US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1828

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001828 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: PFP LEGISLATOR EMBRACES KMT BANNER 
 
REF: TAIPEI 01525 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Popular People First Party (PFP) Legislator 
Chou Hsi-wei announced April 13 that he is rejoining the KMT 
and intends to participate in the KMT Taipei County 
Magistrate primary race.  The PFP responded by announcing it 
would expel Chou.  While Chou did not specify why he was 
leaving the PFP, political observers judge that he made his 
decision in order to boost his chances of winning the 
year-end Taipei County Magistrate election.  Few Pan-Blue 
insiders were surprised at Chou's decision to leave. 
However, they are divided over whether Chou's action would 
prompt other PFP legislators to follow suit.  While most KMT 
members welcomed Chou's return to the fold, KMT contenders in 
the intra-party primary for the Taipei County Magistrate race 
have responded bitterly, even threatening to run as 
independent candidates if the party leadership unfairly 
favored Chou's candidacy.  Chou's defection has heightened 
the sense of crisis within the fragile PFP, and it could be 
one more blow to James Soong's eroding control over his 
party.  It could paradoxically give Soong more flexibility in 
upcoming negotiations with the DPP by removing PFP 
malcontents, but only at the expense of reducing the overall 
value to the DPP of any bargain he offers.  End Summary. 
 
The First Domino? 
----------------- 
 
2. (C) In a much anticipated move, prominent People First 
Party (PFP) Legislator Chou Hsi-wei announced on April 13 
that he intends to rejoin the KMT under the recently revised 
party charter allowing former members to return (Reftel). 
While Chou did not specify his reasons for rejoining the KMT, 
political observers concluded that he was seeking to boost 
his chances to win the Taipei County Magistrate election in 
December.  One political analyst told AIT that in the current 
political atmosphere Pan-Blue voters were more likely to vote 
KMT than PFP.  Most local observers agree that if both KMT 
and PFP run candidates in the Taipei County race, they would 
cancel out each other and allow the Democratic Progressive 
Party's (DPP) Luo Wen-chia to win the election.  In a press 
conference to explain his decision, Chou stated that only if 
the Pan-Blue coalition united to support a single slate of 
candidates could the coalition win in the year-end magistrate 
and mayoral elections.  He said that he was ready to 
participate in the KMT primaries by registering as a KMT 
member and "to act as the first stone in paving the road of 
future cooperation between the KMT and PFP." 
 
3. (C) Chou told the press that he had informed PFP Chairman 
James Soong prior to announcing his decision and had received 
Soong's blessing, but PFP Legislative Caucus Whip Lee 
Yong-ping disagreed, stating that Chou had not informed Soong 
or the PFP leadership.  PFP Spokesman Hsieh Kung-ping 
announced that the PFP charter does not allow for dual party 
membership and that the PFP will strip Chou of his PFP 
membership.  Party insider Raymond Wu told AIT that Chou 
attempted to contact Soong prior to the April 13 announcement 
but Soong refused to take his call.  This, Wu continued, was 
Soong's standard operating procedure -- knowing he could not 
dissuade Chou from his decision to leave, Soong avoided 
confrontation by delegating his aide Hsia Lung to take Chou's 
call. 
 
Abandoning a Sinking Ship 
------------------------- 
 
4. (C) PFP's Raymond Wu told AIT that Chou's disenchantment 
with PFP Chairman James Soong dated back to the 2000 
presidential campaign when the KMT released damaging 
information on Soong that lead to the "Hsin Piao" financial 
corruption scandal.  So far in his career, Chou has been 
untainted by financial and marital scandals and is widely 
perceived by his colleagues and the public to be quite 
scrupulous in both areas.  His more cynical colleagues told 
AIT, however, that Chou was angry about the Hsin Piao scandal 
not because of any moral concerns but because he felt the 
scandal cost Soong the presidential election and, in turn, 
derailed Chou's own career ambitions.  PFP Legislator Daniel 
Hwang (Yih-jiau) told AIT that Chou did not leave the PFP for 
ideological reason.  He noted that Chou did not even mention 
the Chen-Soong meeting in his press conference, adding 
"everyone knows it is because he wants to be Taipei County 
Magistrate." 
Who's Next? 
----------- 
 
5. (C) Political observers speculate that Chou's decision to 
leave might prompt other PFP legislators to defect from the 
shaky PFP.  Already a PFP Kaohsiung City Councilor, Lin 
Shou-shan, has announced his return to the KMT.  PFP 
Legislators Liu Wen-hsiung and Chung Shao-ho, candidates for 
Keelung City Mayor and Kaohsiung County Magistrate, 
respectively, have both vowed to stay with the PFP.  PFP 
Changhwa County Magistrate candidate Hsieh Chang-chieh, 
however, said he would consider all options but promised not 
to act rashly.  Raymond Wu told AIT that PFP Legislators Lee 
Ching-hua and Lee Ching-an -- son and daughter of KMT elder 
Lee Huan -- are probably the next to go.  He said that PFP 
legislators Chiu Yi, Sun Ta-chien, and George Hsieh 
(Kuo-liang) are likely to jump ship by the end of the year, 
while Lee Yong-ping is on the borderline.  Soong loyalist 
Daniel Hwang, however, insisted that not even the pro-KMT 
elements in the PFP would follow Chou's example.  He pointed 
out that no one in the PFP has spoken out to defend Chou and 
that public opinion has been unfavorable to Chou because his 
action is regarded as self-serving.  Hwang also noted that 
Lee Ching-hua and Lee Ching-an might have been tempted to 
leave but now that Chou has stolen the thunder by being the 
first there is no incentive for anyone else to defect. 
 
Mixed Feelings Within KMT 
------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The KMT leadership, including KMT Secretary General 
Lin Fong-cheng, Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou and 
Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-pyng, have publicly 
welcomed Chou's return to the party.  KMT Legislator Alex 
Tsai told AIT that he had paved the way for Chou's return to 
 
SIPDIS 
the KMT by arranging a meeting between Chou and KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan in mid-March.  Not everyone in the KMT, however, 
has welcomed Chou back into the fold.  KMT contenders in 
Taipei County Magistrate race, Legislators Lee Chia-chin and 
Hung Hsiu-chu, have warned the KMT leadership to conduct the 
Taipei County Magistrate primary in a transparent manner. 
Lee Chia-chin even said that he would quit the KMT and run as 
an independent candidate if he thought the party leadership 
unfairly favored Chou. 
 
Comment: Good Riddance? 
----------------------- 
 
7. (C) Chou's defection will heighten the PFP's sense of 
crisis and be another blow to James Soong's diminishing 
control over his party.  The PFP leadership is trying to 
prevent further hemorrhaging by immediately announcing that 
PFP Legislator Lee Hung-chun from Taipei County -- Soong's 
original choice for PFP Caucus leader -- would stand as the 
PFP candidate for Taipei County Magistrate.  The deep and 
growing PFP bitterness toward the KMT, based on the 
conviction that the KMT is poaching PFP ranks, does not bode 
well for Pan-Blue unity in the December 2005 county/city 
elections.  From another perspective, however, Chou's return 
to the KMT might be a disguised blessing for the PFP 
leadership.  Departure of Chou and other high profile PFP 
malcontents might enable Soong to reassert control of the 
frayed party and provide him with more flexibility in 
upcoming negotiations with the DPP.  However such flexibility 
comes at the price of reducing the overall value of a PFP 
deal to the DPP as the party's forces are depleted. 
PAAL