US embassy cable - 05PARIS2579

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 PARIS 002579 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EB/IFD 
TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF 
SECDEF FOR USDP/DSAA 
PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS -- EDELARIVA 
PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/DERICKSON/KCHADWICK 
PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS 
PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN, ECON, EAID, XM, XA, XH, XB, XF, FR 
SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - MARCH 2005 TOUR D'HORIZON, PART I 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (U) Following are summaries of country discussions 
during the March 9-10, 2005 Paris Club session.  The 
Paris Club's President, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, chaired the 
session.  Secretary General (SecGen) Emmanuel Moulin 
represented the Secretariat.  Representatives of non- 
Paris Club members Brazil, Israel, Korea and Turkey 
attended discussions on those countries to which they are 
creditors.  This section, Part I, includes countries 
Angola-Honduras; Part II includes countries Iraq-Sao Tome 
and Principe; Part III includes countries Serbia- 
Zimbabwe, as well as methodological discussions on 
improving HIPC debt relief and avoiding prepayment costs. 
 
2. (U) NOTE: INDIVIDUAL CREDITOR POSITIONS REPORTED IN 
THIS MESSAGE SHOULD BE TREATED AS "PARIS CLUB 
CONFIDENTIAL" AND NOT/NOT DISCUSSED WITH DEBTOR COUNTRY 
 
SIPDIS 
REPRESENTATIVES, NOR WITH NON-PARIS CLUB PARTICIPANTS. 
 
3. (SBU) Discussed in this session: 
 
Angola -- IMF Update (Brazil) 
Argentina -- Upcoming negotiation (Israel) 
Chad - IMF update, extension of the current agreement 
China -- possible accession 
Dominican Republic -- IMF Update, upcoming negotiation 
Guinea -- IMF update (Brazil) 
Honduras -- IMF update, phase 2 implementation, 
completion point calendar 
Iraq -- IMF update (Korea) 
Jordan -- IMF update, phase 2 entry-into-force 
Kyrgyz Republic -- Upcoming negotiation (Turkey) 
Liberia - request for data assistance 
Nigeria -- 2005 debt repayment schedule (Brazil/Israel) 
Nicaragua -- Comparability of Treatment with Brazil 
Peru -- buyback, Secretariat report (Brazil) 
Poland -- Prepayments (Brazil) 
Russia -- Buyback proposal 
Rwanda -- IMF update, completion point calendar 
Sao Tome and Principe -- IMF update, financing assurances 
Serbia and Montenegro -- IMF update, phase 2 entry-into- 
force 
Sudan -- IMF update (Brazil) 
Tsunami-affected countries -- IMF update, follow up 
 
SIPDIS 
actions, requests from Sri Lanka and Indonesia 
Zambia -- IMF update, completion point calendar 
Zimbabwe - - IMF update, arrears and payments (Brazil) 
 
4. (U) ACTION/FOLLOW-UP/UPCOMING ITEMS 
 
Methodology -- Possible publication of rules concerning 
buybacks and prepayments; new HIPC debt relief initiative 
 
April negotiation -- Peru buyback 
 
TBD negotiation -- Russia buyback 
 
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ANGOLA 
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5. (SBU) The IMF reported that the Board discussed 
Article IV last week.  The IMF welcomes the peace, 
economic performance, transparency, and structural 
reforms.  An agreement for a Staff Monitored Program 
(SMP) could help, according to the Board, to lay the 
groundwork for donors and external creditors.  A mission 
will visit in April on the SMP. 
 
6. (SBU) The World Bank representative said that the 
Board approved an interim strategy to provide basic 
services.  The Bank is looking at the investment climate, 
and a consultant is looking at the linkage between the 
poverty reduction strategy and the budget. 
 
7. (SBU) The Secretariat reported that it had held a 
meeting with the Angolan authorities, who had outlined 
their progress.  The Angolans reported that they are 
about to complete bilateral agreements with non-Paris 
Club members Hungary and Bulgaria, and maybe China.  They 
want a debt treatment without the IMF.  The Secretariat 
pointed out that Paris Club principles, especially 
linkage to an IMF program, conditionality and 
Comparability of Treatment (CoT), make a deal difficult. 
The Angolans still think it is possible to treat the debt 
without the IMF (cf. LUANDA 367).  The Secretariat has no 
sense that there will be a rapid resolution, but in any 
event, dialogue has been established. 
 
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ARGENTINA 
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8. (SBU) The IMF observed that "there is much to say, but 
maybe it is premature to say anything."  The Board met 
last week on the debt exchange offer.  Argentina's fiscal 
performance is strong; it is running a fiscal surplus of 
5.4% of GDP.  It has made no structural reforms. 
According to preliminary data released March 3rd, the 
debt exchange offer had achieved a 76% participation rate 
of eligible debt (USD 62 billion, not including 19.6 
billion of "ineligible" debt and 5 billion in arrears). 
Is too early to know what will happen next.  The Managing 
Director met with the Finance Minister on Sunday, March 6 
and technical discussions will continue in DC over the 
next few weeks.  No agreement has been reached about 
Article IV.  The Argentineans have not said what else 
they want.  They continue to pay the fund.  A USD 145 
million repurchase expectation payment was made and 
another 145 million payment is expected today.  Argentina 
owes the fund USD 5.6 billion in debt servicing payments. 
 
9. (SBU) The World Bank noted that the way forward is 
unclear.  Structural reforms have been slow, especially 
with the utility.  Further lending this year depends on 
what happens with the IMF. 
 
10. (SBU) The Secretariat said that our situation also 
depends on the Fund.  It had prepared a draft letter 
encouraging Argentina to resume discussion with the Paris 
Club on the basis of an IMF-supported program and to meet 
its obligations to Paris Club creditors, and seeks 
reactions. 
 
11. (SBU) Germany said it strongly supports the letter, 
which has a good friendly tone. 
 
12. (SBU) Italy observed that it was premature for the 
Paris Club to send any signal, in particular a friendly 
gesture, towards Argentina.  Argentina has not yet 
approached the Paris Club, and Italy is not suggesting 
that they do so. 
 
13. (SBU) The USDEL voiced concern over sending the wrong 
signals to Argentina and said that it was not really 
within the purview of the Paris Club to prescribe a 
course of action to Argentina that would increase the 
IMF's exposure to the country.  It is up to Argentina to 
make the first gesture. He suggested that an appropriate 
form of approach to Argentina would be simply be to 
remind the country of the need for it to meet its 
financial obligations to creditors. 
14. (SBU) The Netherlands agrees, but prefers that a 
letter be sent. 
 
15. (SBU) Japan said that the Paris Club should just 
write a letter telling Argentina to repay. 
 
16. (SBU) The UK said it is clear the Paris Club should 
not endorse what has or is about to happen.  It prefers a 
concise letter. 
 
17. (SBU) The President noted the consensus to draft a 
more severe letter, and after clarification from Italy 
that there is no consensus to send a letter at this time, 
agreed to wait until the suitable moment. 
 
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CHAD 
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18. (SBU) The IMF said the Board approved on February 16 
a new Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF). 
Assistance to strengthen fiscal management relies on HIPC 
debt relief.  The first review will take place in the 
summer of 2005.  The World Bank rep noted that the Chad 
pipeline is flowing but oil revenues are already 
allocated. 
 
19. (SBU) The President noted the consensus to grant Chad 
an extension through September 30, 2005 thanks to the 
approval of a new PRGF. 
 
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CHINA 
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20. (SBU) The President reported that the Secretariat has 
made no progress on collecting data regarding China's 
debt position.  He proposed that the Presidency write a 
letter to China to open the dialogue and circulated a 
draft for consideration. 
 
21. (SBU) The IMF reported it is preparing for Article IV 
consultations in May to cover the macroeconomic policies 
and economic opening.  The World Bank rep noted that 
China is the Bank's largest borrower, with USD 21 billion 
combined IBRD/IDA exposure.  Although it is no longer 
eligible for IDA loans, it is still active with the IBRD, 
which anticipates another 1.3 to 1.4 billion this year. 
The Chinese have made a large prepayment of high-fixed- 
interest rate loans. 
 
22. (SBU) Russia said it generally supports the idea of 
maintaining a dialogue with China given its increasing 
role as a creditor.  It will be important to establish 
contact in the near future.  The first meeting should 
include all creditors to be acceptable to Russia.  The 
best place for that would be in Paris.  The meeting would 
be political, not technical. 
 
23. (SBU) Germany said it thinks it important to consider 
the wish of China to join the Paris Club.  However, the 
Paris Club should not be too hasty, as it does not yet 
have enough information.  China has not yet even made an 
official request, so it would be best to keep any talks 
informal with just the President.  Germany needs a formal 
request first.  It remembers that when Russia was 
invited, the Club was very sensitive to the first steps. 
With China it will be even more delicate, as Germany has 
no idea whether the Chinese respect Paris Club 
principles. 
 
24. (SBU) The UK argued that a small informal approach is 
best, and more time is needed to consider a letter of 
invitation. 
 
25.  (SBU) The USDEL agreed that caution is needed. 
Although the USG shared the general sentiment in favor of 
seeking means to further integrate China into the world 
economy, a letter at this time would be premature. 
Creditors should have a detailed assessment of China's 
position as an official creditor; once such data were 
available, members could make an informed decision about 
how to proceed. 
 
26. (SBU) Italy agreed that the Club should not send any 
message.  Italy too would have liked to have data.  It 
can support a letter, with the Paris Club taking the 
first move, to take stock of what the Chinese think. 
China has said it would be willing to implement the HIPC 
initiative. 
 
27. (SBU) Japan supports sending a letter, but agrees 
that the first meeting should include all Paris Club 
creditors, and would like more data. 
 
28.  (SBU) Australia said it is cautious but positive, 
with caution about how China might affect the consensus. 
 
29. (SBU) Canada said it is not sure if it is too early 
to send a letter but is positive to the idea.  It needs 
more information and the Chinese need to know their 
obligations. 
 
30. (SBU) The President noted the consensus that 
integrating China is important, but the lack of consensus 
about everything else.  He also raised the conundrum of 
the IMF saying no official request for data has been 
made, so it is difficult for the IMF to collect data. 
The IMF clarified that in order for the exercise to be 
useful, the Chinese should view the request in a positive 
fashion.  The topic cannot simply be tacked onto the 
Article IV consultations.  The President suggested the 
Secretariat would try to redraft a letter to be 
 
SIPDIS 
circulated for comments. 
 
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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
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31. (SBU) The IMF reported that the Board approved a new 
Stand-By on January 31.  Staff will visit next week to 
discuss the Metro project.  The GoDR would like staff to 
participate in its roadshow, and the IMF is amenable. 
The GoDR understands it needs financing for its 2005 
programs.  The GoDR authorities are confident that 
commercial bank reschedulings will be initiated in early 
April.  As of February 21, the GoDR has USD 56 million in 
arrears to the banks.  The GoDr expects to launch its 
bond exchange by the end of March, and anticipates a high 
level of participation; the Secretariat was less 
sanguine.  Exact timing of the launch depends on 
congressional approval. 
 
32. (SBU) The World Bank rep said the Bank had disbursed 
two conditional tranches in 2004, and was finishing 
another USD 25 million for electricity that week. Another 
25 million is earmarked for the social sector, 3 of 8 
conditions are completed but progress is good so the Bank 
expects to disburse the funds in April.  It is also 
working on a power-sector loan of USD 150 million, which 
should go to the Board in June, subject to congressional 
passage of enabling legislation.  Power shortages 
continue. 
 
33. (SBU) The Secretariat reported that only one 
bilateral agreement has been completed.  The Secretariat 
can check on CoT in May and perhaps aim for a negotiation 
in June. 
 
34. (SBU) Belgium reported new post-ccod arrears of USD 
2.9 million from the Health Ministry (but noted it was 
only an observer to the last Agreed Minute). 
 
35. (SBU) Norway said that the GoDR's technical default 
of USD 7 million has been preliminarily resolved; if an 
agreement is concluded there will be no actual default. 
Norway would appreciate that the IMF and the Paris Club 
communicate its concerns. 
 
36. (SBU) The President noted the consensus to 
communicate concerns about arrears to the GoDR. 
 
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GUINEA 
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37. (SBU) The IMF reported that Guinea has accumulated 
short-term arrears, but hopes they will be cleared soon. 
The World Bank rep remarked that Guinea routinely accrues 
arrears for 30 days at a time; it appears to be rolling 
over its arrears but always stays short of the 45-day 
limit.  It is operating in a low lending scenario, with 
support restricted to vital sectors and no budget support 
whatsoever. 
 
38. (SBU) Russia reported arrears are accumulating.  It 
will continue to monitor. 
 
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HONDURAS 
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39. (SBU) The IMF reported that the PRGF is on track as 
was achievement of HIPC completion point.  The second 
review and completion date is scheduled to come to the 
Board on March 30.  No topping up will be needed.  There 
is, however, one technical point: a revision of the 
database in NPV of a USD 30 million decrease.  Under HIPC 
rules, the country is not obligated to accept the change, 
and Honduras does not, therefore there will be no 
revision. 
 
40. (SBU) The World Bank rep said the Board date is set 
for April 5.  IBRD claims are significant and so the Bank 
will deliver relief against these with an IDA credit.  In 
the decision point document, the Bank had envisioned 
these would be delivered in their entirety, however, 
because of the delay and the maximizing of interim 
relief, interim relief was not enough.  Residual debt 
relief will be delivered on a reduction of the debt 
service on the IDA portfolio. 
 
41. (SBU) The Secretariat noted that an April negotiation 
might be possible, but it will need to further refine the 
timeframe.  There will be no fiscal impact if the 
negotiation takes place in May. 
 
Baghdad minimize considered. 
LEACH