US embassy cable - 05MADRID1495

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 001495 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, SP, Basque Region 
SUBJECT: BASQUE ELECTIONS: ETA SUPPORTERS GAIN SEATS 
 
REF: MADRID 1382 
 
1. (U) The moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) won its 
eighth straight regional election, but lost four seats in the 
75-seat Basque Parliament to the radical leftist Communist 
Party of the Basque Lands (EHAK), which had the explicit 
support of ETA front-group Batasuna.  The Marxist-Leninist 
EHAK was founded in 2002 and was not a factor in the 2005 
Basque elections until Batasuna threw its support behind EHAK 
after the Spanish government barred another ETA front group 
from participating in the vote (see reftel).  Zapatero will 
face intense criticism from the PP for his government's 
failure to impede EHAK's participation in the election (as 
the PP urged), a decision which resulted in increased 
political power for ETA front organizations. 
 
2. (U) Overall, however, the election was a victory for 
Zapatero.  The Basque wing of the Socialist Party (PSOE) 
gained five seats, mostly at the expense of the Popular Party 
(PP), and the combined strength of the PP and PSOE now places 
them one vote ahead of the PNV/United Left (EB-IU) coalition 
in the Basque Parliament.  The erosion of support for the PNV 
is seen as a repudiation its plan to seek near-independence 
from Madrid, both by moderates who view it as too extreme and 
by nationalist radicals who seek outright secession from 
Spain. 
 
//ELECTION RESULTS// 
 
3. (U) 2005 Basque Parliamentary Election results: 
 
PNV    -- 29 Seats -- 463,873 votes -- 38.6 percent of the 
vote 
 
PSOE   -- 18 Seats -- 272,429 votes -- 22.6 percent of the 
vote 
 
PP     -- 15 Seats -- 208,795 votes -- 17.3 percent of the 
vote 
 
EHAK   --  9 Seats -- 150,188 votes -- 12.5 percent of the 
vote 
 
EB-IU  --  3 Seats --  64,000 votes --  5.4 percent of the 
vote 
 
ARALAR --  1 Seat  --  28,001 votes --  2.3 percent of the 
vote 
 
NOTE: Aralar is a former ETA front group that has denounced 
terrorism, but remains allied to leftist nationalist 
positions. 
 
The following 2001 Basque Parliamentary Election results are 
provided for comparison: 
 
PNV    -- 33 Seats -- 604,222 votes -- 42.7 percent of the 
vote 
 
PP     -- 19 Seats -- 326,933 votes -- 23.1 percent of the 
vote 
 
PSOE   -- 13 Seats -- 253,195 votes -- 17.9 percent of the 
vote 
 
EB-IU  --  3 Seats --  78,862 votes --  5.5 percent of the 
vote 
 
EH     --  7 Seats -- 143,139 votes -- 10.1 percent of the 
vote 
 
NOTE: EH was the ETA front-group banned from political 
activity in 2003 under Spain's "Law of Political Parties." 
 
//TOUGH CHOICES FOR MODERATE BASQUE NATIONALISTS// 
 
4. (SBU) The electoral setback leaves the PNV with three 
unpalatable options: 
 
A) Lead with a weakened coalition, seeking temporary 
alliances when necessary; 
 
B) Seek an alliance with the Socialist Party (the PSOE would 
insist on limiting PNV moves towards independence); 
 
C) Seek an alliance with the radical nationalist EHAK 
(opening the PNV to accusations that it tolerates ETA 
violence). 
 
Most observers expect the PNV to go with the first option and 
forge ahead with a weakened PNV/IU-EB coaliton, at least for 
the moment.  However, Zapatero and the PSOE have given clear 
indications that they are open to a renegotiation of the 
existing Basque Autonomy Statute, though strictly within the 
limits set by the Spanish constitution.  This sets the PSOE 
apart from the PP, which rejects any increase in Basque 
autonomy.  Over time, the PNV may be tempted to drop its 
alliance with smaller leftist nationalist in favor of a 
coalition with the PSOE, especially if the Socialists 
continue to support moderate Basque nationalist objectives. 
This alliance would come at some cost to both the PNV and the 
PSOE; for the PNV because a coalition with the Socialists 
would imply acceptance of rule from Madrid and irritate its 
Basque nationalist base, and for the PSOE because the 
majority of the Spanish electorate resents Basque 
nationalists and would view a PSOE/PNV coalition as Socialist 
political opportunism. 
MANZANARES