US embassy cable - 05VATICAN465

UNCLAS  VATICAN 000465 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT. FOR EUR/WE (LEVIN) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, VT, terrorism, religious freedom 
SUBJECT: TOWARD THE CONCLAVE PART II:  CHALLENGES FACING THE CHURCH 
 
REF: VATICAN 000463 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (U) When the 115 Cardinal Electors come together in the 
Sistine Chapel April 18 to elect a new Pope, they will vote to 
elect the individual they believe is best suited to lead the 
Catholic Church at this moment in history.  Who that person is 
will depend in part on what the Cardinal electors believe are 
the greatest challenges facing the Church today.  This message, 
the second in a three part series looking ahead to the conclave, 
examines the issues that are likely to shape the selection of 
the next pope.  These include reversing the dramatic decline of 
religious observance in traditionally Catholic European 
countries, managing the rapid growth of the Church in Africa, 
meeting the challenge of evangelical groups in Latin America, 
the Church's approach to bioethics, dialogue with other 
religions -- particularly with the Muslim world, promoting unity 
with the Orthodox Church, expanding vocations, improving 
training of new priests, and managing the Holy See's broader 
interaction with the world.  The latter issue will be 
particularly important to the U.S. as we look to build on the 
foundation of shared interests developed with the Holy See under 
the Pontificate of John Paul II in promoting human dignity 
through religious freedom, human rights, democracy and freedom. 
End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
MEETING THE NEEDS OF A GLOBAL CHURCH 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (U) Whoever is elected pope will need to work hard to keep 
the multi-hued worldwide tapestry of the Catholic Church from 
unraveling into geographical, theological or ideological 
strands.  When the 115 cardinals who have gathered to elect the 
next pope speak about the problems facing the Church, they 
sometimes appear to be speaking about different churches.  Latin 
Americans rarely mention Europe's problem of empty pews, while 
sexual abuse scandals rank low among priorities in Asia.   Each 
cardinal will bring his own concerns and priorities into the 
conclave, but the man who leaves as pope must have a global 
vision capable of addressing these diverse and distinctive 
challenges if he is to be a successful pastor to a flock of some 
one billion Catholics.  John Paul II grasped the universal 
qualities of his mission, and succeeded in conveying to the 
faithful on every continent his interest in each region's 
concerns.  His successor will need to adopt a similar strategy 
in meeting the priority challenges faced in Europe, the 
Americas, and Asia. 
 
------------------------------ 
EUROPE:  REVERSING THE DECLINE 
------------------------------ 
 
3. (U) The decline of Catholic observance and identification in 
the developed world, particularly in traditionally Catholic 
countries in Western Europe, cannot go unheeded by the next 
pope.  Thus the cardinal electors will be seeking a candidate 
who understands this crisis of faith and whom they believe can 
help reverse it.  This does not necessarily translate into a 
European Pope, since the decline has occurred while Europeans 
have held the papacy.  Nevertheless, some European papal 
contenders, including Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, have made clear 
that they regard reinvigorating the European church as their 
highest priority.  Another line of thinking among Cardinals 
suggests that the Church should accept a diminished status in 
Europe, and focus instead on strengthening the "faithful 
remnant" of European believers for a future.  Many of these 
remnants in Europe today can be found in lay religious movements 
such as Communion and Liberation, Opus Dei, and the Focolari, 
and a candidate with close ties to these groups such as Cardinal 
Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan or Cardinal Angelo Scola of Venice 
could benefit if such a view finds a wide following. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
AFRICA:  MANAGING GROWTH, FIGHTING POVERTY 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4. (U) In 1900 Africa had less than one percent of the world's 
Catholics; today the total has risen to 13 percent and should 
climb to almost 20 percent by 2025.  The next Pope will see in 
the African churches a hope for the Church's future, not only in 
terms of numbers of believers and degree of religiosity, but 
 
also as a rich source for the priests and other religious 
personnel now seriously lacking in the West.  In fact, the 
principal problem facing African bishops today is how to mange 
this exponential growth and meet the pastoral needs of a poor 
and disadvantaged flock.  The Pope will also need to address 
pressures from this growing flock for greater cultural 
adaptations of traditional Catholic liturgies that are resisted 
by conservative elements in the Roman Curia. 
 
5. (U) The next Pope will also have to lead the Holy See's 
efforts to address the political, economic, and social 
challenges in Africa.  He will be expected to promote creative 
ways to address the lowest per capita income of any continent, 
millions of AIDS victims, millions of refugees and further 
millions of internally displaced persons, and an external debt 
that makes development impossible for many nations.  Already the 
Holy See provides over 25 percent of care and treatment for 
HIV/AIDS patients, and its hospitals and clinics provide 
critical support for African populations.  Pope John Paul II 
left a strong legacy of concern for the continent, reflected in 
his call just prior to his death for another special meeting of 
the Synod of Bishops to focus on Africa and his late 2004 
invitation to his Nuncios in Africa to meet in Rome to assess 
how the Church in Africa could help meet the continent's 
challenges of poverty, mismanagement of resources, corruption, 
political instability and social disorientation.  The Holy See 
will therefore be seeking the leadership of a pope who will be 
able to serve as a voice for the powerless, a mediator of 
conflicts, and a strong pastor to guide the growing African 
flock. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
LATIN AMERICA:  CATHOLIC BASTION UNDER PRESSURE 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
6. (U) Forty-two percent of the world's Catholics live in Latin 
America, and the continent was a prime focus during John Paul 
II's pontificate.  He made 18 pastoral trips to the region, 
bringing the papacy directly to the people in a way that they 
had not previously experienced.  John Paul II also re-shaped the 
hierarchy in Latin America, appointing bishops and cardinals who 
rejected liberation theology but reflected his criticisms of 
free-market capitalism and supported traditional family and 
sexual values.  As a result, the bishops today are in tune with 
the church's position on priestly celibacy, abortion and other 
moral issues, while also being committed to social justice and 
teaching the social doctrine of the church in favor of the poor 
and oppressed. 
 
7. (U) The electors will be looking for a new Pope who can 
continue to strike this balance between moral conservatism and 
social activism, while providing a vibrant and direct pastoral 
presence in the region of the world with the most Catholics. 
This will be particularly vital to the Church's ability to meet 
the strong challenge of Pentecostal Protestantism that has drawn 
away millions of Catholics from the fold.  In the face of this 
growth, John Paul II's successor will need to be flexible in 
allowing the Church in Latin America to meet its needs 
creatively.  For example, he will likely have to continue John 
Paul II's tacit approval of female leadership in the Latin 
American church (many parishes are administered by nuns or lay 
women who baptize, bury the dead and lead prayer services in the 
absence of ordained clergy).  And, while the next pope will not 
change the Church's disciple about clerical celibacy, he could 
be expected to allow for an expanded role for lay people that 
will go some way to countering the challenge from the 
evangelicals who tend to be more inclusive in their hierarchical 
structure. 
 
----------------------- 
ASIA: THE NEW FRONTIER 
----------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Asia remains the last frontier for the Catholic 
Church's missionary efforts.  With the Philippines being the 
sole Catholic country in the region, the rest of Asia looks to 
many to be ripe for Catholic evangelization.  South Korea, for 
example, has witnessed spectacular Catholic growth in recent 
years.  Elsewhere in Asia, the Holy See has taken a low key 
approach to missionary activity over the past 20 years that has 
left church personnel and members relatively unscathed by 
government crackdowns, but has also impeded real growth for the 
Church in the region.  The electors will therefore want the next 
Pope to give a push to his missionary department in countries 
 
 
like India, Indonesia and China, hoping that the successes of 
the Church in South Korea can be repeated.  The next pope will 
also be charged with healing the diplomatic impasse with China 
in order to expand the Church's presence there.  An Asian pope, 
perhaps someone like Bombay's Cardinal Ivan Dias, would ensure 
that the Asian frontier is crossed with greater missionary 
fervor. 
 
-------------------------------- 
STANDING FIRM AGAINST SECULARISM 
-------------------------------- 
 
9. (SBU) In face of increasing secularism and what many in the 
Church regard as anti-clericalism and anti-Catholicism, the 
College of Cardinals will be looking for a Pope they believe 
will stand firm against these pressures and staunchly defend the 
Church's beliefs against abortion, euthanasia, the death 
penalty, same-sex marriage, and on behalf of a "culture of life" 
and traditional family values.  John Paul II placed these issues 
at the front and center of his papacy, and the Cardinal electors 
he picked almost universally share his views on these issues. 
His successor will be expected to continue high-profile 
celebrations of the family on the various continents, and to 
press governments for legislation to support family stability 
and development.  Cardinals who have publicly, passionately, and 
effectively advocated these core beliefs -- including Cardinal 
Hummes of Brazil, Norbert Rivera of Mexico, and Scola of Venice 
-- will almost certainly gain favor among the electors. 
 
---------------------------------- 
SHAPING THE FRONTIERS OF BIOETHICS 
---------------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) The Vatican's unusual public criticism of the handling 
of the Terri Schiavo case in Florida offers an indication of how 
many Cardinals might want the next pope to deal with issues of 
bioethics.  John Paul II spoke out often and forcefully about 
what he termed the "culture of death" that was overtaking the 
Western world in particular, and the cardinal electors will be 
looking for someone capable of taking on the powerful social, 
economic and moral forces at play as science presses the 
frontiers of eugenics, stem cell research, and human cloning. 
In this regard, Milan's Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, who was 
responsible for ghostwriting much of Pope John Paul II's work on 
bioethics, could win some votes.  Among the papabile, Tettamanzi 
has developed considerable expertise in issues relating to 
euthanasia and the care of the aged and dying.  The next pope 
will be expected to offer a strong voice to prick the conscience 
of a world in need of moral direction on these difficult 
scientific and ethical questions. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
INTER-RELIGIOUS AND ECUMENICAL DIALOGUE 
--------------------------------------- 
 
11. (SBU) Shaping the Holy See's relations with Islam is almost 
certain to be a central challenge for the next Pope, as Catholic 
communities are increasingly coexisting closely with Muslim 
communities in Europe, Africa, and Asia.  Pope John Paul II 
worked hard to build a dialogue with the Muslim world, becoming 
the first Pope to visit a mosque, address Muslim youth, and 
invite Imams to join him in a World Day of Peace in Assisi.  He 
succeeded in building bridges that helped convince many in the 
Muslim world that a clash of civilizations was not inevitable, 
and that Christianity and Islam could coexist with mutual 
respect for differences.  At the same time, the Holy See's 
Council for Inter-religious Dialogue languished in the latter 
years of John Paul II's pontificate, as the Holy See found it 
difficult to expand the dialogue beyond a few moderate Islamic 
voices.  Some Vatican officials have also begun to advocate a 
harder, less compromising line to press for religious freedom 
for Christians in Muslim countries.  A Pope with knowledge of 
the Islamic world and its challenges to Christianity could 
therefore be attractive to the electors.  This would tend to 
augur for a candidate from Africa or Europe with experience of 
Islam and a demonstrated ability to reach out to different 
religious communities while defending Catholic beliefs, such as 
Cardinal Arinze of Nigeria or Cardinal Scola of Venice. 
 
12.     (SBU) Dialogue with other Christian churches, in 
particular the Orthodox Church, will be a priority for the next 
papacy.  Relations with the Greek Orthodox have been marked by 
slow but steady progress.  By contrast, the Russian Orthodox 
Patriarch Alexy II, who was always suspicious of his fellow Slav 
 
John Paul II, is already calling for more "tact" from the next 
pope to remove the obstacles that separate the two churches.  It 
will take a man of considerable ecumenical skill to mend the 
fences with Russian Orthodoxy -- one of John Paul II's great 
unfinished projects -- at least until Alexy II himself passes 
from the scene.  The next pope will have to decide either to 
compromise and accommodate a petulant Russian Orthodoxy, or push 
back at the risk of putting off prospects for close cooperation 
to another papacy.  There are advocates of both views among the 
Cardinals.  Likewise, the dialogue with non-Orthodox Christians, 
Anglicans in particular, will be on the new Pope's agenda, but 
differences between Catholicism and mainline Protestantism are 
too great to be resolved even in the distant future.  The focus 
will more likely be on areas such as social justice and 
development issues where views are closer than in the 
theological realm. 
 
------------------- 
MANAGING THE CHURCH 
------------------- 
 
13. (SBU) One of the most frequent criticisms of Pope John Paul 
II was that he neglected the Church's internal management, 
leaving the Curia to run itself while he traveled the world as 
evangelizer-in-chief.  As a result, many of the non-Curial 
cardinal electors will be looking for a pope who will take a 
more hands-on approach and rein in the Curia's propensity to 
make decisions in Rome when they could just as well be made at 
the national or diocesan level.  The next pope will not want to 
hear the lament from bishops that "we are treated by Rome like 
glorified altar boys" heard by John Paul II during one difficult 
meeting during his pontificate.  Although officials in the Curia 
counter that the Church is already decentralized, with 
archdioceses acting with independent authority on most matters, 
calls for greater participation in shaping church decisions from 
the pews to the bishops have been persistent, and the next Pope 
will need to address this desire for greater involvement.  This 
is especially so because of the geographically distinct 
challenges the church faces and the need to respond with 
regionally tailored strategies. 
 
14. (SBU) Leadership roles for lay people and for women in 
particular will also be high on the next pope's agenda.  Some 
modest steps were made during John Paul II's papacy (including 
promoting women to senior Vatican positions), but the new 
pontificate will want to ensure these are not seen as tokenism 
but rather as a genuine attempt to achieve the inclusiveness 
enshrined in the official teachings of the Church.  A Pope with 
creative ideas for deepening lay engagement and expanding the 
role of women in the church, would appeal to many -- though 
certainly not all -- electors. 
 
-------------------------- 
INTERACTING WITH THE WORLD 
-------------------------- 
 
15. (SBU) The Holy See under John Paul II has greatly expanded 
its international engagement, now maintaining diplomatic 
relations with 174 countries.  It plays an active role in 
international debates such as the war in Iraq, terrorism, ethnic 
and regional conflicts, and human cloning.  Papal travel has 
also contributed to the Holy See's international influence, as 
the Pope has brought his message of peace, reconciliation, 
freedom, and respect for human rights and religious freedom 
directly and dramatically to countries even without large 
Catholic populations.  The Cardinal electors will certainly want 
to build on this foundation and maintain the Holy See's position 
as a moral voice on the international scene.  For example, in 
the face of continued terrorist threats, the next Pope will be 
expected to speak out forcefully to denounce the abuse of 
religion to justify terrorist violence.  He will be expected to 
be active in pressing for peace in the Middle East and 
protecting Catholic interests in the Holy Lands.  And, he will 
be expected actively to promote the Holy See's vision of the 
centrality of the human person and his or her dignity. 
 
16. (SBU) Given this prominent international role as the Holy 
See's chief diplomat, the Cardinal electors will be seeking a 
Pope who will be comfortable engaging world leaders and who will 
be able to cultivate effective diplomatic partnerships within 
the international community.  He must be able to project the 
Holy See's views on the international public stage, forcefully 
opposing oppression and poverty, promoting religious tolerance 
and freedom, and building respect for human dignity. 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
17.  (SBU) No matter who is elected Pope in the days ahead, the 
U.S. and Holy See will continue to share common interests in 
promoting human dignity, freedom, democracy, and sustainable 
development, breaking down religious and cultural divisions, and 
standing up for the disadvantaged and oppressed.  The new Pope 
will inevitably bring a new style and temperament to the papacy, 
and will bring to bear a different set of historical and 
cultural experiences that will shape his world view and attitude 
toward the U.S.  We should reach out early in the new 
pontificate with a high level visit that can begin to shape a 
common agenda on the issues where we share similar goals, 
particularly in promoting democracy and religious freedom, 
overcoming terror, advancing the Middle East peace process, 
stabilizing Iraq, and meeting humanitarian and developmental 
challenges. 
 
 
NNNN 

 2005VATICA00465 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED