US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS1542

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001542 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EAID, MASS, CH, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: Gymnich Takes No Decision on China Arms, 
Confirms Views on Mid-East and Frozen Conflicts 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) The EU's informal "Gymnich" meeting of 
foreign ministers sought to place the EU-China 
relationship in a broader context, but the arms 
embargo issue loomed over the discussion.  A Council 
staffer told us a consensus still exists within the 
EU to work on the issue, but a majority of member 
states feel there is no hurry on making a decision. 
Some Member States also argued no EU decision should 
be made until they see how the upcoming "strategic 
dialogue" with the US and Japan on China goes.  In 
discussions on Belarus and "frozen conflicts" in the 
former Soviet Union, the EU stuck with an 
"incremental" approach, in part to avoid provoking 
Moscow -- thus, no change to the EU's cautious 
approach on a Georgia border-monitoring mission.  On 
the Middle East, despite an internal discussion 
paper designed to provoke new thinking on how to 
promote reform, we were told little new came out of 
the debate, other than an intention to 
"reinvigorate" the EU's Barcelona Process at its 
tenth anniversary in November.  Luxembourg FM 
Asselborn also announced the EU would host an 
international conference on Iraq in June (assuming 
the Iraqi government requests such a meeting), but 
said the content of the conference would only be 
discussed by EUFMs at the next GAERC meeting on 
April 25.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CHINA 
----- 
 
2. (U) Lux FM Jean Asselborn told the press the 
Gymnich discussion focused on the growing importance 
of China in the world, especially its increased 
economic role as a result of continued internal 
market reform and unprecedented growth.  Asselborn 
said there was no decision on the arms embargo; and 
none had been expected at a Gymnich.  But he 
admitted that the fact the issue was still being 
debated was a sign that no consensus had been 
reached within the EU to lift the embargo. The 
Luxembourg Presidency would continue to prepare for 
a lifting, but several items still needed to be 
resolved. 
 
3. (U) The EU will continue to work on the Code of 
Conduct and Toolbox with a view towards taking a 
decision, but other criteria also count, e.g., human 
rights, regional stability, and the "national 
security of friendly or allied nations."  He 
stressed the issue was not being considered in a 
vacuum.  The EU expressed concern over China's anti- 
secession law and rising tensions with Japan. 
Asselborn also noted the importance of the EU-China 
dialogue on human rights begun in 1995 and said the 
results of the last meeting in February were "not 
negative."  But there remains a need for better 
relations in many areas, including ratification of 
the International Covenant on Civil and Political 
Rights; the Chinese said this would happen "in the 
near future", but that could mean a year from now. 
If it were done during the Luxembourg Presidency 
that would be helpful, he declared.  Asselborn said 
he raised the issue of remaining Tiananmen prisoners 
with the Chinese FM two weeks ago.  Commissioner 
Ferrero-Waldner stressed the EU-China relationship 
involved much more than simply the issue of the arms 
embargo.  She also noted the U.S. and EU have agreed 
to begin a "balanced and symmetrical" strategic 
dialogue related to stability and cooperation in 
Asia. 
 
4. (SBU) According to a Council staffer involved in 
the Gymnich, the essential outcome of the EUFMs' 
discussion of the arms embargo was that a consensus 
still exists within the EU to work on the issue, but 
a majority of member states now make the point that 
there is no hurry on a decision, and it doesn't 
really matter whether it happens "in the next few 
months or in a couple of years." 
 
5. (SBU) French FM Barnier still took the line the 
embargo should be lifted, but even he acknowledged 
the context was not headed in the right direction. 
Dutch FM Bot told Dutch press that the embargo was 
further away from being lifted than at any point 
since when it was first raised in December 2003.  A 
Danish reporter said FM Stig Moller reported that 
the momentum was going heavily against a lift (and 
reportedly said that France and Luxembourg were 
about the only ones making very sympathetic noises 
about lifting; with the Dutch, Czechs, Brits, Danes 
and Portuguese among the most negative).  One 
diplomat told us Czech FM Svoboda took the line 
that, with the political dialogue with the US 
beginning, it only made sense to wait and see how 
these talks go before taking the issue up again. 
They garnered some support for this approach, but 
not consensus.  Several FMs noted the subject was 
almost certain to be on the June 16 European Council 
agenda, regardless of developments, since the 
December 2004 European Council Conclusions had set 
that date as a target. 
 
CAUCASUS AND BELARUS 
-------------------- 
 
6. (U) Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner stressed that 
the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) must include 
efforts to address the "frozen conflicts".  She told 
the press the EU is discussing how to assist Georgia 
in a border-monitoring mission, either via an ESDP 
operation or jointly with others in an OSCE 
operation.  In either case, no decision was taken at 
the Gymnich, beyond confirmation of previous 
decisions to add three staff to the EU special 
envoy's office. Ferrero-Waldner noted that the EU 
understood Georgia's "legitimate concern to maintain 
an international presence", but also hoped Georgia 
and Russia could come to some agreement. 
 
7. (SBU) Council staffers told us the general EU 
consensus is to take a very "incremental" approach 
in Georgia, starting with beefing up EU envoy 
Talvitie's operation.  EUFMs discussed the relative 
merits of an EU vs. OSCE operation, but, either way, 
some member states are still nervous about provoking 
Moscow.  While some - Lithuania was named - want to 
be more responsive to Georgian requests, they cannot 
muster a consensus.  The EU is watching with 
interest whether an OSCE training mission may 
happen.  The Luxembourg Presidency's  communique on 
the South Caucasus said little, other than to note 
the region will again be on the agenda at the April 
25 GAERC.  A concluding luncheon on the OSCE 
produced nothing more than warm words of support for 
the organization. 
 
8. (U) On Belarus, in a written statement EUFMs 
expressed concern about a political situation that 
has not seen "even the slightest improvement."  The 
EU wants to support civil society, and continues to 
investigate how the EU can influence the situation 
in the country.  Ferrero-Waldner said the EU wished 
to help with a variety of projects with NGOs and 
civil society, but was not looking to isolate low- 
level Belarus officials entirely.  She added the EU 
was ready to establish a mission in Belarus, run 
from Kiev. 
 
MIDDLE EAST AND IRAQ 
-------------------- 
 
9. (SBU) An internal discussion paper by the 
Luxembourg Presidency and Council Secretariat (copy 
faxed to EUR/ERA) proposed a list of questions for 
FMs to consider, including whether the EU should 
coordinate with the US on promoting reform, whether 
the EU should engage with "Islamic faith based civil 
society", and "what collective security architecture 
can be envisaged" that could help stabilize the 
region.  But a Council staffer told us the actual 
discussion among EUFMs broke no new ground.  We have 
not seen or heard of any statements on the MEPP 
coming out of the Gymnich, despite advance reports 
that the meeting might issue a statement on Gaza 
withdrawal.  The EUFMs' main focus reportedly was on 
"reinvigorating" the Barcelona process via a Euro- 
Med ministerial in Luxembourg on May 30, and at its 
tenth anniversary summit in Barcelona in November. 
On Iraq, Asselborn announced Luxembourg is planning 
- "if the Iraqis request it" - to hold an 
international conference on Iraq in Brussels in 
early June.  We understand the Gymnich did not 
discuss this initiative, but the Luxembourg 
Presidency will brief members about plans for the 
conference at the April 25 GAERC. 
 
MCKINLEY