US embassy cable - 05FRANKFURT2973

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 002973 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, GM 
SUBJECT: Torch Passing in Conservative Bastion:  Baden- 
Wuerttemberg Minister-President Designate Oettinger 
 
REF:  04 Frankfurt 10621 (lists previous reftels) 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  On April 21, Baden-Wuerttemberg CDU 
(Christian Democratic) caucus chief Guenther Oettinger will 
succeed Erwin Teufel as Minister-President.  Oettinger, a 
lawyer and business expert, will likely retain Teufel's 
cabinet through state elections in March 2006.  Observers 
expect Oettinger to infuse the party with new ideas and 
energy and to extend its dominance in next year's state 
elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) For decades, the CDU has held power (alone or in 
coalition) in Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W), one of Germany's 
economic centers (as home to Daimler-Chrysler and other 
leading industrial groups).  In December 2004, Oettinger won 
the right to succeed Teufel in an unprecedented, non-binding 
CDU membership referendum (by twenty points over State 
Education Minister Annette Schavan).  He was formally named 
standard-bearer for the 2006 state elections at a special 
CDU convention (with a convincing 94.7% of the vote). 
Oettinger's ascent had been widely expected:  since becoming 
CDU caucus chairman in 1991, Oettinger had laid the basis to 
succeed M-P Teufel.  Two years ago, he privately emphasized 
to us the importance of Teufel making way for a new CDU 
minister-president prior to state elections in 2006. 
 
3.  (SBU) Insiders see Oettinger as an astute and ambitious 
politician but not always a charismatic speaker.  Oettinger 
is a political survivor who outlasted Teufel's antagonism 
over the past decade.  When M-P Teufel failed to get a 
majority on the first parliamentary ballot in 1996, he 
accused Oettinger of plotting against him, an accusation 
Teufel repeated over the years.  Teufel made no secret of 
his preference for Schavan over Oettinger (reftel). 
 
4.  (SBU) Oettinger belongs to the liberal wing of the CDU 
and gained nationwide recognition early in his political 
career.  As chairman of the state Junge Union (Young 
Conservatives) from 1983 to 1989, Oettinger publicly 
declared in 1988 that then-Chancellor Kohl's best days had 
passed and suggested that Kohl step down.  Oettinger was 
first elected to the B-W State Parliament in 1984.  In 2001, 
he became chairman of the influential North-Wuerttemberg 
chapter of the B-W CDU (on April 29, Oettinger will also 
assume the position of B-W CDU state chairman).  Oettinger 
is a tactician rather than an ideologue;  as early as 1992, 
he suggested that the CDU could go into coalition with the B- 
W Greens under the right conditions.  Privately, Oettinger 
emphasizes that the CDU is a "people's party" that must 
consider the effects of economic reform on average Germans. 
 
5.  (SBU) Oettinger was born in Stuttgart on October 15, 
1953.  He is married to Inken Oettinger (nee Stange), a 
fashion designer.  The couple have one son.  He plays piano 
and guitar and enjoys attending rock concerts.  Oettinger is 
a former IV recipient whose three-week stay in the U.S. 
during his time as Junge Union chairman left a deep 
impression on him, shaping his view of the U.S. in very 
positive ways.  He speaks good English (albeit with a 
pronounced Swabian accent). 
 
6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Oettinger's top priority for the next 
twelve months will be winning the March 2006 state elections 
with an absolute majority if possible (the CDU's state 
coalition partner, the FDP, is mired in scandals). 
Political insiders expect Oettinger to be more active on the 
national level (i.e. in the Bundesrat) and to try to 
increase the CDU's appeal to urban constituents who now vote 
largely Green or Social Democratic.  Oettinger likely will 
place one or two confidants in key positions but keep most 
of the current cabinet through next year's elections. 
Supporters claim that Oettinger will reenergize politics and 
borrow ideas from various political parties (not just his 
own) to tackle the state's long-term economic, demographic, 
and fiscal problems.  END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE