERGRAST, JORIA); INFO DD 
(KNOPP), C(PISTOR) 
 
E.O. 12356:  N/A 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, CSCE, CZ 
SUBJECT:  CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S QUIET REVOLUTION AND ITS 
          PROSPECTS 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY.  CZECHOSLVOAKIA'S "QUIET" 
REVOLUTION, WITH THE CIVIC FORUM IN ITS 
VANGUARD, HAS REALLY ONLY JUST BEGUN, BUT IT 
HAS REACHED AN IMPORTANT MILESTONE IN FORCING 
THE REGIME TO ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE.  THE FORUM'S 
REPRESENTATIVES DO NOT  UNDERESTIMATE THE LONG 
FIGHT AHEAD BEFORE THE LEGAL AND TACTICAL 
ROADBLOCKS THE CPCZ WILL PUT IN THE WAY OF 
ACHIEVING SUCH GOALS AS FREE ELECTIONS CAN BE 
OVERCOME AND THE PRESENT TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM 
CAN BE  GRADUALLY TRANSFORMED INTO A 
PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
A NON-VIOLENT REVOLUTION 
------------------------ 
 
3.  WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA OVER 
THE PAST 12 DAYS IS NOTHING SHORT OF A POPULAR 
REVOLUTION, BUT A NON-VIOLENT ONE.  IT IS A 
REVOLUTION SPARKED BY STUDENTS AND ARTISTS IN 
REACTION TO THE BRUTAL SUPPRESSION ON NOVEMBER 
17 OF A STUDENT DEMONSTRATION AND THEN JOINED 
BY WORKERS AND THE GREAT MASS OF THE PEOPLE. 
LIKE THE PRAGUE SPRING OF 1968, THIS REVOLUTION 
HAS ITS ROOTS IN THE GRADUAL LOSS OF FEAR BY 
THE MAN IN THE STREET OF REGIME REPRESSION, 
BUT DIFFERS FROM 1968 IN THAT IT ORIGINATED 
FROM WITHIN THE YOUNGER GENERATION AND NOT SO 
MUCH FROM REFORM ELEMENTS WITHIN THE CPCZ.  IT 
THUS IS MORE OF A REJECTION OF THE 41 YEARS 
OF THE COUNTRY'S COMMUNIST PAST. 
 
THE FORUM:  A LOOSE COALITION 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  BUT IF THIS REVOLUTION BEGAN SPONTANEOUSLY, ITS 
POPULAR FOCAL POINT QUICKLY BECAME THE "CIVIC FORUM," 
SYMBOLIZED BY PLAYWRIGHT VACLAV HAVEL.  THE FORUM 
HAS ARTICULATED POPULAR DEMANDS BUT DECLINED BECOMING 
A POLITICAL PARTY.  ITS GREATEST SUCCESS, SO FAR, HAS BEEN 
IN MOBILIZING MASS DEMONSTRATIONS AND SUPPORT FOR A 
GENERAL STRIKE.  THESE TOPPLED THE OLD COMMUNIST 
PARTY LEADERSHIP AND FORCED THE GOVERNMENT (AND THE 
PARTY STANDING BEHIND IT) RELUCTANTLY INTO A DIALOGUE. 
 
5.  THE FORUM'S REPRESENTATIVES ARE CAREFUL NOT TO 
EXAGGERATE THE CONCESSIONS, SPECIFICALLY AN END TO 
THE LEGAL BASIS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY'S "LEADING 
ROLE," THAT THIS DIALOGUE HAS PRODUCED UP TO NOW. 
THE FORUM'S OBJECTIVES ARE MUCH BROADER.  IT WANTS 
NOTHING LESS THAN TO PREPARE THE GROUNDWORK FOR FREE 
ELECTIONS AND CONVERSION OF THE PRESENT 
TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM TO DEMOCRACY.  IT IS OBVIOUS THAT 
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE REGIME TO ACHIEVE THIS HAVE ONLY 
BEGUN; THAT THEY WILL BE COMPLEX.  EVEN AFTER THE 
GOVERNMENT PRODUCES A NEW COALITION OF "EXPERTS" ON 
DECEMBER 3 AS PRIME MINISTER ADAMEC HAS PROMISED, THE 
FORUM EXPECTS DELAYING TACTICS, PROVOCATIONS AND 
ATTEMPTS TO PLAY ON ITS INTERNAL DIVISIONS. 
 
6.  THOSE DIVISIONS ARE VERY REAL.  REPRESENTED WITHIN 
THE FORUM ARE POLITICAL GROUPINGS THAT RANGE FROM 
REFORM COMMUNIST (THE RENEWAL GROUP) TO LIBERAL 
(THE DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVE).  SLOVAKS ARE REPRESENTED 
BY THEIR OWN SEPARATE PRO-DEMOCRACY ORGANIZATION, 
THE PUBLIC AGAINST VIOLENCE.  STUDENT GROUPS WHICH 
BEGAN THE STRIKE FOR CHANGE SEEM IRRITATED THAT THE 
FORUM HAS TAKEN OVER THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT 
FROM THEM.  WORKERS, AFTER FLEXING THEIR MUSCLES IN THE 
NOVEMBER 27 GENERAL STRIKE, SEEM READIER TO SUPPORT 
MORE INDUSTRIAL ACTION THAN THE INTELLECTUALS AND 
PROFESSIONALS HEADING THE FORUM. 
 
7.  THE FORUM IS TRYING TO PLAY THESE DIVISIONS DOWN 
BY EMPHASIZING ITS TRANSITIONAL, NON-POLITICAL 
CHARACTER AND BY KEEPING ITS SUPPORTERS' ATTENTION 
ON ITS LONGER TERM GOALS FOR SOCIETY:  A MIXED 
ECONOMY, A PLURALISTIC POLITICAL SYSTEM AND 
CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S INTEGRATION INTO WESTERN EUROPE. 
INTERESTINGLY, THE FORUM'S SEVEN CHAPTER PROGRAM 
STATEMENT (PRAGUE 8312) NOT ONCE MENTIONS THE WORD 
"SOCIALISM." 
 
THE COMMUNIST PARTY, DOWN BUT NOT OUT 
------------------------------------- 
 
8.  IN LESS THAN TWO WEEKS OF THIS REVOLUTION, THE 
CPCZ' AUTHORITY AND CONTROL OF SOCIETY HAS BEEN 
ENORMOUSLY ERODED.  INTERNAL SPLITS HAVE DEVELOPED. 
A REFORM-MINDED PARTY GROUP HAS SET UP THE 
"DEMOCRATIC FORUM," CALLING FOR A RE-EVALUATION OF 
1968 AND RE-ADMISSION OF PURGED PRAGUE SPRING 
FIGURES.  THE ELIMINATION OF PARTY CONTROL OVER THE 
MEDIA HAS BEEN DRAMATIC, AS TELEVISION AND RADIO NEWS- 
CASTERS OVERNIGHT BEGAN TO FUNCTION LIKE THEIR 
WESTERN COUNTERPARTS.  THE PARTY HAS FORESWORN USE 
OF FORCE IN A CENTRAL COMMITTEE RESOLUTION, THOUGH 
QUALIFYING THIS COMMITMENT BY REFERRING TO A NEED 
TO DEFEND LIFE, PROPERTY AND "THE FUNDAMENTALS OF 
SOCIALISM." 
 
9.  ALTHOUGH REELING, THE PARTY IS NOT A SPENT 
FORCE, HOWEVER, AND IT WILL NOT WILLINGLY 
COMMIT POLITICAL SUICIDE BY MOVING TO FREE 
ELECTIONS.  IN A SPEECH ON NOVEMBER 28, THE 
NEW GENERAL SECRETARY KAREL URBANEK HAS CALLED 
ON HIS CADRES TO GO ON THE OFFENSIVE AND SEEK 
TO REGAIN CONTROL OF THE NOW LARGELY REFORM- 
MINDED MEDIA.  HE HAS REJECTED RECENT CALLS BY 
THE FORUM TO ABOLISH THE PEOPLE'S MILITIA, 
REMOVE PARTY FIGURES AS FACTORY MANAGERS AND 
ELIMINATE BASIC PARTY ORGANIZATIONS IN 
ENTERPRISES.  URBANEK PLANS TO TRAVEL TO MOSCOW 
IN EARLY DECEMBER AND WILL CERTAINLY BE SEEKING 
SOME SIGN OF GORBACHEV'S SUPPORT FOR HIS PARTY 
AND ITS FUTURE. 
 
10.  DESPITE ITS DISARRAY, THE CPCZ STILL HOLDS 
SOME STRONG CARDS.  THE PARTY STILL DOMINATES 
IMPORTANT SOCIETAL INSTITUTIONS, INCLUDING THE 
SECURITY FORCES, AND STILL IS THE PREDOMINANT 
FORCE IN THE NATIONAL FRONT, AND WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE SO EVEN AFTER ITS LEGAL BASIS FOR THAT 
CONTROL IS ELIMINATED.  IT IS NO ACCIDENT THAT 
THE REGIME HAS CHOSEN THE FRONT AS THE FRAMEWORK 
FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE CIVIC FORUM, THEREBY 
TRYING TO PRESENT THE FORUM AS THE "OPPOSITION" 
TO ESTABLISHED, PARTY-CONTROLLED INSTITUTIONS. 
 
 
WHERE THE REVOLUTION IS HEADED 
------------------------------ 
 
11.  VALTR KOMAREK, AN ECONOMIST TOUTED BY SOME AS 
POSSIBLE MINISTERIAL CANDIDATE IN A NEW COALITION 
GOVERNMENT, WAS ASKED THIS WEEK HOW LONG IT WOULD 
TAKE CZECHOSLOVAKIA TO CONVERT INTO A WESTERN-STYLE 
DEMOCRACY.  HE RESPONDED THAT THE COUNTRY DID NOT NEED 
TO RECEIVE DEMOCRACY IN DRIBS AND DRABS; THE PEOPLE 
COULD SWALLOW IT WHOLE.  IF THE COMMUNISTS CAN BE 
FORCED TO LET THE COUNTRY'S LAWS AND INSTITUTIONS 
CONFORM TO THE PEOPLE'S WILL, HE SAID, CZECHOSLOVAKIA 
COULD RESUME ITS REFORMIST, DEMOCRATIC TRADITIONS 
ALMOST OVERNIGHT.  THAT IS AN ASSESSMENT THE 
EMBASSY SHARES. 
 
 
12.  THE  BRAKE ON THIS TRANSITION WILL BE THE 
ONE APPLIED BY THE PRESENT REGIME'S LEADERSHIP AS 
IT MANEUVERS TO DELAY THE DATE OF REFORMS, 
PARTICULARLY FREE ELECTIONS.  THE REGIME HAS A NUMBER 
OF ROADBLOCKS, POLITICAL AND LEGAL, IT CAN PUT IN THE 
WAY.  AS GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE SOCIALIST PARTY, 
JAN SKODA, HAS POINTED OUT TO US, MOVING UP THE 
DATE OF ELECTIONS WILL REQUIRE A TWO-THIRDS VOTE 
OF THE FEDERAL ASSEMBLY.  THIS IS SOMETHING THE 
ASSEMBLY, A MAJORITY OF WHOSE MEMBERS ARE COMMUNIST 
AND LIKELY TO BE VOTED OUT, MAY  BE UNREADY TO AGREE 
TO.  HOWEVER, THE CZECH AND SLOVAK TENDENCY TOWARDS 
CONSENSUS AND LOSS OF LEGITIMACY BY THE CPCZ 
HIERARCHY SUGGEST THAT PARLIAMENTARIANS AS WELL 
AS OTHER FUNCTIONARIES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO 
SHOW "REFORMIST" COLORS. 
 
13.  QUICK ELECTIONS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN THE CIVIC 
FORUM'S INTEREST.  MANY OF THE POLITICAL GROUPS IT 
REPRESENTS ARE ONLY IN AN EMBRYONIC STATE AND WILL 
NEED MORE TIME TO ORGANIZE.  IN THE MEANTIME, AS 
THE FORUM'S LIST OF DEMANDS SUBMITTED TO ADAMEC ON 
NOVEMBER 28 (SEPTEL) INDICATES, IT WILL FOCUS ON 
THE PERSONNEL AND LEGAL CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM 
NECESSARY TO ASSURE A SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION 
TOWARDS DEMOCRACY. 
 
 
RUSSELL