US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1827

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001827 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MUTUAL RECRIMINATIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF LIEN 
BEIJING VISIT 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian and KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan used public fora in Taipei and Singapore to trade 
another round of public accusations.  During an April 16 
speech, President Chen asked mockingly if the KMT's upcoming 
talks with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were aimed at 
losing Taiwan, just as the last round of KMT-CCP talks in 
1945 resulted in the loss of Mainland China.  Speaking in 
Singapore on April 17, Lien blamed Chen's "populism" for 
ruining Taiwan's economy.  Despite the mutual recriminations, 
neither side has formally rejected some sort of consultations 
before Lien's departure.  Taiwan's National Security Council 
(NSC) believes that Lien will make some sort of report to 
Chen before he leaves in order to protect himself from 
charges of undermining the government.  The NSC assesses that 
it is now the KMT, rather than Beijing, that is pushing for a 
substantive agreement during Lien's visit.  President Chen 
has ordered government and ruling party officials to take a 
much milder line in reaction to PRC President Hu Jintao's 
reported April 18 invitation to People First Party (PFP) 
Chairman James Soong.  However, Chen administration officials 
are not decided on whether to use Soong's visit to convey a 
message to PRC interlocutors.  End Summary. 
 
Talking to the Enemy 
-------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Despite a call between Presidential Office Secretary 
General Yu Shyi-kun and KMT Secretary General Lin Fong-cheng 
on April 15, President Chen and KMT Chairman Lien continued 
to trade public barbs over the April 16-17 weekend.  On April 
16, Chen told a group of Rotary members that the last time 
the KMT and CCP initialed a formal agreement was 1945, which 
resulted four years later in the loss of Mainland China. 
Chen asked sarcastically if the KMT was now trying to lose 
Taiwan as well.  Chen criticized the KMT's position that the 
KMT and CCP share a common commitment to "one China," 
asserting that acquiescing to "one China" would mean 
accepting Beijing's "one country, two systems" model.  During 
an April 17 speech in Singapore, Lien responded by accusing 
Chen of ruining Taiwan's economy through his "populist" 
leadership. 
 
3. (C) Despite Chen's vitriolic attacks on Lien's loyalties, 
the Presidential Office spokesman reiterated on April 18 the 
President's willingness to endorse Lien's visit after the two 
leaders held discussions.  KMT SecGen Lin told reporters on 
April 16 that the KMT would consider an offer from 
Presidential Office SecGen Yu for Lien to contact Chen by 
phone before his departure for the Mainland.  However, Yu 
aide Lin You-chang told AIT on April 18 that the exchange 
between the two Secretaries General was brief and 
non-substantive.  Lin said that no provisions were made for 
further consultations between the two officials.  KMT SecGen 
Lin departed Taipei on April 18 to Beijing for talks with PRC 
counterparts in advance of Lien's upcoming visit. 
 
4. (C) NSC Senior Advisor for cross-Strait affairs Chen 
Chung-hsin told AIT that the KMT would likely agree to at 
least a phone call between Lien and the President before Lien 
departs, if only to protect Lien from Democratic Progressive 
Party (DPP) attacks on his loyalty.  Chen expressed 
confidence, however, that Lien would not sign any formal 
agreement with PRC counterparts during his visit.  Chen 
stated that the NSC's assessment is that it is Beijing, not 
the KMT, which is backing away from its initial enthusiasm 
over contacts with the KMT.  Chen noted a series of recent 
PRC public statements appeared to be calibrated to dispel the 
impression that Beijing had chosen the KMT as its preferred 
conduit.  Chen remarked that the government's assessment that 
Lien Chan is now more eager than Beijing to achieve a KMT-CCP 
"breakthrough" is driving the President to take an even 
harder public line against the KMT. 
 
PFP: The Preferred Pan-Blue Party 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The NSC's Chen told AIT that the President has 
instructed government agencies and the DPP to make a clear 
distinction between their public treatment of Lien and PFP 
Chairman Soong, who received a public invitation from the PRC 
to visit on April 18.  The PFP immediately accepted the 
invitation, extended in the name of President Hu Jintao. 
Chen said that the government will use the same basic public 
line with Soong as they have towards Lien -- that any party 
leader should visit Beijing only after consulting with the 
government.  However, the Chen administration will use Soong 
as a positive example of government-opposition coordination 
to contrast with the KMT's example, Chen added.  Chen said 
that the government has not made a decision yet whether to 
use Soong as a conduit to convey any messages to Beijing. 
 
Comment: Continued Friction 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) With the Chen administration calculating that Lien 
will eventually acquiesce to call the President and that 
Beijing will not sign any formal accord with the KMT, 
President Chen appears to feel little need to moderate his 
public criticism of Lien Chan.  Even if the President's 
assessment over Lien's visit is accurate, the increasingly 
bitter public recrimination being traded between the two 
sides will likely spill over and poison other DPP-KMT 
contacts.  Among other things, we expect that they will make 
it harder to resume normal operations in the Legislative Yuan 
(LY).  AIT will continue to remind leaders on both sides of 
the need to maintain at least a modicum of civility in order 
to advance Taiwan's broader legislative objectives after the 
Lien visit has concluded. 
PAAL