US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2925

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002925 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, IN, BG, NP, PK, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: NARAYANAN WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL AND BANGLADESH, 
PLEASED WITH MUSHARRAF VISIT 
 
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Meeting with SA A/S Rocca and Charge on 
April 18, Indian NSA MK Narayanan expressed concern about 
trends in Nepal and Bangladesh.  On Nepal, the King had no 
policy to restore democracy or defeat the Maoists, which 
worried New Delhi because the insurgents were becoming more 
aggressive.  The US, UK and India had to ensure that the King 
received the same message.  Narayanan described Bangladesh as 
"on the precipice," as a result of poor governance, the 
growth of Islamist influence, and the crisis in the Awami 
League.  The NSA characterized the just-concluded visit of 
President Musharraf to India as a "great love-love 
situation," commenting that the PM has concluded he can do 
business with Musharraf.  Nevertheless, there was a "certain 
fragility" to the peace process, which a major terrorist 
attack could seriously set back.  In such an event, India 
would have to conclude that the perpetrators had state 
backing, given continuing evidence of ISID support for 
terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan.  See Septel for 
US-India issues.  End Summary. 
 
Nepal: King has no Policy 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Leading off with a brief discussion on Nepal, 
Narayanan expressed exasperation that the King had done so 
little to restore democracy.  New Delhi had seen little to 
indicate that the Palace has a policy either on democracy or 
to defeat the Maoists.  The King seemed to be banking on the 
fact that the US, UK and India would bail him out if the 
Maoists became too strong.  The Maoists had become more 
aggressive of late, and a better strategy was needed to 
counter them.  The NSA emphasized the need to "play it 
carefully" with the King, adding that the US, UK and GOI must 
continue working closely together to ensure that the King 
received the same message from each government. 
 
Bangladesh: "On the Precipice" 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Describing Bangladesh as "on the precipice," the NSA 
said rural areas were becoming "badly saturated by radical 
Islamist forces," which presented a major challenge to 
fragile democratic structures and moderate Muslims.  The OIJ 
had become very influential, and Jamaat was "feeling very, 
very strong."  Meanwhile, the Awami League was in crisis -- 
losing its best people, offering no opposition to the 
governing BNP coalition, and unable to decide what to do 
next.  New Delhi had little leverage with the current 
government, and what pressure it was able to exert was 
difficult to maintain, he stated. 
 
4.  (C) Narayanan expressed particular concern about the 
state of the Bangladeshi intellectual class, which had 
formerly enjoyed vigorous interaction with counterparts in 
India.  The Chief Minister of West Bengal had related to him 
recently that he had not heard for months from the 
Bangladeshi poets and writers with whom he had had regular 
contact for decades, concluding that they have been "almost 
totally silenced."  This was "unnerving and could lead to a 
black hole."  The recent assassination of former Finance 
Minister AMS Kibria "had a chilling effect on state 
structures, which are being hijacked."  The 
Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) terrorist group was 
"becoming one of the worst in Asia," and "very deeply 
involved" in India's Northeast, the NSA stated. 
 
Pleased with Musharraf Visit 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) On a positive note, Narayanan described the 
just-concluded visit of President Musharraf to India as a 
"great love-love situation," joking that if it continues, "a 
lot of my former colleagues (in the Intelligence Bureau) will 
be out of a job."  On Kashmir, the Pakistani President "went 
with the flow, giving no deadlines for progress and 
indicating that Islamabad seems able to "live with the 
script."  During a meeting with the Editors Guild, Musharraf 
went so far as to almost repeat the PM's language on the 
importance of economics and the opportunities to reach a 
lasting peace in South Asia. 
 
6.  (C) The NSA said PM Manmohan Singh has concluded that he 
can do business with Musharraf, but that there was a "certain 
fragility" to the peace process.  One major terrorist attack 
could set back relations seriously.  In such a case, the 
opposition would be up in arms against the government for 
trusting Musharraf, and the people would not accept it if 
Musharraf were to argue that he had no control over the 
jihadis involved.  Given the extent of ISID support for the 
jihadi infrastructure in Pakistan, which continues to exist, 
India finds it very difficult to separate state actors from 
non-state actors.  In the event of such an attack, New Delhi 
would have to conclude that the Pakistan government were 
involved.  This concern about a major terrorist attack was 
the only caveat the PM had expressed about Musharraf's visit, 
the NSA stressed, adding that in such an case, "we will come 
to you if we need help."  A/S Rocca responded by recalling 
that the Secretary, during her March 16 visit to New Delhi, 
had pledged to continue pressure on Pakistan regarding 
cross-border terrorism. 
 
India Still Considering Equipment Offer 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Emphasizing USG interest in the safety of the 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus, A/S Rocca reminded Narayanan of 
our outstanding April 1 offer of explosive detection 
equipment to help protect the bus service.  The NSA indicated 
that he was aware of the issue, but did not know where the 
matter stood in the bureaucracy.  He appreciated the offer, 
commenting that "we live in mortal dread of something 
happening to the bus," and said he would check on it. 
 
8.  (U) A/S Rocca cleared this cable. 
BLAKE