US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2866

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002866 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: INDIA UPBEAT ON MUSHARRAF MINI-SUMMIT, BUT KEEPING 
EXPECTATIONS LOW 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2862 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 2631 
     C. NEW DELHI 1736 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: India is expecting a successful April 16-18 
visit by the Pakistan President, largely because Musharraf 
has laid out positive and realistic goals that mesh with New 
Delhi's.  The Reuters interview he gave on the eve of his 
departure was music to India's ears, and was taken here as an 
indication that Musharraf wants to bury his reputation as a 
commando who prefers tactical political maneuvers over 
building a mature relationship with India.  Still, bearing in 
mind the disastrous Agra summit, the GOI has tried to keep 
expectations low, explaining that the criteria for a 
successful visit will not be signed accords but incremental 
improvement in a warming bilateral relationship.  The GOI, 
from the Foreign Minister down, has accepted that Kashmir 
will be on the agenda, and the LOC bus is a success for which 
both sides can claim credit, but Musharraf will also hear the 
reaffirmation of the Indian mantra that there can be no 
further partitions.  End Summary. 
 
Saying What India Wanted to Hear 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Musharraf's April 14 Reuters interview has had a 
major impact on Indian expectations for his visit -- he said 
what India wanted to hear.  A list of sound bites that 
resonated particularly well include: 
 
-- A good-natured remark that he hopes his Delhi trip 
"doesn't turn out like Agra," a reference to the disastrous 
July 2001 summit. 
 
-- His reference to transforming the LOC into a "soft 
border," a concept that Manmohan Singh and others in the GOI 
have long pushed; 
 
-- Positive statements on CBMs, including expanding cross-LOC 
transportation links; and 
 
-- Publicly setting expectations low for his official 
meetings ("If we strike some common ground ... that is the 
maximum one can expect"). 
 
India Seeing "A Different General" 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Many Delhi-based Pakistan-watchers have admitted to 
us that their perceptions of Musharraf have changed markedly 
since 2001.  References to Musharraf as "the architect of 
Kargil" who anointed himself President just prior to the Agra 
Summit have largely been replaced by grudging 
characterizations of him as an emerging statesman with whom 
"India can do business," as PM Singh said after their 
September meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA.  Our 
interlocutors say that the 17-month-long cross-LOC 
cease-fire, his positive meetings in 2004 with Prime 
Ministers Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, the dramatic decreases 
in (though not elimination of) Kashmir-oriented terrorism and 
cross-border infiltration, a dip in Kashmir-related 
demagoguery, and progress on CBMs including the successful 
launch of the cross-LOC bus (Ref B), have been key in their 
reassessment.  In a recent meeting with the Ambassador (Ref 
A), Natwar Singh warmly credited Musharraf for defying those 
in the GOP establishment who opposed the Kashmir bus. 
 
4.  (C) Musharraf's interview has helped to further change 
his image in the Indian mind.  For example, veteran 
strategist C. Raja Mohan commented on April 15 that "A 
Different General Returns to a Transformed India." 
"Hindustan Times" Associate Editor Vinod Sharma added that 
the interview was "a happy augury" of changing perceptions 
from Musharraf as "a swashbuckling general to a Head of State 
working for peace."  Sharma also pointed out to Poloff that 
Musharraf's dispatching of his mother, brother and son as "an 
advance team" went a long way to "soften his image." 
 
5.  (C) Indian commentators are expecting that Musharraf will 
avoid what the pro-BJP "Pioneer" has characterized as "the 
potential of the wily General to spring surprises: ugly ones 
like Agra, uncomfortable ones like the Kathmandu handshake 
(at the January 2002 SAARC summit), or googlies like his 
(October 2004) Kashmir formula."  Although an aide to PM 
Singh told the "Times of India" that the GOI hopes Musharraf 
will "resist the temptation of playing to the galleries back 
home," and Natwar Singh visibly cringed when predicting to 
the Ambassador Musharraf's Kashmir pitch (Ref A), GOI Kashmir 
Interlocutor NN Vohra acknowledged to DAS Gastright and 
D/PolCouns on April 13 that India accepts Musharraf's need to 
maintain a somewhat hard line on Kashmir "for his domestic 
politics." 
 
GOI Managing Expectations 
------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The GOI has been assiduously attempting to lower 
expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough during this visit, 
with PM Manmohan Singh stressing that it will be "not a state 
visit but an informal one," although President Kalam will 
host a lunch in Musharraf's honor and the PM will host a 
dinner.  "We don't want unnecessary hype, we want a 
meaningful and substantial meeting," PM Media Adviser Sanjaya 
Baru shared on April 14. 
 
7.  (C) The GOI mantra characterizing this visit has been a 
repeat of the formulation used for Natwar Singh's February 
15-17 trip to Islamabad, "expect neither a breakthrough nor a 
breakdown."  This theme carried into NSA Narayanan's April 10 
comment on "Star News" that the important outcome would be an 
improvement in bilateral relations "by even some percentage 
points."  Vohra echoed this notion by suggesting that 
Musharraf should look for "small steps (i.e. CBMs) we can 
take without falling down." 
 
Predicting the Agenda 
--------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Indian press reports that Musharraf's entourage could 
be as large as 50 with a half dozen Cabinet ministers, 
suggesting that the GOI may need to be prepared to respond to 
a significant offer if he makes one.  The Pakistani media 
cadre, said to number over 30, has led to speculation that a 
special announcement is planned (Natwar also brought a large 
press contingent with him to Pakistan for the February 16 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus announcement). 
 
9.  (C) NSA Narayanan told reporters on April 15 that in 
addition to discussing Kashmir, the GOI would recommend new 
CBMs in the form of more cross-LOC bus routes and 
facilitating reunions for divided Kashmiri families, items 
that have been on New Delhi's agenda for months but which may 
have found new life following the successful 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus launch.  Indo-Pakistan watchers 
speculate that the time may also be ripe to open the 
Khokhrapar-Munnabao road linking Rajasthan and Sindh while 
work progresses on opening the rail link between those cities 
by October (Ref C).  Dissecting what it claimed was the 
entourage list, which included the Defense Secretary and the 
Ministers of State for Religious and Youth Affairs, the 
"Pioneer" has predicted that Siachen Glacier and new 
people-to-people CBMs may feature on the agenda. 
 
10.  (C) Less speculation is required to know who Musharraf 
will meet with.  In addition to the expected events and 
discussions with PM Singh and FM Natwar Singh, Musharraf will 
meet President APJ Kalam and Congress Party leader Sonia 
Gandhi, as well as former PM Vajpayee and Opposition Leader 
and former Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani.  Separate 
Hurriyat factions plan to meet with Musharraf on April 17 -- 
first the moderates, then the pro-Pakistan hardliner SAS 
Geelani, who is increasingly isolated in his criticism of 
Indo-Pak rapprochement, including the cross-LOC bus service. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (C) By disposing one of the GOI's biggest fears for the 
cricket summit -- a replay of Agra -- Musharraf set the stage 
for what is widely expected to be a useful visit.  As with 
other recent steps forward in Indo-Pak relations, this visit 
was initially opposed by the MEA bureaucracy, which was 
forced to go along after PM Media Adviser Sanjaya Baru 
announced in late March that the Pakistani President would be 
welcome to visit.  Indo-Pak summits usually are accompanied 
by intense anticipation of a significant breakthrough, but 
Musharraf's echoing of GOI efforts to keep expectations low 
suggests that, even absent major deliverables, this 
mini-summit will not be deemed a failure, at least as viewed 
from Delhi. 
BLAKE