US embassy cable - 05ROME1291

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 001291 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IT, ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT: ITALY:  UDC WITHDRAWS ITS MINISTERS FROM 
GOVERNMENT, BUT NO ELECTIONS BEFORE 2006 
 
Classified By: POL-MIL COUNSELOR JONATHAN COHEN, REASONS 1.5 (D). 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  The centrist Union of Christian 
Democrats of the Center (UDC) announced on April 15 that it 
would withdraw its ministers from the Berlusconi Government. 
UDC leader Marco Follini assured the Government that his 
party would continue to support the majority from outside the 
coalition.  It is unclear whether this move will prompt a 
"Berlusconi Bis" -- a resignation of the current Government 
so that it would, essentially, replace itself.  Available 
contacts on both left and right, however, joined in 
predicting that national elections will still not be held 
before 2006; neither center-right, center-left nor the 
Italian political and budget cycle are ready for them 
earlier.  The final shape of what we expect to be the ongoing 
Berlusconi Government may not be clear for several days.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  Following an April 15 leadership meeting, former 
governing coalition partner UDC announced it would withdraw 
its ministers from the Berlusconi Government.  UDC, one of 
the two smaller partners in the governing coalition, has 
three ministers -- Rocco Buttiglione (EU Policies), Carlo 
Amedeo Giovannardi (Relations with Parliament), and Mario 
Baccini (Public Administration).   UDC holds 31 seats in the 
Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate; were the party to 
withdraw its parliamentary support, the governing coalition 
would lose its majority in both chambers.  However, UDC 
leader (former DPM) Marco Follini assured the Government of 
his party's "loyal support" in Parliament.  UDC has the duty 
to make sure the majority continues to govern, Follini said. 
UDC would support, for example, the Government's draft law to 
improve economic competitiveness, even on a confidence vote. 
UDC proposed "a new government of the House of Freedoms (the 
governing coalition), presided by Silvio Berlusconi." 
 
3.  (SBU)  Tiny coalition supporter Italy's New Socialist 
Party (PSI), the vehicle for former Foreign Minister Gianni 
De Michelis, also announced its withdrawal from the 
coalition.  PSI has no ministers (one deputy minister and one 
under secretary) and six seats in the Chamber of Deputies. 
Its withdrawal is not significant. 
 
4.  (C)  In the wake of the governing coalition's disastrous 
results in April 3-4 regional voting, FM Fini's National 
Alliance (AN) and UDC are pursuing different strategies, but 
have similar goals.  Both parties want a new focus in the 
Government's program.  While 2004 electoral wrangling seemed 
more focused on positions than policy, today's 
intra-coalition debate is about programs.  As Fini told the 
press, AN wants the Government to say concretely what it will 
do to help Italy's South (Mezzogiorno), to protect family 
incomes, and to spur competitiveness.  The UDC leadership's 
statement announcing the withdrawal of its ministers echoed 
those demands.  While both leading coalition partner Forza 
Italia (FI) and the Northern League (Lega) have their voter 
base in the north, AN and UDC have national constituencies, 
relatively stronger in the south.  Their electorates include 
significant percentages, probably majorities, of voters who 
expect state services, state income support, and a more 
populist approach to governing. 
 
5.  (C)  In the wake of UDC's withdrawal, the Government will 
have to seek some form of Parliamentary approval by 
confidence vote, but opinions are divided as to whether this 
will necessitate a reconstituted government -- the 
"Berlusconi Bis" the Prime Minister wants to avoid. 
(Berlusconi sees within his grasp the historical prize of 
being Italy's first Prime Minister to complete a full term.) 
 President Ciampi plays a large role.  Under Italy's 
Constitution, he must countersign the appointment of any 
minister, and Berlusconi will have to replace the three UDC 
ministers who submitted their resignations.  While Ciampi 
does not have constitutional power to impose a change in 
ministers or to demand that the ministers be approved by 
Parliament, he has public influence.  He could, and we think 
it likely that he will, ask Berlusconi to have his new team 
approved by Parliament.  Presuming UDC keeps its word that it 
will support the Government on confidence measures, and that 
AN and the League hold fast, a vote, whether on ministers or 
a program, should not threaten the Government. 
 
6.  (C)  Ciampi could also ask Berlusconi to resign, but 
could not legally insist that the PM do so.  (COMMENT:  We 
note, however, that President Scalfaro forced Berlusconi's 
1994 resignation by going on television to make his demand 
public.  This seems less Ciampi's style, but cannot be 
completely ruled out.  END COMMENT.)  Berlusconi began the 
week saying adamantly that there would be no "Berlusconi 
Bis."  Today, he replied to press questions with a more 
equivocal "We'll see."  With expected bravura, however, he 
 
added, "You won't get rid of me easily."  A contact in the 
Prime Minister's Diplomatic Adviser's office predicted that 
the Government would be forced to regroup, going into a 
Berlusconi Bis.  (This would still leave him the 
not-insignificant title of being the longest-serving prime 
minister in Italy's post-World War II history.) 
 
7.  (C)  Long-range political positioning guides partisan 
maneuvering.  AN faction leader (and Agricultural Minister) 
Alemanno suggested this week that the coalition should run a 
"ticket" in 2006 elections featuring Berlusconi for President 
of the Republic and Fini for Prime Minister.  (Note:  This is 
not actually possible under the Italian voting system.)  His 
after-thought addition that Chamber of Deputies President 
Pier Ferdinando Casini (who considers himself the best choice 
for either slot) might also be a candidate for PM did little 
to mollify UDC.  UDC considers itself the rightful leader of 
a new "grand center alliance," but the numbers give AN 
greater political weight.  Thus, whether or not they are 
battling head to head, much of the current maneuvering is 
aimed at positioning Casini and Fini for a post-Berlusconi 
role, whether the next era comes sooner (with a debilitated 
Berlusconi being forced to resign) or later (after a 
triumphant Berlusconi concludes a second term). 
 
8.  (C)  COMMENT:  It is unclear exactly what the Italian 
Government will look like one week from now, but we think it 
will still be led by the current Prime Minister.  And while 
we are slightly less sanguine than we were a week ago in 
predicting that the next national elections will be in 2006, 
that is still our best bet.  Neither the center-left nor the 
center-right is ready for elections now; summer means 
vacations, not elections; and fall elections are unheard of 
in Italy due to the requirement to approve a budget by 
year-end.  Both Senate President Pera (FI) and Senator 
Lamberto Dini (leader of his own minuscule center-left party, 
Italian Renewal) were with the Ambassador at a Fulbright 
ceremony when news of UDC's withdrawal reached Pera's press 
spokesperson by SMS, and both agreed with these premises. 
 
SEMBLER 
 
 
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	2005ROME01291 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL