US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA1134

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001134 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2015 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, PREL, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, Stephen Harper 
SUBJECT: HAS THE CAMPAIGN STARTED? 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reason, 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The phony war between the Conservatives and 
Liberals broke out into open trench warfare April 13 as the 
PM turned a direct question on his relationship with a key 
figure in the sponsorship scandal into an attempted grilling 
of Conservative leader Harper on the Conservative health care 
agenda.  It could be seen as the opening salvo in the 
election campaign, which some analysts believe is likely to 
take place in late June unless something dramatic happens to 
change the political dynamic.  The Liberal strategy, 
according to US-Canada Parliamentary Secretary Marlene 
Jennings, is for the Grits to take their lumps over Gomery, 
but continue to present themselves as the party that will 
best guard Canadians, standard of living and tolerant social 
values against the unknowns of the Conservatives (better the 
scandal you know than the party you don,t know).  Two key 
issues for the Liberals will be the Conservative Party,s 
&hidden agenda8 on health care, which received a boost 
today from a report issued by a Conservative think tank 
recommending rolling back the Canada Health Act; and national 
unity, with the Liberals raising the specter of an empowered 
Bloc Quebecois governing in coalition with the Conservatives. 
 End Summary 
 
And They,re Off 
--------------- 
 
2. (C) Question Period Wednesday and Thursday was as good as 
it gets for high drama and intensity.  On Wednesday, the 
Conservatives could barely contain themselves as members 
finished their opening statements.  Opposition Leader Harper 
immediately pounced on the question they initially raised 
earlier in the week and are determined to have answered -- 
did the PM ever dine with ad executive Claude Boulay while 
Finance Minister?  The question earlier in the week addressed 
whether the PM might have influenced contracts but now the 
Tories wanted a simple yes or no to whether the two had ever 
met.  Minister of Public Works Scott Brison, whose portfolio 
includes sponsorship, has been the go-to guy for such 
questions throughout the week, but the PM answered this one 
himself.  After a mild dismissal of the real question, he 
launched a question of his own for the Conservative Leader. 
Will the Opposition Leader come clean with the Canadian 
people about his real agenda on health care?  He then stated 
unequivocally that he and the Liberal Party would defend 
Canada,s health care system. 
 
3. (C) The Boulay question was asked three more times by 
Harper and others, and each time the PM immediately deflected 
the issue and went on to accuse the Conservatives of wanting 
to undercut the Canadian health care system.  House Speaker 
Milliken had a difficult time keeping order, and gently 
chastised the PM for avoiding the question.  Conservative 
James Moore, a young member whose direct, unflinching style, 
is winning him a place as the party attack dog, also asked 
the question, and when the PM again used the opportunity to 
tout health care, called his answers &pathetic,8 piling on 
to Stephen Harper,s contention that if the issues were not 
so serious the PM risked making himself into a &national 
joke.8  Conservative Jason Kenney again asked the direct 
question about the PM,s meeting with Boulay, and suggested 
that the PM may have perjured himself by the way in which he 
answered the question.  (Note: it was fairly clear to an 
honest observer that, judging from the way he answered the 
question, the PM has met with Boulay.  End Note) 
 
RALLYING THE TROOPS 
------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) It was not a good day for the Liberals, and the PM 
later tried to buck up the Liberal caucus, telling them not 
to be too concerned with the defection of several members of 
the caucus (MP David Kilgour abandoned the Liberal Party to 
become an independent and Ontario,s Pat O,Brien was 
considering leaving, also he later confirmed he would stay 
with the Liberals).  He stressed that if they stay the 
course, presenting themselves as the party that can best 
preserve the Canadian standard of living and national unity, 
they will come out on top. 
 
5. (C) US-Canada Parliamentary Secretary Marlene Jennings 
reiterated this strategy to Poloff in a meeting April 14, 
saying that it was not the Liberals, decision but they were 
fairly well resigned to going to elections.  She said that it 
was clear the Liberal Party would take its lumps at the 
polls, but also believed that when Canadians stopped to look 
closely at both parties, they would see that the Liberals 
were the party that would deliver on the issues that matter 
to them, particularly health care and social programs.  We 
also met briefly with Minister for Public Works Scott Brison, 
who was gearing up for another brutal Question Period but 
expressed confidence that if they can stick to their key 
themes the Liberals will weather the storm. 
 
THE HIDDEN AGENDA 
----------------- 
 
6. (C) While the PM,s performance in Question Period was 
somewhat bizarre, in the end he may have achieved his 
objective.  He was probably banking on the fact that most 
Canadians do not watch Question Period, but will see it 
reflected the next day in the papers or excerpted on the 
news.  By raising health care, regardless of how he did it, 
the issue is now out there, and the Liberals can start to 
shape the debate.  The hidden agenda on health care Martin 
alludes to a report prepared by former Ontario conservative 
Premier Mike Harris and former Opposition Leader Preston 
Manning called &A Canada Strong and Free8 
(www.fraserinstitute.ca/pdf/CSF-Eng.pdf), issued under the 
auspices of the Conservative Fraser Institute. 
 
7. (U) Editorials by Harris and Manning today scripted their 
study, which indeed calls for the elimination of the federal 
role in health-care management and financing.  The report,s 
recommendations are intended to preserve Canada,s universal 
coverage while improving the delivery of medical services, 
but they would do so by dismantling the Health Canada Act, 
one of the most popular social programs in the country. 
Harper distanced himself from the report, knowing this is an 
issue that will resonate with voters. 
 
8. (SBU) The other issue that the Liberals will hit hard is 
national unity.  The PM continued to lump the Conservatives 
and the Bloc together in an unholy alliance, saying in a 
prepared statement, &if Stephen Harper and the Bloc 
Quebecois are going to come together to force an election, 
then there is going to be an election.8  The Liberals will 
continue to flog the issue that in order to govern, the 
Conservatives will have to team up with and empower the Bloc, 
promoting separatism in the process. 
 
JUNE ELECTION COMING? 
--------------------- 
 
9. (C) Political analysts seem to be in agreement that a June 
election is now likely.  Stephen Harper opened the door for 
this when he said April 13 that he did not believe it was 
necessary for the Gomery inquiry to finish its work before 
the Canadian people make a decision on what it means for the 
Liberal,s ability to govern.  Political analyst Bruce 
Campbell, who as late as Friday was making the case for no 
elections this year, now says conservative strategists have 
indicated an election will almost certainly take place 
between mid-June and late June &unless something dramatic 
happens that convinces the Conservatives not to force an 
election.8  He believes the Conservatives and Bloc will 
table a no-confidence vote at some point after mid-May.  A 
staffer in Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer,s office actually 
did the math, and after taking out holidays, considering the 
Queen,s visit, and looking at the 36 days necessary for the 
campaign, came up with June 27th as the most likely date for 
an election. 
 
10. (C) Comment: There are still a few off-ramps to the 
scenario of a spring election, but the momentum is definitely 
moving in that direction.  The Conservatives have several 
weeks to make a firm decision and will carefully follow the 
polls during that time.  While the Canadian people are still 
expressing no desire for a snap election, polls now indicate 
a shift away from health care as the most important problem 
to that of ethics, which would be encouraging for 
Conservative strategists.  At some point, positive numbers or 
not, the question of Conservative credibility will be called 
into question if they do not formally give a voice to the 
Canadian people,s growing lack of confidence in their 
government. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
DICKSON