US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM772

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000772 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: 4/20/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TZ 
SUBJECT: Zanzibar's Voter Registration Crisis:  the 
Diplomatic Group Responds 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 732,  B) Dar es Salaam 711, C) 
Dar es Salaam 551, D)Dar es Salaam 538 
 
1. (C) Summary: As voter registration on Zanzibar 
enters its final week, evidence continues to mount 
that government interference with the registration 
process is blatant, deliberate and sufficiently 
widespread to affect electoral outcomes.  Opposition 
supporters who have been denied registration include 
the CUF party candidate for President of Zanzibar, 
Seif Sharif Hamad.  On April 15, a group of donor 
country diplomats who have assisted Zanzibar's voter 
registration project met to discuss next steps to 
salvage the integrity of the voters register.  The 
diplomatic group drew up a list of talking points that 
emphasized support for the Zanzibar Electoral 
Commission (ZEC), and respect for the legally 
established procedures for voter registration.  During 
the week of April 18-22, teams of diplomats from the 
group will deliver this message to a cross section of 
top political leaders, urging them to allow the ZEC to 
proceed with voter registration without interference. 
End Summary. 
 
Widespread Disregard for Registration Procedures 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2. (U) On April 15, the domestic election observation 
NGO "TEMCO," circulated its most recent report on 
Zanzibar's voter registration, confirming persistent, 
widespread disregard for the legal voter registration 
procedures in Zanzibar's populous Urban West Region. 
TEMCO's report is consistent with the problems that 
diplomatic observers, including emboff, had seen the 
previous week in Urban West.  (Please see Reftel B for 
a detailed discussion.)  By law, the highest ranking 
ZEC official at a center determines who is eligible to 
register.  Local government administrators, called 
"shehas" may advise the ZEC officials, but the sheha 
have no legal authority to refuse registration to 
anybody. 
 
3. (U) TEMCO noted that in many centers, however, the 
sheha alone decided who was eligible to register, in 
contravention of the law.  TEMCO and the diplomatic 
observers saw many people turned away from the centers 
without having the opportunity even to speak with an 
official from the ZEC, or to file a "form 2-D" 
documenting the refusal.  Without this form, no 
individual can appeal the refusal to higher levels of 
the ZEC or to the courts.  This massive disregard for 
legal registration procedures is occurring against a 
background of increasing violence and intimidation. 
In several incidents, armed thugs have beaten people 
who were waiting outside registration centers.  Arson 
attacks on homes and factories have proliferated since 
registration began in Urban West. 
 
Disenfranchisement of the Opposition 
------------------------------------ 
 
4. (U) TEMCO coordinator Rwekaza Mukandala and many 
other observers conclude that the shehas are acting on 
instructions from their superiors in the Zanzibar 
government to limit registration by members of the 
opposition CUF party.  On April 14, the CUF Secretary 
General and candidate for the Presidency of Zanzibar, 
Seif Sharif Hamad was himself refused registration, on 
the grounds that he had not resided continuously on 
Zanzibar for the requisite 36 months.  (Hamad 
maintains a house on Zanzibar, but he also spends 
considerable time in Dar or traveling overseas, as do 
most political leaders.)  CUF held a mass rally in Dar 
es Salaam April 16, to protest problems with 
registration.  Hamad told the rally that the CUF had 
lost all confidence in the ZEC's ability to conduct 
free and fair elections next October, and that CUF 
agents would tabulate election results independently 
and announce them without waiting for the ZEC.  The 
CUF party claims that 32,000 of its supporters have 
been denied registration in Urban West.  While we 
cannot confirm this figure independently, TEMCO's 
observations suggest that it might not be far from the 
mark. 
 
The Diplomatic Group's Strategy 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) On April 15, UNDP Resident Representative John 
Hendra convened Heads of Diplomatic Missions 
representing the donors that are supporting the 
Zanzibari electoral process.  Charge Chris Stillman 
represented the US Embassy; the UK, Netherlands, 
Canada, Norway, Sweden, Germany and the EU also sent 
representatives.  The diplomats' consensus was that 
the credibility of Zanzibar's Permanent Voters 
Registry, and ultimately the election, was in 
jeopardy.  The diplomats thought that the ZEC was 
competent and committed to conducting free and fair 
elections.  Given a free hand, and perhaps a bit more 
time to make up for lost ground, the ZEC could yet 
salvage the integrity of the voters register.  The ZEC 
could succeed in doing so, however, only if top 
leaders in the Zanzibar government could be persuaded 
to halt what looks very much like a concerted campaign 
to manipulate voter registration. 
 
6. (C) Following the pattern established during 
previous difficulties with voter registration, the 
diplomats agreed on common message, then decided which 
political leaders needed to hear it.  The diplomat's 
eleven-point message can be summarized as follows:  we 
support the ZEC in its endeavor to establish a 
credible voter register, and we urge all other parties 
to refrain from interfering with the ZEC. The message 
urges all stakeholders to show restraint and to 
discourage violence. 
 
7. (C) On April 19, the High Commissioners from the UK 
and Canada planned a series of meetings on Zanzibar, 
to be followed by a previously planned meeting between 
the Nordic Ambassadors and Zanzibar President Karume 
on April 20.  During these meetings, the diplomats 
will approach Zanzibari government leaders who are 
part of the problem:   Karume, Chief Minister Nahodha, 
Acting Minister for Good Governance Shamhuna, and CCM 
Treasurer (and Karume brother in law) Mansoor Himid. 
They will also approach political leaders who are 
potentially part of the solution, including Tanzanian 
Home Affairs Minister Mapuri (a Zanzibari who helped 
negotiate the original Muafaka Accord) the Secretaries 
General of both the CCM and the CUF parties, and ZEC 
Chairman Masauni.  On April 21, the diplomatic group 
will re-convene to assess the situation, and decide if 
the timing is right to take their concerns to the 
highest level, President Mkapa.  After May 4, when the 
ruling CCM party announces its candidate for the 
Presidency, the Diplomatic Group may also seek a 
meeting with the nominee to emphasize the importance 
of credible elections on Zanzibar. 
 
8. (C) For the week of April 18-22, while voter 
registration continues on Zanzibar and while CCM 
leaders focus on their internal campaign, the 
diplomats' message will be urgent, but private.  For 
now, the Diplomatic Group will refrain from press 
releases, cancellation of assistance programs or any 
other threatened sanctions that could provoke a 
backlash or strengthen CCM hardliners.   The consensus 
among the Diplomatic Group was that the ZEC would have 
a better chance to do its work to salvage the register 
if the CCM hardliners were given room to back down 
without a loss of face. 
 
9. (C) During their discussions with Tanzanian 
political leaders, the Diplomatic Group will draw on 
the following eleven points: 
 
-- As supporters of the Muafaka, we come as "Friends 
of Zanzibar" and indeed as Friends of Tanzania. 
 
-- The Diplomatic Group is extremely concerned about 
aspects of the ongoing registration process, 
especially actions by Shehas that appear to have 
denied large numbers of people the opportunity to 
register, and about indications of multiple 
registration in some areas. 
 
-- A credible voters register is critical to the 
conduct of a peaceful and credible election on 
Zanzibar. 
 
-- Peaceful and credible elections are fundamental to 
maintaining stability in Zanzibar. 
 
-- If the elections are not peaceful and credible, 
there could be serious consequences affecting 
Zanzibar's economy, including tourism. 
 
-- The Diplomatic Group is concerned that the ZEC be 
enabled to uphold the credibility of the registration 
process and to ensure the integrity of the Permanent 
Voters Register. 
 
-- The Diplomatic Group is seriously concerned about 
the increase in elections-related violence, and by the 
provocative actions by all sides, and strongly urges 
all sides to act and speak with restraint. 
 
-- The Diplomatic Group encourages dialogue among all 
political parties, and urges that the Secretary 
Generals' Committee be re-activated as a forum for 
inter-party dialogue. 
 
-- While the Shehas have a role in the electoral 
process, it is of utmost importance that they fulfill 
their stipulated roles and responsibilities in strict 
accordance with the electoral laws. 
 
-- The ZEC has considerable technical competence and 
an impressive record of accomplishments to date.  The 
ZEC must be allowed to undertake its responsibilities 
in an impartial manner, and to do its job free of 
political interference and intimidation. 
 
-- Every opportunity must be found to ensure that all 
eligible voters who wish to register are able to do 
so. 
 
STILLMAN