US embassy cable - 05QUITO852

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000852 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS TO USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: POLITICAL SITUATION UPDATE 
 
REF: QUITO 842 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The political situation remains fluid in 
the wake of President Lucio Gutierrez' lifting of the state 
of emergency.  In an emergency session on April 17, Congress 
unanimously revoked its December 2004 reorganization of the 
Supreme Court and adjourned until April 19, when it is 
expected to debate how to choose a new Court. 
Anti-government protests occurred on April 17 and are 
expected to continue.  In Guayaquil and surrounding 
provinces, Mayor Jaime Nebot has organized a mobile protest 
on April 18 in defense of democracy; pro-government marches 
will also take place today.  Ex-president Abdala Bucaram, a 
destabilizing force, has been vocal in his defense of the 
president.  Quito opposition leaders have called for 
Gutierrez's resignation and possible impeachment.  Vice 
President Alfredo Palacio condemned Gutierrez' declaration of 
a state of emergency, and has courted the opposition. 
Chilean President Ricardo Lagos canceled his visit to Ecuador 
at GOE request.  Embassy and CG Guayaquil outreach to all 
sectors continues.  End Summary. 
 
Congress Terminates Supreme Court; To Discuss Replacement 
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2.  (U) On April 17, Congress President Omar Quintana 
convened a special session to debate vacating the Supreme 
Court decreed terminated by President Gutierrez.  PRIAN 
leader Alvaro Noboa called for his legislators to boycott the 
session to avoid further blame should Congress fail to 
resolve the issue.  After seven hours of debate, Congress 
voted unanimously (89-0) to nullify its December 8, 2004 
resolution installing the current Supreme Court.  The new law 
also says the prior magistrates will not be reinstated. 
Congress will meet at 10 a.m. on April 19 to debate alternate 
methods to select a new court. 
 
Reactions to the State of Emergency 
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3.  (U) Ex-president Abdala Bucaram has been busy, making a 
radio address on April 18 to rant about the "self-interested 
oligarchy" that has continuously violated the Constitution 
since 1997.  Bucaram decried the people's anti-government 
protests over the past several days and credited Gutierrez' 
leadership for the unanimous congressional vote (the first 
time in 20 years).  Press reported on April 17 that in 
declaring the state of emergency, Gutierrez was following 
Bucaram's suggestion of how to respond to popular protests. 
Bucaram reportedly also suggested dissolving Congress, and 
arresting coup-plotters, if necessary, to prevent the 
unlawful destitution of the Supreme Court. 
 
4.  (U) Government opponents Quito Mayor Moncayo and 
Pichincha Prefect Ramiro Gonzalez reacted strongly to the 
state of emergency announcement, with Moncayo calling 
Gutierrez a dictator and calling for his resignation. 
Moncayo encouraged Quitenos to continue protesting 
(non-violently).  Gonzalez echoed Moncayo's anti-government 
sentiments, and called on citizens to blocks all entrances 
and exits to Quito (the blockages never happened). 
 
5.  (U) Vice President Palacio, never shy to distance himself 
from his president, announced on April 16 that Gutierrez is a 
dictator, and blamed him for the "chaos" the country has been 
experiencing.  Palacio emphasized that the people of Quito 
have experienced "brutal repression," which must be 
investigated and punished, and called on the President to end 
the state of emergency. 
 
Lagos Cancels Visit 
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6.  (U) In response to a request from the GOE, Chilean MFA 
announced on April 16 that he had postponed his upcoming 
visit to Ecuador.  Lagos will visit Brazil and Venezuela as 
planned and stop in Bogota instead of Quito.  He would 
reschedule the visit to Ecuador once the political situation 
permits. 
 
Upcoming Street Protests 
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7.  (SBU) A pro-government caravan in Guayaquil will start at 
3 p.m. today followed by a larger mobile protest caravan 
convoked by Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot.  Teacher unions and 
university students have announced their participation in 
Nebot's caravan.  Here in Quito, a large protest has been 
convoked for the evening of April 19 in a park.  Thus far, 
protests have been dispersed in several locations.  The April 
19 protests is intended to unify these and demonstrate the 
extent of citizen discontent. 
 
Embassy Outreach 
---------------- 
 
8.  (C) Embassy outreach to promote dialogue continues: 
 
-- The Ambassador met separately with President Gutierrez, 
the Chief of the Armed Forces, and spoke with DefMin Herrera 
on April 18 (SepTel). 
 
-- The Embassy and CG Guayaquil will continue to encourage 
dialogue and restraint on the government, the opposition, the 
military, and civil society. 
 
-- Embassy outreach to several indigenous groups indicates no 
immediate plan to join demonstrations in large numbers. 
 
-- We are also reaching out to other members of the dipcorps 
to promote stability and dialogue.  The Ambassador met 
separately with the Japanese and Spanish Ambassadors on April 
18, the DCM met with the Honduran Ambassador, and PolOffs 
will meet with the UN and other interested embassies. 
 
-- The cancellation of the Lagos visit was unfortunate.  We 
are encouraging friendly embassies to consider calls from 
their leaders to reinforce the dialogue message. 
 
-- CG Guayaquil will contact VP Palacio at a lower level, to 
reopen relatively dormant lines of communication. 
 
-- We see a possible role for an OAS political mission or a 
UN mission. 
 
-- AID maintains contact with key citizens groups involved in 
protests. 
 
-- ECON is reaching out to private sector groups. 
 
-- POL is monitoring developments in the opposition and 
Congress. 
 
Comment 
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10.  (C) Congress took a relatively easy step forward 
yesterday by vacating the discredited court.  Choosing the 
members of the replacement Court will be harder.  Thus far, 
Congressional action has not noticeably reduced political 
tensions. 
KENNEY