US embassy cable - 05PARIS2631

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, LE, SY, FR 
SUBJECT: ELYSEE CAUTIOUS BUT ENCOURAGED ON MIKATI 
APPOINTMENT AS LEBANESE PM 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Presidential Advisor on the Middle East Dominique 
Boche expressed cautious optimism on the appointment of Najib 
Mikati as Lebanese PM-designate, during a discussion with 
poloff April 18.  On the one hand, Boche conceded that 
Mikati's background and ties to Syrian President Bashar 
al-Asad were reasons to remain very cautious.  On the other 
hand, the manner in which Mikati was chosen, with the 
opposition supporting him and thwarting an all-out Syrian 
effort to back hard-liner Abdulrahim Mrad, gave reason for 
hope that a government could be formed quickly and elections 
could take place on time, or with a very slight delay.  On 
the latter point, Boche reaffirmed that the most the GoF 
could accept was a technical election delay of a few weeks, 
though it would not concede this publicly and would continue 
to insist on respecting the May 31 deadline.  (Note: The GoF 
reiterated calls for Lebanese elections taking place on time 
in an April 16 statement on the Mikati nomination, text in 
para 4, and in a joint French-Saudi communique issued upon 
conclusion of Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's visit to Paris 
April 15.  End note.) 
 
2. (C) As a next step, Boche said the GoF wanted to see 
Mikati move quickly to name a government of independent 
ministers who could inspire confidence -- which meant giving 
the opposition a say in choosing ministers, but not likely 
having opposition ministers in government.  The new 
government would also have to move quickly to resolve the 
election law issue before the end of April in order to hold 
elections by May 31.  On this point, Boche noted that Druze 
leader Walid Jumblatt, during Paris meetings with FM Barnier 
and Elysee officials April 15, had shown flexibility on 
whether smaller or larger election district were used, in 
contrast to the Maronite Christian elements of the 
opposition, who remained attached to the smaller "qada" 
districts proposal.  On the issue of election observers, 
Boche said President Lahoud had shown openness on accepting 
international election observers during the EU troika 
demarche delivered to him this past weekend -- likely a sign 
of Lahoud's increased isolation and weakness. 
 
3. (C) Asked about the recent "Letter to a French Friend," by 
Hizballah Secretary-General Nasrallah published in the French 
daily "Le Figaro" April 15 (which also appeared in the 
Lebanese daily "Al Safir" April 13), Boche interpreted the 
letter as a positive sign that Hizballah might be evolving, 
though Hizballah had yet to come on board in supporting 
elections on time.  MFA DAS-equivalent for the Levant 
Christian Jouret told us separately that Jumblatt, during his 
April 15 meeting with Barnier, described the Nasrallah letter 
as a sign of Hizballah's weakening position in the wake of 
the Syrian pull-out and an attempt to divide the U.S. and 
France on Lebanon.  According to Jouret, Barnier told 
Jumblatt that there were no problems between the U.S. and 
France on Lebanon.  (Note: The MFA spokesperson, when asked 
April 15 about the Nasrallah letter and Hizballah's refusal 
to disarm, "took note" of the Nasrallah letter "with 
interest," but also reiterated that "concerning the 
implementation of UNSCR 1559, Hizballah must enter into the 
process of complete politicization; it is necessary, 
naturally, that it be disarmed, as the Ta'if accords and 1559 
both demand.  It (UNSCR 1559) must be implemented, of course. 
 But things must be done in their time and context and 
therefore, it is necessary to address this question in a 
gradual sequential manner."  End note.) 
 
4. (U) The following is a text of the MFA statement issued 
April 16 on Mikati's appointment: 
 
Begin text. 
 
We have taken note of the nomination of Mr. Najib Mikati, MP 
and former minister, as Prime Minister by the Lebanese 
President upon conclusion of parliamentary consultations.  We 
hope that Mr. Mikati will be able to form a government very 
quickly, for which the objective will be, as he (Mikati) 
himself already declared, the organization within the 
institutional deadlines of legislative elections which must 
allow the Lebanese people to freely express themselves.  The 
first task of this government will therefore be to launch the 
electoral process but also to participate in the 
establishment on the ground of the international commission 
of inquiry on the attack against Rafik Hariri, created by 
UNSCR 1595. 
 
End text. 
WOLFF