US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV2428

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 002428 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FO/WELCH/DIBBLE 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DANIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2015 
TAGS: KWBG, PGOV, EAID, ECON, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT 
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT UPDATE #2 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: This is the second in a series of updates on 
GOI, donor community, and Post preparations for Israeli 
withdrawal and the post-disengagement Gazan economic and 
security situation. 
 
-- Developments in security coordination have focused on 
activities of U.S. Security Coordination Mission (USSCM), led 
by General Ward, which provides an overall framework and 
comprehensive plan for international donors, security 
assistance.  The USSCM has established milestones for 
consolidation and restructuring of the PA security services, 
with the end state of PA security forces, accountable and 
responsive to civilian authority and the rule of law, that 
effectively maintain order in PA-controlled areas and fight 
terror. 
 
-- Developments in the IDF's preparations for disengagement 
include increased IDF responsiveness to donor concerns about 
humanitarian access to Gaza, but a lack of IDF details on the 
potential economic and humanitarian impact of the probable 
"lockdown" of the Strip in the run-up to Israeli withdrawal; 
a number of improvements in the Gazan crossings and permits 
regime, including an increase in the number of Gazans 
crossing daily into Israel to over 4,000 from 200-300; and 
continued Gazan concern over delays at Karni terminal and 
strict security procedures at Erez and Rafah crossings. 
 
-- Developments in the GOI's internal positions have focused 
on responding to settler attempts to derail disengagement, 
such as the Gush Katif Settlers' Council's arrangements for 
the logistical support of thousands of Israelis it hopes will 
enter the Gaza settlements to help oppose the July-August 
pullout; High Court appeals by Gaza settlers seeking to 
repeal the law implementing disengagement; and a letter to PM 
Sharon from the Nissanit and Eli Sinai settlements arguing 
that because their land was never under Egyptian control it 
is not in the same category as other Gaza settlements and 
cannot be evacuated.  Additionally, the GOI may approve a 
plan to resettle over 100 Gush Katif families in the Nitzanim 
protected nature reserve, in exchange for their compliance 
with evacuation. 
 
-- Developments in economic coordination on disengagement 
include PA Civil Affairs' Minister Dahlan's suggestion that 
the U.S. or another donor obtain permission from the GOI to 
share settlement asset data with the PA without a formal PA 
request; Dahlan's reported "warning" to a group of Gazan 
businesspeople not to purchase settler assets privately; the 
awarding of the Palestinian Agriculture Partnership Activity 
(PAPA) program to the CARANA Corporation; and the agreement 
by the Israeli Water Commission and the Palestinian Water 
Authority to discuss water supply and infrastructure issues 
related to Gaza Disengagement.  End summary. 
 
------------------- 
Security Coordination 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) USSCM COORDINATING ASSISTANCE, IDENTIFYING 
MILESTONES: General Ward's USSCM held a Security Coordination 
Meeting April 6 meeting in Jericho, outlining his mission to 
the donor community.  Ward stressed the need for a "single 
pipeline" for international assistance.  Interior Minister 
Nasser Yusif, he said, is the sole point of contact for 
security aid to the PA, and donors should avoid using 
side-channels to bypass institutional authority.  Ward said 
that PA legislative reform is an integral part of the 
security reform process.  The EU,s major contribution to PA 
security is their EU Coordinating Office for Palestinian 
Police Support (EU COPPS) program, offering mission-focused 
training and equipment assistance, tied to reform benchmarks. 
 The Ward mission is currently working closely with PA 
security officials to identify restructuring milestones, 
which will include concrete steps to establish order and 
prevent terror, and implementation of the PA,s new pension 
law, allowing retirement of security personnel over age 60. 
 
---------------------------------- 
IDF Preparations for Disengagement 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) TFPI PLEASED WITH IDF RESPONSIVENESS, CONCERNED 
ABOUT LOCKDOWN -- TFPI members met with Gaza Division 
commander Brigadier General Uri Kohavi the week of March 28 
on issues relating to international and humanitarian access 
to the Gaza Strip.  This meeting represented the achievement 
of the TFPI's longstanding goal of securing direct access to 
brigade and division commanders.  Kohavi suggested regular 
meetings, and ordered his assistants to work with COGAT staff 
on "creative solutions" to the TFPI's "minimum requirements" 
document that addresses issues of cargo capacity, and 
crossings delays.  Despite this step forward, IDF brigade and 
division commanders have not yet been able to provide the 
TFPI with key details on the GOI's probable "lockdown" of the 
Gaza Strip in the run-up to disengagement, and the effect it 
may have on freedom of movement for Gazan Palestinians.  The 
activities of 40,000 to 50,000 IDF troops and several 
thousand additional Israeli National Police forces to be 
deployed to the Strip on or around June 1 may cause a de 
facto closure of the Strip to Palestinians as well as Israeli 
settlers.  The Embassy has made clear to the GOI that COGAT 
and IDF assistance will be required in ensuring ease of 
travel for some 60 Gazans slated to travel to the U.S. on 
USAID and Public Diplomacy-sponsored programs between June 
and October. 
 
4.  (C) CROSSINGS IMPROVEMENTS DON'T MAKE A SPLASH AMONGST 
GAZANS -- Despite several improvements in the Gaza crossings 
regime, contacts report that only a limited number of 
businesspeople and other "elite" have benefited, and that a 
majority of average Gazans note little positive impact on 
their daily lives.  Improvements have included a recent 
increase in laborer permits to 5,600 from 1,100, an increase 
in the number of laborers crossing into Israel daily to over 
4,000 from 200-300 prior to February, the partial re-opening 
of the Erez Industrial Zone, and the easing of private 
vehicle restrictions at Abu Kholi junction in central Gaza. 
Recent reports from Gaza have primarily focused, however, on 
the negative, including continued delays at Karni cargo 
terminal of 20-30 days, humiliating security checks for 
laborers crossing through Erez terminal, and a new passenger 
scanner at the Rafah crossing that Gazan sources claim emits 
harmful radiation despite IDF assurances to the contrary. 
 
---------------------- 
Internal GOI Positions 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) AGRICULTURE MINISTER URGES FARMERS TO COMMUTE TO 
GAZA POST DISENGAGEMENT -- Minister of Agriculture Yisrael 
Katz has advised Gush Katif farmers that he plans to push 
forward an extension on the evacuation timetable that would 
allow them to commute to Gaza after the withdrawal to work in 
their greenhouses.  According to Katz, the current evacuation 
timetable precludes moving agribusinesses into Green Line 
Israel in time for the upcoming growing season.  Katz's plan 
would include IDF escorts for the commuting farmers.  Katz 
has not revealed any details of how he plans to "push 
forward" this extension within the GOI. 
 
6.  (SBU) SETTLERS AND THEIR ALLIES MOBILIZE -- Israeli media 
reported that the Gush Katif Settlers' Council is making 
arrangement for the logistical support of thousands of 
Israelis it hopes will enter the Gaza settlements to help 
oppose the July-August pullout.  PM Sharon ordered the 
Israeli security establishment to allow Israelis to visit 
Gush Katif during the Passover holiday, but to ensure that 
"whoever comes does not move there," according to Israeli 
media reports.  Although the date on which the Strip will be 
closed has not yet been finalized by IDF and GOI planners, 
media continue to speculate that access to the settlements 
will be cut off following Israeli Independence Day on May 12. 
 
7.  (SBU) GAZA OUTPOST RESURFACES -- On April 10, 20 members 
of the ultra-Orthodox "Chabad" Hassidic movement reportedly 
established an outpost near Neve Dekalim settlement using as 
a base a shack that was built four months ago in earlier 
attempt to establish an outpost, subsequently destroyed by 
the IDF, and almost immediately rebuilt by Gush Katif youth, 
but left uninhabited until this week.  In addition to a shack 
that serves as a synagogue, the young men have erected a 
large tent as living quarters and say they expect "thousands" 
more Chabad students to join them in the coming weeks and 
months. 
 
8.  (C) "GUSH NITZANIM" -- PM Sharon, despite opposition from 
environmentalists, is pressing ahead with a plan to relocate 
interested Gush Katif settlers as a bloc to Nitzanim, a 
protected nature preserve along the coast just north of the 
Gaza Strip, near the Israeli cities of Ashkelon and Ashdod. 
The plan came about after a group claiming to represent a 
group of "pragmatic" settlers from Gush Katif approached 
former Israel Lands Authority Director Avi Drexler, promising 
to leave Gaza with "a minimum of friction" if they could be 
resettled as a group in Nitzanim.  Approximately 100 families 
currently live in the area, and the proposal is to expand the 
inhabited area from its current single small town to 650 
families living in four small towns.  Opponents of the plan 
claim that real estate developers are using disengagement to 
grab at a windfall development opportunity.  Furthering this 
view, press reports claim that as many as 1,780 houses may 
eventually be built if the area is opened for construction. 
Press reports claim that the PM is inclined to approve the 
deal if the settlers can provide convincing evidence that 
they will be able to enforce the promised calm. 
 
9.  (SBU) LEGAL ACTIONS OPPOSING DISENGAGEMENT, PART I -- A 
special 11-member panel of the Israeli High Court heard 
arguments the week of April 4 on eight petitions filed by 
Gaza settlers seeking to repeal the law implementing the 
disengagement plan.  The settlers, who are members of the 
Gaza Coast Regional Council, and a number of 
Gaza-settlement-based, Israeli factory owners argued that the 
law violates elements of the Basic Law governing human 
dignity and freedom and that the compensation designated by 
the law is too low.  The State argued that the petitioners 
settled in the area knowing that it was territory seized 
during war and that its eventual evacuation was possible.  A 
decision on the petition is pending. 
 
10.  (SBU) LEGAL ACTIONS OPPOSING DISENGAGEMENT, PART II -- 
Residents of the northern Gaza settlements of Nissanit and 
Eli Sinai in early April wrote to PM Sharon to challenge the 
GOI's plans to remove them from the Gaza Strip.  They argued 
that the land on which the two communities are located was 
never under Egyptian control and was instead a demilitarized 
zone under UN control.  Thus, according to the settlers' 
logic, the Palestinians have no right to the land since the 
Palestinians seek to regain under international law only what 
was under Egyptian control.  The settlers are requesting 
revisions of the disengagement plan that would leave these 
two settlements in place.  They further argue that the 
separation fence already in place around Gaza actually runs 
to the south of their two settlements. 
 
--------------------- 
Economic Coordination 
--------------------- 
 
11.  (C) PA WANTS SETTLEMENT DATA WITHOUT A FORMAL REQUEST -- 
The GOI has compiled an inventory of settlement assets to be 
handed over to the PA following withdrawal, and has passed 
this information to the East-West and Aspen Institutes and 
several of the donors.  GOI interlocutors say that they are 
waiting for a formal request from the PA before passing the 
data to PA Civil Affairs Minister Muhammad Dahlan and his 
disengagement planning committee.  Peres staffers reported, 
however, that in a late March meeting with Israeli Vice PM 
Peres, Dahlan noted that a formal ministerial-level request 
for the data will be difficult to make due to political 
sensitivities.  He suggested that the U.S. or another donor 
obtain permission from the GOI to share the data with the PA. 
 So far no donor, including the U.S., has moved to bring this 
request forward to the GOI.  (Note: Dahlan made this same 
suggestion in a meeting with USAID Director and ConGen 
EconChief April 1, reported in Jerusalem 1433.  End note.) 
 
12.  (SBU) PAPA PROGRAM READY TO GO -- USAID's Palestinian 
Agribusiness Partnership Activity (PAPA) was officially 
awarded to the CARANA Corporation on April 6.  During the 
first 18 months following Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza 
Strip, PAPA will invest at least USD 15 million in fixed 
capital investments and technical assistance to support the 
creation of mutually beneficial Palestinian-Israeli 
agribusiness partnerships that will transfer modern 
technology and establish Palestinian access to Middle East 
and EU markets.  PAPA's effectiveness depends in part on the 
PA's approval of a caretaker entity to manage Gush Katif 
settlement assets immediately following withdrawal, and the 
eventual privatization of those agribusiness assets.  PAPA 
will proceed with agribusiness partnerships in other areas in 
the West Bank and Gaza regardless of the asset transfer 
related to the Gush Katif complexes. 
 
13.  (C) DAHLAN "WARNS" BUSINESSES AWAY FROM ASSETS -- At a 
March meeting with the Palestinian Business Association, PA 
Civil Affairs Minister Dahlan reportedly "warned" businesses 
against independently purchasing settlement lands or assets 
within the Erez Industrial Zone (EIZ), since doing so would, 
in the PA's view, give de facto legitimization to Israeli 
ownership.  Dahlan asked the PBA not to get ahead of his 
coordination with the GOI on the transfer of assets. 
According to PBA reports, Dahlan's lecture was in response to 
the recent purchase of EIZ factories by three private Gazans, 
and the reported attempts by a limited number of Gush Katif 
settlers to negotiate the sale of settlement land with Gazan 
agribusiness firms.  Several private sector contacts 
confirmed they had heard of this outreach on the part of 
settlers, but were unable to confirm the identities of the 
Gazan firms involved.  (Note: In an April 13 meeting with the 
PA,s Ministerial-level Gaza withdrawal committee, Prime 
Minister Quraya, warned that any private contract for land 
or assets that will be handed over to the PA after the 
Israeli withdrawal is to be considered null and void.  End 
note.) 
 
14.  (SBU) GOI AND PA WATER AUTHORITIES AGREE TO DISCUSS 
DISENGAGEMENT -- At the meeting of the Trilateral Water 
Working Group held at USAID offices in Tel Aviv April 7, the 
Israeli Water Commission and the Palestinian Water Authority 
agreed to discuss water supply and infrastructure issues 
related to Gaza Disengagement.  A significant point of 
negotiation may be mechanisms by which the GOI will continue 
to supply water at cost to settlement areas 
post-disengagement -- a question raised by the GOI's 
announcement it would re-route six million cubic meters of 
water from Gush Katif to green line Israel settlements 
following disengagement.  The Commission and the PWA agreed 
to meet this week or next for initial discussions and to put 
together a plan by mid-May.  NEA Senior Advisor for S&T 
Charles Lawson is scheduled to review the water plan with the 
two sides in early June. 
 
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